MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1998091500 to 1998111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -1.066 -0.631 ******* -0.010 2.153 1.888 ******* 2.417 2.845 2.560 ******* 3.112 2.638 2.482 -9999.00 3.112 4,994. 4,994. 0. 4,669.
3 0.543 0.950 ******* -0.976 1.984 1.930 ******* 2.283 2.590 2.568 ******* 2.860 2.533 2.386 -9999.00 2.689 4,848. 4,848. 0. 4,511.
6 0.819 1.231 ******* -0.785 2.251 2.258 ******* 2.380 2.953 3.060 ******* 2.972 2.838 2.802 -9999.00 2.867 4,513. 4,513. 0. 4,168.
9 0.975 1.383 ******* -0.788 2.348 2.400 ******* 2.395 3.091 3.263 ******* 3.012 2.934 2.955 -9999.00 2.908 4,483. 4,483. 0. 4,159.
12 1.106 1.485 1.560 -0.762 2.391 2.469 2.495 2.438 3.191 3.394 3.457 3.081 2.994 3.052 3.086 2.986 4,442. 4,442. 4,442. 4,100.
15 0.923 1.240 1.369 -0.940 2.372 2.401 2.373 2.525 3.132 3.254 3.240 3.262 2.993 3.009 2.936 3.124 4,895. 4,895. 4,895. 4,555.
18 -0.590 0.036 -0.011 0.670 2.340 2.108 2.037 2.399 3.104 2.866 2.775 3.069 3.048 2.866 2.776 2.996 5,049. 5,049. 5,049. 4,689.
21 -1.246 -0.521 -0.609 0.812 2.515 2.108 2.031 2.597 3.284 2.828 2.714 3.371 3.039 2.780 2.645 3.272 4,930. 4,930. 4,930. 4,574.
24 -1.366 -0.801 -0.868 -0.173 2.445 2.064 1.987 2.621 3.197 2.771 2.651 3.347 2.891 2.653 2.505 3.343 4,921. 4,921. 4,921. 3,492.
27 0.144 0.484 0.476 -0.852 2.017 1.869 1.833 2.334 2.643 2.486 2.444 2.926 2.639 2.439 2.398 2.800 4,792. 4,792. 4,792. 4,463.
30 0.489 0.866 0.920 -0.661 2.246 2.190 2.138 2.407 2.926 2.918 2.869 3.010 2.885 2.787 2.718 2.937 4,455. 4,455. 4,455. 4,115.
33 0.626 1.005 1.097 -0.753 2.348 2.329 2.278 2.491 3.047 3.090 3.053 3.135 2.983 2.922 2.850 3.044 4,424. 4,424. 4,424. 4,104.
36 0.706 1.059 1.149 -0.796 2.417 2.420 2.351 2.548 3.170 3.220 3.161 3.248 3.091 3.042 2.945 3.149 4,419. 4,419. 4,419. 4,084.
39 0.547 0.856 ******* -0.964 2.430 2.410 ******* 2.622 3.187 3.188 ******* 3.390 3.140 3.071 -9999.00 3.250 4,936. 4,936. 0. 4,594.
42 -1.048 -0.473 ******* 0.484 2.444 2.177 ******* 2.443 3.241 2.955 ******* 3.141 3.067 2.917 -9999.00 3.104 5,080. 5,080. 0. 4,724.
45 -1.598 -0.874 ******* 0.508 2.726 2.325 ******* 2.721 3.571 3.124 ******* 3.570 3.194 3.000 -9999.00 3.534 4,977. 4,977. 0. 4,623.
48 -1.651 -0.961 ******* -0.470 2.645 2.231 ******* 2.879 3.464 2.996 ******* 3.664 3.046 2.839 -9999.00 3.635 4,960. 4,960. 0. 3,511.


12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1998091500 to 1998111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 2.806 2.953 ******* -1.800 3.176 3.200 ******* 2.876 4.294 4.257 ******* 3.734 3.251 3.067 -9999.00 3.272 4,798. 4,798. 0. 4,428.
3 1.212 1.347 ******* -1.327 2.360 2.268 ******* 2.619 3.232 3.144 ******* 3.364 2.997 2.841 -9999.00 3.091 5,329. 5,329. 0. 4,963.
6 -0.262 0.180 ******* 0.471 2.228 2.023 ******* 2.260 2.959 2.708 ******* 2.895 2.948 2.702 -9999.00 2.857 5,482. 5,482. 0. 5,096.
9 -1.016 -0.484 ******* 0.612 2.351 2.008 ******* 2.412 3.092 2.678 ******* 3.143 2.920 2.635 -9999.00 3.083 5,352. 5,352. 0. 4,972.
12 -1.288 -0.793 -0.726 -0.318 2.311 1.963 1.895 2.461 3.042 2.622 2.538 3.164 2.757 2.499 2.432 3.148 5,273. 5,273. 5,273. 3,823.
15 0.268 0.494 0.720 -0.969 1.986 1.787 1.833 2.318 2.603 2.374 2.445 2.907 2.589 2.322 2.337 2.741 5,111. 5,111. 5,111. 4,759.
18 0.610 0.859 1.177 -0.718 2.194 2.093 2.172 2.401 2.883 2.808 2.945 3.003 2.818 2.673 2.700 2.916 4,751. 4,751. 4,751. 4,383.
21 0.715 0.982 1.331 -0.755 2.283 2.221 2.345 2.449 2.988 2.984 3.162 3.096 2.902 2.818 2.868 3.003 4,721. 4,721. 4,721. 4,373.
24 0.776 1.027 1.399 -0.766 2.324 2.307 2.448 2.509 3.070 3.104 3.303 3.196 2.970 2.930 2.992 3.103 4,724. 4,724. 4,724. 4,361.
27 0.555 0.789 1.163 -0.889 2.304 2.269 2.387 2.566 3.042 3.047 3.189 3.323 2.991 2.943 2.969 3.202 5,259. 5,259. 5,259. 4,891.
30 -1.041 -0.513 -0.236 0.517 2.414 2.168 2.156 2.383 3.214 2.962 2.941 3.061 3.041 2.918 2.932 3.017 5,411. 5,411. 5,411. 5,032.
33 -1.607 -0.918 -0.702 0.606 2.700 2.301 2.226 2.611 3.528 3.095 3.007 3.403 3.142 2.956 2.924 3.349 5,284. 5,284. 5,284. 4,907.
36 -1.707 -1.094 -0.896 -0.377 2.673 2.285 2.171 2.743 3.489 3.066 2.943 3.471 3.043 2.864 2.804 3.451 5,271. 5,271. 5,271. 3,809.
39 -0.132 0.187 ******* -0.948 2.067 1.878 ******* 2.398 2.695 2.473 ******* 3.018 2.692 2.466 -9999.00 2.866 5,155. 5,155. 0. 4,800.
42 0.254 0.588 ******* -0.737 2.260 2.163 ******* 2.451 2.944 2.851 ******* 3.092 2.934 2.790 -9999.00 3.003 4,811. 4,811. 0. 4,435.
45 0.450 0.781 ******* -0.853 2.368 2.315 ******* 2.539 3.059 3.025 ******* 3.216 3.026 2.923 -9999.00 3.101 4,772. 4,772. 0. 4,344.
48 0.539 0.842 ******* -0.928 2.444 2.431 ******* 2.639 3.180 3.180 ******* 3.360 3.134 3.067 -9999.00 3.230 4,779. 4,779. 0. 4,337.