MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1997092912 to 1999121212

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.737 -0.699 ******* 0.602 2.184 2.159 ******* 2.576 2.958 2.939 ******* 3.353 2.865 2.855 -9999.00 3.299 53,783. 53,783. 0. 50,370.
3 0.893 1.027 ******* 0.056 1.960 1.920 ******* 2.201 2.730 2.714 ******* 2.815 2.580 2.512 -9999.00 2.814 52,956. 52,956. 0. 45,409.
6 1.360 1.507 ******* 0.342 2.231 2.213 ******* 2.234 3.114 3.120 ******* 2.850 2.801 2.732 -9999.00 2.830 48,946. 48,946. 0. 45,855.
9 1.403 1.610 ******* 0.235 2.356 2.351 ******* 2.316 3.313 3.339 ******* 2.967 3.001 2.925 -9999.00 2.957 47,151. 47,151. 0. 40,594.
12 1.473 1.706 1.703 0.176 2.449 2.457 2.455 2.314 3.460 3.498 3.490 3.016 3.131 3.053 3.046 3.011 46,763. 46,763. 46,763. 43,596.
15 0.820 1.079 1.070 0.053 2.345 2.275 2.268 2.330 3.232 3.178 3.151 3.044 3.127 2.989 2.964 3.043 52,868. 52,868. 52,868. 45,382.
18 -0.605 -0.331 -0.461 0.115 2.392 2.148 2.143 2.419 3.233 2.960 2.947 3.168 3.176 2.941 2.911 3.166 52,710. 52,710. 52,710. 49,386.
21 -1.264 -0.976 -1.136 0.081 2.572 2.318 2.331 2.638 3.431 3.168 3.175 3.402 3.190 3.014 2.965 3.401 52,323. 52,323. 52,323. 44,724.
24 -1.114 -0.849 -1.020 0.106 2.400 2.193 2.229 2.535 3.233 3.026 3.053 3.287 3.035 2.904 2.878 3.286 52,082. 52,082. 52,082. 47,902.
27 0.367 0.464 0.283 0.320 2.106 1.958 1.955 2.355 2.857 2.711 2.689 3.016 2.833 2.671 2.674 2.999 51,437. 51,437. 51,437. 44,203.
30 0.948 1.067 1.032 0.525 2.237 2.169 2.136 2.331 3.060 2.991 2.937 2.977 2.909 2.794 2.750 2.930 47,435. 47,435. 47,435. 44,500.
33 1.043 1.221 1.261 0.345 2.347 2.311 2.287 2.384 3.221 3.186 3.148 3.060 3.048 2.942 2.884 3.040 45,531. 45,531. 45,531. 39,280.
36 1.166 1.362 1.430 0.255 2.435 2.417 2.401 2.395 3.356 3.341 3.315 3.117 3.147 3.051 2.990 3.107 45,664. 45,664. 45,664. 42,564.
39 0.556 0.778 ******* 0.142 2.380 2.306 ******* 2.403 3.230 3.166 ******* 3.141 3.182 3.069 -9999.00 3.138 52,336. 52,336. 0. 45,116.
42 -0.951 -0.697 ******* 0.170 2.569 2.354 ******* 2.560 3.474 3.235 ******* 3.342 3.341 3.159 -9999.00 3.337 51,738. 51,738. 0. 48,505.
45 -1.593 -1.304 ******* 0.034 2.850 2.624 ******* 2.831 3.796 3.570 ******* 3.652 3.445 3.323 -9999.00 3.652 51,026. 51,026. 0. 43,578.
48 -1.466 -1.193 ******* -0.005 2.765 2.558 ******* 2.823 3.694 3.496 ******* 3.631 3.391 3.286 -9999.00 3.631 46,155. 46,155. 0. 42,476.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1997092912 to 1999121212

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 2.262 2.211 ******* -0.063 2.795 2.726 ******* 2.565 4.006 3.892 ******* 3.456 3.307 3.203 -9999.00 3.456 48,846. 48,846. 0. 46,319.
3 1.199 1.231 ******* -0.155 2.288 2.193 ******* 2.264 3.265 3.147 ******* 2.977 3.037 2.896 -9999.00 2.973 55,366. 55,366. 0. 48,536.
6 -0.364 -0.222 ******* -0.061 2.229 2.040 ******* 2.338 3.036 2.821 ******* 3.053 3.014 2.812 -9999.00 3.052 54,894. 54,894. 0. 52,127.
9 -1.101 -0.902 ******* -0.093 2.410 2.220 ******* 2.565 3.230 3.049 ******* 3.310 3.037 2.913 -9999.00 3.309 54,868. 54,868. 0. 47,615.
12 -0.989 -0.769 -0.766 0.011 2.253 2.087 2.093 2.467 3.044 2.883 2.892 3.203 2.879 2.778 2.789 3.203 54,290. 54,290. 54,290. 50,388.
15 0.443 0.483 0.504 0.263 2.012 1.871 1.879 2.307 2.745 2.606 2.617 2.946 2.709 2.561 2.568 2.934 53,230. 53,230. 53,230. 46,176.
18 0.999 1.060 1.307 0.495 2.181 2.097 2.189 2.281 3.009 2.918 3.029 2.906 2.838 2.719 2.733 2.864 49,261. 49,261. 49,261. 46,638.
21 1.080 1.209 1.561 0.328 2.293 2.235 2.386 2.335 3.183 3.119 3.303 2.992 2.994 2.875 2.911 2.974 47,586. 47,586. 47,586. 41,229.
24 1.164 1.327 1.733 0.235 2.385 2.348 2.539 2.337 3.324 3.285 3.513 3.040 3.113 3.005 3.056 3.031 47,826. 47,826. 47,826. 45,058.
27 0.553 0.740 1.120 0.116 2.328 2.238 2.339 2.366 3.187 3.104 3.211 3.082 3.138 3.015 3.010 3.080 53,944. 53,944. 53,944. 46,916.
30 -0.909 -0.692 -0.533 0.159 2.499 2.277 2.252 2.495 3.381 3.137 3.114 3.257 3.257 3.060 3.069 3.253 53,594. 53,594. 53,594. 50,709.
33 -1.525 -1.269 -1.228 0.069 2.747 2.513 2.485 2.744 3.658 3.428 3.400 3.537 3.325 3.185 3.170 3.536 52,893. 52,893. 52,893. 45,745.
36 -1.339 -1.088 -1.076 0.061 2.592 2.386 2.384 2.652 3.473 3.273 3.268 3.424 3.205 3.086 3.086 3.423 52,493. 52,493. 52,493. 48,425.
39 0.146 0.218 ******* 0.253 2.182 2.047 ******* 2.425 2.928 2.800 ******* 3.098 2.925 2.792 -9999.00 3.088 52,538. 52,538. 0. 45,436.
42 0.773 0.859 ******* 0.473 2.240 2.184 ******* 2.370 3.034 2.981 ******* 3.025 2.934 2.854 -9999.00 2.987 48,278. 48,278. 0. 45,565.
45 0.880 1.004 ******* 0.257 2.333 2.291 ******* 2.422 3.170 3.127 ******* 3.113 3.046 2.961 -9999.00 3.103 45,569. 45,569. 0. 39,388.
48 1.008 1.163 ******* 0.133 2.453 2.420 ******* 2.487 3.348 3.316 ******* 3.265 3.192 3.105 -9999.00 3.263 42,739. 42,739. 0. 40,107.