MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1997111500 to 1998022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.030 0.230 ******* -1.047 1.883 1.754 ******* 1.926 2.391 2.262 ******* 2.383 2.391 2.250 -9999.00 2.141 3,504. 3,504. 0. 2,882.
3 0.421 0.590 ******* ******* 2.117 1.844 ******* ******* 2.701 2.435 ******* ******* 2.668 2.363 -9999.00 -9999.00 3,296. 3,296. 0. 0.
6 0.776 0.986 ******* -1.228 2.150 1.980 ******* 2.346 2.803 2.634 ******* 2.868 2.694 2.443 -9999.00 2.593 2,869. 2,869. 0. 2,351.
9 0.831 1.061 ******* ******* 2.179 2.018 ******* ******* 2.847 2.680 ******* ******* 2.723 2.462 -9999.00 -9999.00 2,834. 2,834. 0. 0.
12 0.839 1.087 1.175 -1.200 2.180 2.027 2.010 2.289 2.843 2.683 2.662 2.873 2.717 2.453 2.389 2.610 2,888. 2,888. 2,888. 2,339.
15 0.962 1.190 1.248 ******* 2.276 2.076 2.048 ******* 2.970 2.760 2.718 ******* 2.811 2.491 2.415 -9999.00 3,271. 3,271. 3,271. 0.
18 0.194 0.508 0.522 -0.592 1.871 1.669 1.676 1.951 2.438 2.211 2.221 2.483 2.431 2.152 2.159 2.412 3,369. 3,369. 3,369. 2,720.
21 -0.608 -0.130 -0.081 ******* 1.865 1.618 1.628 ******* 2.423 2.112 2.118 ******* 2.345 2.108 2.117 -9999.00 3,295. 3,295. 3,295. 0.
24 -0.611 -0.294 -0.251 -1.574 2.035 1.710 1.692 2.325 2.617 2.235 2.215 2.939 2.545 2.216 2.201 2.483 3,278. 3,278. 3,278. 2,747.
27 0.351 0.561 0.587 ******* 2.181 1.860 1.808 ******* 2.820 2.473 2.406 ******* 2.798 2.409 2.333 -9999.00 3,100. 3,100. 3,100. 0.
30 0.684 0.869 0.914 -1.212 2.234 2.047 1.961 2.475 2.916 2.695 2.585 3.100 2.835 2.551 2.418 2.854 2,698. 2,698. 2,698. 2,221.
33 0.784 1.000 0.974 ******* 2.319 2.151 2.057 ******* 3.008 2.803 2.691 ******* 2.905 2.619 2.509 -9999.00 2,657. 2,657. 2,657. 0.
36 0.864 1.070 1.075 -1.201 2.316 2.186 2.109 2.461 2.999 2.819 2.712 3.104 2.873 2.609 2.490 2.863 2,643. 2,643. 2,643. 2,108.
39 1.009 1.172 ******* ******* 2.399 2.207 ******* ******* 3.096 2.841 ******* ******* 2.928 2.589 -9999.00 -9999.00 3,077. 3,077. 0. 0.
42 0.141 0.371 ******* -0.681 1.936 1.738 ******* 2.053 2.530 2.264 ******* 2.599 2.526 2.234 -9999.00 2.508 3,228. 3,228. 0. 2,597.
45 -0.700 -0.301 ******* ******* 1.936 1.682 ******* ******* 2.543 2.227 ******* ******* 2.445 2.207 -9999.00 -9999.00 3,193. 3,193. 0. 0.
48 -0.212 -0.072 ******* -1.653 2.085 1.630 ******* 2.580 2.679 2.169 ******* 3.186 2.672 2.170 -9999.00 2.725 794. 794. 0. 664.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1997111500 to 1998022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 1.652 1.929 ******* -0.791 2.333 2.386 ******* 2.179 3.176 3.263 ******* 2.720 2.713 2.633 -9999.00 2.603 2,824. 2,824. 0. 2,340.
3 1.173 1.314 ******* ******* 2.336 2.066 ******* ******* 3.079 2.811 ******* ******* 2.847 2.485 -9999.00 -9999.00 3,293. 3,293. 0. 0.
6 0.373 0.702 ******* -0.725 1.867 1.655 ******* 1.934 2.421 2.217 ******* 2.434 2.393 2.103 -9999.00 2.324 3,409. 3,409. 0. 2,848.
9 -0.404 0.028 ******* ******* 1.750 1.533 ******* ******* 2.260 2.019 ******* ******* 2.224 2.019 -9999.00 -9999.00 3,397. 3,397. 0. 0.
12 -0.554 -0.207 -0.121 -1.554 1.953 1.601 1.598 2.241 2.507 2.119 2.099 2.797 2.445 2.109 2.095 2.326 3,442. 3,442. 3,442. 2,944.
15 0.327 0.544 0.683 ******* 2.079 1.754 1.740 ******* 2.680 2.357 2.332 ******* 2.661 2.293 2.230 -9999.00 3,300. 3,300. 3,300. 0.
18 0.596 0.789 0.955 -1.164 2.129 1.915 1.882 2.348 2.782 2.546 2.513 2.886 2.718 2.421 2.325 2.642 2,873. 2,873. 2,873. 2,446.
21 0.673 0.872 0.989 ******* 2.209 2.002 1.935 ******* 2.884 2.639 2.564 ******* 2.805 2.491 2.366 -9999.00 2,835. 2,835. 2,835. 0.
24 0.766 0.974 1.099 -1.232 2.229 2.072 2.023 2.336 2.914 2.706 2.637 2.909 2.812 2.525 2.398 2.636 2,753. 2,753. 2,753. 2,302.
27 0.946 1.116 1.236 ******* 2.400 2.145 2.139 ******* 3.093 2.794 2.759 ******* 2.945 2.562 2.466 -9999.00 3,102. 3,102. 3,102. 0.
30 0.001 0.261 0.379 -0.636 1.934 1.709 1.711 1.954 2.533 2.261 2.250 2.487 2.533 2.246 2.219 2.405 3,239. 3,239. 3,239. 2,719.
33 -0.735 -0.348 -0.245 ******* 1.918 1.673 1.642 ******* 2.515 2.205 2.160 ******* 2.406 2.178 2.146 -9999.00 3,182. 3,182. 3,182. 0.
36 -0.774 -0.440 -0.360 -1.748 2.125 1.756 1.733 2.430 2.759 2.343 2.298 3.058 2.649 2.302 2.270 2.510 3,155. 3,155. 3,155. 2,628.
39 0.132 0.361 ******* ******* 2.151 1.816 ******* ******* 2.790 2.428 ******* ******* 2.787 2.402 -9999.00 -9999.00 2,912. 2,912. 0. 0.
42 0.466 0.682 ******* -1.295 2.215 2.015 ******* 2.448 2.888 2.653 ******* 3.063 2.851 2.564 -9999.00 2.777 2,555. 2,555. 0. 2,108.
45 0.513 0.720 ******* ******* 2.292 2.090 ******* ******* 2.976 2.727 ******* ******* 2.932 2.631 -9999.00 -9999.00 2,501. 2,501. 0. 0.
48 0.682 0.789 ******* -1.610 2.381 2.083 ******* 2.819 3.033 2.633 ******* 3.513 2.958 2.515 -9999.00 3.126 499. 499. 0. 397.