MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1998030100 to 1998063012

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -1.970 -1.557 ******* 0.939 2.661 2.367 ******* 2.995 3.447 3.148 ******* 3.919 2.829 2.737 -9999.00 3.805 5,534. 5,534. 0. 4,989.
3 -0.515 -0.026 ******* -0.983 2.226 2.013 ******* 2.622 3.091 2.988 ******* 3.302 3.048 2.988 -9999.00 3.153 5,530. 5,530. 0. 4,514.
6 0.050 0.317 ******* -0.741 2.063 1.967 ******* 2.297 2.860 2.810 ******* 2.873 2.859 2.792 -9999.00 2.776 5,068. 5,068. 0. 4,563.
9 0.031 0.296 ******* -0.898 2.075 1.973 ******* 2.259 2.871 2.768 ******* 2.853 2.872 2.752 -9999.00 2.708 4,769. 4,769. 0. 3,856.
12 0.195 0.438 0.464 -0.868 2.060 1.936 1.921 2.173 2.814 2.701 2.700 2.750 2.807 2.666 2.660 2.610 4,710. 4,710. 4,710. 4,213.
15 -0.244 0.217 0.150 0.276 2.192 1.976 1.938 2.032 3.087 2.853 2.798 2.597 3.077 2.845 2.794 2.583 5,554. 5,554. 5,554. 4,636.
18 -0.643 -0.002 -0.168 1.315 2.625 2.344 2.350 2.694 3.619 3.434 3.426 3.545 3.562 3.434 3.422 3.292 5,466. 5,466. 5,466. 5,041.
21 -1.176 -0.438 -0.664 1.640 3.125 2.757 2.769 3.304 4.260 4.109 4.109 4.262 4.095 4.086 4.056 3.935 5,360. 5,360. 5,360. 4,309.
24 -1.660 -0.895 -1.137 0.568 3.191 2.764 2.781 3.013 4.473 4.188 4.181 3.912 4.153 4.091 4.023 3.871 5,073. 5,073. 5,073. 4,679.
27 -1.228 -0.850 -1.062 -0.451 2.706 2.378 2.381 2.645 3.891 3.817 3.816 3.304 3.692 3.721 3.665 3.274 4,980. 4,980. 4,980. 4,105.
30 -0.376 -0.177 -0.264 -0.226 2.361 2.228 2.165 2.245 3.492 3.629 3.561 2.779 3.472 3.625 3.551 2.770 4,587. 4,587. 4,587. 4,196.
33 -0.335 -0.127 -0.116 -0.388 2.374 2.276 2.220 2.135 3.508 3.651 3.582 2.683 3.493 3.649 3.580 2.655 4,432. 4,432. 4,432. 3,638.
36 -0.173 0.005 0.040 -0.458 2.373 2.278 2.220 2.057 3.487 3.603 3.540 2.620 3.483 3.604 3.540 2.580 4,454. 4,454. 4,454. 4,028.
39 -0.636 -0.386 ******* 0.780 2.652 2.461 ******* 2.203 4.017 4.058 ******* 2.819 3.967 4.040 -9999.00 2.710 5,270. 5,270. 0. 4,410.
42 -1.071 -0.545 ******* 1.720 3.257 2.890 ******* 3.093 4.664 4.322 ******* 4.060 4.540 4.288 -9999.00 3.678 5,142. 5,142. 0. 4,774.
45 -1.419 -0.708 ******* 1.985 3.706 3.333 ******* 3.802 5.055 4.822 ******* 4.842 4.853 4.771 -9999.00 4.417 5,086. 5,086. 0. 4,193.
48 -1.820 -0.983 ******* 1.123 3.897 3.468 ******* 3.553 5.305 4.987 ******* 4.483 4.984 4.890 -9999.00 4.340 4,411. 4,411. 0. 4,093.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1998030100 to 1998063012

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 1.729 1.917 ******* -1.322 2.254 2.288 ******* 2.373 3.066 3.106 ******* 3.052 2.533 2.444 -9999.00 2.752 5,519. 5,519. 0. 5,099.
3 0.328 0.593 ******* 0.112 1.949 1.899 ******* 1.998 2.656 2.651 ******* 2.561 2.636 2.584 -9999.00 2.559 6,590. 6,590. 0. 5,647.
6 -0.366 0.229 ******* 1.266 2.544 2.392 ******* 2.622 3.537 3.535 ******* 3.449 3.519 3.528 -9999.00 3.208 6,401. 6,401. 0. 6,018.
9 -1.061 -0.373 ******* 1.593 3.071 2.776 ******* 3.204 4.297 4.241 ******* 4.115 4.164 4.225 -9999.00 3.794 6,306. 6,306. 0. 5,302.
12 -1.553 -0.785 -0.684 0.615 3.138 2.690 2.688 2.890 4.495 4.131 4.162 3.739 4.219 4.057 4.106 3.689 6,176. 6,176. 6,176. 5,708.
15 -1.156 -0.779 -0.598 -0.357 2.687 2.368 2.338 2.569 4.007 3.888 3.873 3.227 3.837 3.809 3.827 3.208 6,137. 6,137. 6,137. 5,141.
18 -0.413 -0.271 0.155 -0.234 2.361 2.230 2.361 2.184 3.628 3.732 3.803 2.713 3.605 3.723 3.800 2.703 5,608. 5,608. 5,608. 5,149.
21 -0.461 -0.295 0.237 -0.434 2.367 2.247 2.440 2.098 3.639 3.730 3.859 2.632 3.610 3.719 3.852 2.596 5,353. 5,353. 5,353. 4,449.
24 -0.355 -0.216 0.375 -0.556 2.360 2.239 2.475 2.012 3.623 3.688 3.848 2.571 3.606 3.682 3.830 2.510 5,375. 5,375. 5,375. 4,928.
27 -0.754 -0.444 0.076 0.699 2.584 2.351 2.533 2.133 4.062 3.967 4.071 2.726 3.992 3.942 4.070 2.636 6,154. 6,154. 6,154. 5,217.
30 -1.085 -0.469 -0.141 1.817 3.155 2.769 2.796 3.067 4.619 4.128 4.201 4.012 4.490 4.102 4.199 3.577 6,126. 6,126. 6,126. 5,698.
33 -1.442 -0.731 -0.506 2.052 3.598 3.162 3.153 3.654 5.019 4.641 4.646 4.689 4.808 4.583 4.618 4.217 5,892. 5,892. 5,892. 4,986.
36 -1.893 -1.078 -0.890 0.942 3.695 3.190 3.161 3.265 5.177 4.674 4.666 4.208 4.819 4.548 4.581 4.102 5,768. 5,768. 5,768. 5,411.
39 -1.650 -1.272 ******* -0.291 3.192 2.899 ******* 2.802 4.700 4.624 ******* 3.494 4.401 4.446 -9999.00 3.482 5,829. 5,829. 0. 4,976.
42 -0.844 -0.744 ******* -0.177 2.713 2.629 ******* 2.306 4.126 4.388 ******* 2.867 4.039 4.325 -9999.00 2.862 5,262. 5,262. 0. 4,913.
45 -0.766 -0.678 ******* -0.357 2.681 2.615 ******* 2.189 4.044 4.333 ******* 2.736 3.971 4.281 -9999.00 2.712 4,948. 4,948. 0. 4,198.
48 -0.600 -0.588 ******* -0.478 2.693 2.649 ******* 2.123 4.064 4.427 ******* 2.684 4.019 4.388 -9999.00 2.641 4,416. 4,416. 0. 4,145.