August 8 2023 Hawaii Fires

Paper Figures

Latest versionDescriptionprevious version, loops, or other
Figure 1 all in one
updated 2/14/2024
Map of Hawaii with fires and zoom in on Maui and NW corner of big island. rev3 now includes a white dot for Lanai airport location. Figure 1 rev2
Old Figure 1a and powerpoint for figures 1 and 2
Figure 2a rev3
updated 2/14/2024
Terrain map with mentioned geographic areas and sounding locations. rev3 now includes Maalaea and Wailea which are mentioned in the text. Figure 2a rev2
loop of small versions
loop of big versions
loop terrain figures
Figure 8 visible satellite images: 1500x980 per image
updated 2/6/2024 with more prominent map
two visible satellite images from 1900 UTC on 7 Aug and 8 Aug other versions, also updated 2/6/2024: 500x327 per image, 2000x1307 per image, 3000x1961 per image, 4000x2615 per image, 6000x3922 per image, 9000x5833 per image
This used to be figure 7.
figure 9 Lihue and Hilo soundings to 340 hPa
updated 2/14/2024
soundings from Lihue and Hilo with filtered wind barbs previous version to 380 hPa
version with all wind barbs
figure 12 444m plots over West Maui
updated 2/6/2024
5-panel wind gust plots over Maui from 2023080800 444m WRF run, now with a white star indicating Lahaina NOTE: the caption in the submitted version of this paper incorrectly labelled the vectors as 10-m winds, but these are the actual winds at the level of the maximum wind within 250m of the surface, i.e., they are the barbs that correspond to the max wind.
This used to be figure 11.
figure 13 zoomed in 444m plots over West Maui
updated 2/14/2024
3 panels of WRF gusts with cross section location, SLP and 10m winds, and RH, more stations nowprevious version without all the stations
figure 14 vertical cross sections
updated 2/6/2024
Vertical cross sections of wind speed, potential temperature, and circulation vectors
figure 15 time-height sections
updated 2/6/2024
time-height sections at Upstream 444m domain, YSU case
figure 16 both panels
figure 16 left panel, Lanai City
figure 16 right panel, Kahului
updated 2/15/2024
444m domain, YSU case compared to observations
new figure 18 base plot
updated 2/14/2024
4/3-km domain cross section extending across Maui to Lanaired line for height of center of radar beam has been calculated using wrf-python to extend from 989.6m/908 mb at the left over Lanai to 1154m/889 mb over Lahaina based on the actual heights and pressures in the model run and the calculated center of the radar beam heights at the given lat/lon points
figure 19 full image updated 2/8/2024
    2 alternatives
  1. using 250m MODIS at full resolution
  2. using 125m MODIS at 40% resolution
  3. using 500m MODIS at full resolution
figure 18 right side with star
figure 18 right side without star
figure 18 colorbar
updated 2/7/2024
Full figure has MODIS image on left, WRF FHR=21 1.3-km sustained 10m winds on the right, and a colorbar. Valid 2100 UTC 8 AugI do not have a copy of the MODIS image to make the full figure.
These are using the same color scale for winds as all other plots.
figure 20 HRRR forecast Gust Potential
updated 2/6/2024
Lahaina now has starNOTE: for this figure, the colors are for Gust Potential, and the barbs are as well. I used the HRRR 10m Winds to get the direction and have plotted the gust potential speed with that direction.
This used to be figure 18.
figure 22 4/3-km WRF Gusts
updated 2/7/2024
4/3-km resolution WRF forecasts valid 17 UTC 8 Aug from 137-hr, 89-hr, 41-hr, and 17-hr forecasts. Lahaina has a star. Wind barbs and colors are for the level of max wind within 250m of surface. NOTE: These are the actual winds at the level of the maximum wind within 250m of the surface, i.e., they are the barbs that correspond to the max wind.
This used to be figure 20.
hee is the old version
figure 25 12-km 850-hPa winds near Hawaii for hurricane and no hurricane runs
updated 2/7/2024
12-km 850-hPa winds near Hawaii for hurricane and no hurricane runs.
Now with bold red map to better locate Hawaii.
original version
Used to be figure 23.
figure 26 4/3-km wind gusts near Hawaii for hurricane and no hurricane runs
updated 2/7/2024
WRF forecasts from 2023080300 runs at 4/3-km showing gusts (max wind within 250m) now with star at Lahaina and frame letters original without letters
same for the full 4/3-km domain
Used to be figure 24.
    Loops
  1. 1.a scatterplots of observed versus model predicted wind speeds and gusts
    1.b time-series plots of observed vs model wind speeds and gusts for Kohala Ranch, Puhe, and Tempest
    1.c plot METAR observed versus model predicted winds, temps, and RH and old version with peak winds for the purple sites on this map
    1.d Map of non-METAR Stations and gusts for each hour
  2. sample wind plots loop
  3. Max wind below 250m plots for Aug 03, 05, 07, 08 valid at 17 UTC 08 Aug as png (higher quality, added 11/27/2023) and Max wind below 250m plots for Aug 03, 05, 07, 08 valid at 17 UTC 08 Aug as jpegs (lower quality)
  4. 2023080700 runs: Plots at hour 36 for 36-km domain for both runs and Plots at hour 48 for 36-km domain for both runs
  5. 2023080700 runs: Difference Plots at hour 48 for 36-km domain (hurricane minus no hurricane)
  6. 2023080500 runs: Loop all hours and all difference plots for 36-km domain (hurricane minus no hurricane)
  7. Loop GFS 1/4-degree 850 mb Wind Speed Analyses Plots
    Loop GFS 1/4-degree SLP and 10-m Wind Speed Analyses Plots
  8. Compare Hurricane at 06Z 09 Aug between 2023080500 and 2023080700 runs: Loop with hurricane runs
  9. Loop 4/3-km RH plots
  10. Loop 4/3-km 700mb vertical velocity plots
  11. Loop 4/3-km max wind within 250m plots and Loop 4/3-km max wind with 250m of sfc zoomed in on Maui plots
  12. Loop 4/3-km ground temperature plots and Loop 4/3-km ground temperature zoomed in on Maui plots
  13. Loop 4/3-km hot-dry-windy plots
  14. Loop 4/3-km vertical cross section wind speed plots and Loop 4/3-km vertical cross section RH and horizontal wind plots
  15. Loop 4/3-km Upstream soundings plots
  16. Ran WRF 36/12-km domain from 2023080300 to 2023080912 with and without modified SST field
    normal setup except no FDDA, GFS boundary and initial conditions are from the GFS 1/4-degree analysis fields
    NOTE: even with normal SST field, hurrican is weak and too far east
    Loop WRF 36-km Hurricane/No Hurricane SLP plots
    compare to Loop GFS Analysis SLP standardized anomaly plots
  17. Loop plots of 444m terrain and terrain with cross section locations
    Loop plots of 444m SMOOTHED terrain and terrain with cross section locations
    Loop all 444m terrain plots
  18. Compare 444m ww_maxwind250 plots for smoothed vs non-smoothed terrain runs
  19. Possible wind plots for comparison to MODIS image and 10m wind all colormaps and maxwind250 all colormaps

  20. HRRR-HI Forecasts and Analyses:
    All HRRR-HI Plots
    All 2023080700 Maui HRRR-HI Plots
    All 2023080712 Maui HRRR-HI Plots
    All 2023080800 Maui HRRR-HI Plots
    All 2023080806 Maui HRRR-HI Plots
    All 2023080812 Maui HRRR-HI Plots
    All 2023080818 Maui HRRR-HI Plots
  21. Meteograms and Time-heights, WRF 444m Domain for 2023080800 Run
    Meteogram, Time-height, Sounding, and Cross Section Locations
    Loop all
    MeteogramsTime-heightsBoth
    With maxwind250Also with maxwind450LoopRHWind SpeedLoopLoop
    UpstreamUpstreamUpstreamUpstreamUpstreamUpstreamUpstream
    CrestCrestCrestCrestCrestCrestCrest
    DownSlopeDownSlopeDownSlopeDownSlopeDownSlopeDownSlopeDownSlope
    LahainaLahainaLahainaLahainaLahainaLahainaLahaina
    OffshoreOffshoreOffshoreOffshoreOffshoreOffshoreOffshore
    TempestTempestTempestTempestTempestTempestTempest
    MGHMGHMGHMGHMGHMGHMGH
    KahanaKahanaKahanaKahanaKahanaKahanaKahana
    CrossroadCrossroadCrossroadCrossroadCrossroadCrossroadCrossroad
    KMOKMOKMOKMOKMOKMOKMO
    LauniupokuLauniupokuLauniupokuLauniupokuLauniupokuLauniupokuLauniupoku
    HHBBHHBBHHBBHHBBHHBBHHBBHHBB
    FFSFFSFFSFFSFFSFFSFFS
    KahalawaiKahalawaiKahalawaiKahalawaiKahalawaiKahalawaiKahalawai
    Slope2Slope2Slope2Slope2Slope2Slope2Slope2
    WMNAWMNAWMNAWMNAWMNAWMNAWMNA

Table 1. Plots from First 2023080800 12/4/1.33-km Run

DomainProductHourCase

Table 2. Standard Plots for 36/12-km runs
Compare 2023080300 hurrhuge12km and 2023080500 hurrsstupdate12km Runs
Compare More Runs Side by Side

Initialization DomainProductHourCases (control click to select multiple)

Domain Map for the 2023080300, 2023080500, and 2023080700 forecasts fullfcst, hurrhuge12km, and nohurrhuge12km cases

2023080800 WRF Model Configuration

Domain Map and a cropped version NOTE: The terrain shown for each domain is the terrain from that domain.

Standard UW-WRF Physics Options

Phyics and Other Options:
PhysicsComments
WRF Version 4.1.3
Nudging outer 12-km domain T and Q nudging (see namelist.input below for full settings which are identical to what we use in our real-time runs on the outermost domain)
Radiation
RRTMG shortwave and longwave radiation schemes
30-minute update interval.
Thompson MicrophysicsIncludes graupel.
Grell-Freitas ensemble scheme for Cumulus Convection initial run included it on 4/3-km domain by mistake, but for the rerun at 6-minute output intervals, this was turned off for that domain as well as the 444m domain.
YSU PBLYonsei University scheme (new MRF). Non-local-K scheme with explicit entrainment layer and parabolic K profile in unstable mixed layer. NOTE: the module_bl_ysu.F from version 3.0 of the WRF was backported into the version 2.2.1 WRF that was run up to and including the 2009010900 case.
Noah-MP Land Surface Model As noted in the documentaion: Noah-MP contains a separate vegetation canopy defined by a canopy top and bottom with leaf physical and radiometric properties used in a two-stream canopy radiation transfer scheme that includes shading effects. Noah-MP contains a multi-layer snow pack with liquid water storage and melt/refreeze capability and a snow-interception model describing loading/unloading, melt/refreeze, and sublimation of the canopy-intercepted snow. Multiple options are available for surface water infiltration and runoff, and groundwater transfer and storage including water table depth to an unconfined aquifer. Horizontal and vertical vegetation density can be prescribed or predicted using prognostic photosynthesis and dynamic vegetation models that allocate carbon to vegetation (leaf, stem, wood and root) and soil carbon pools (fast and slow).
Surface Layer Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov scheme (Jimenez)
SST Static field from OTIS 1/4-degree resolution from 2023080712
Model Initial and Boundary Conditions GFS 1/4-degree resolution Initial and Forecast Conditions from 2023080800 run
Full 12-,4-,4/3-km run namelist.input file is available here
and the 444m namelist.input is available here.
The terrain used for the 444m run was obtained from USGS National Map Server: https://apps.nationalmap.gov/downloader/
Citations: