MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1998111500 to 1999022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 0.080 0.321 ******* -0.975 1.753 1.550 ******* 2.746 2.306 2.078 ******* 3.288 2.305 2.053 -9999.00 3.140 8,616. 8,616. 0. 8,137.
3 0.053 0.300 ******* -1.092 1.930 1.676 ******* 2.734 2.551 2.302 ******* 3.302 2.551 2.283 -9999.00 3.117 8,313. 8,313. 0. 7,857.
6 0.175 0.474 ******* -1.005 1.992 1.763 ******* 2.747 2.606 2.383 ******* 3.304 2.600 2.335 -9999.00 3.148 7,829. 7,829. 0. 7,430.
9 0.169 0.464 ******* -0.997 1.971 1.758 ******* 2.656 2.594 2.368 ******* 3.214 2.589 2.322 -9999.00 3.056 7,568. 7,568. 0. 7,158.
12 0.265 0.575 0.625 -0.891 1.982 1.808 1.814 2.630 2.696 2.495 2.519 3.242 2.683 2.428 2.440 3.118 7,370. 7,370. 7,370. 6,961.
15 0.419 0.730 0.839 -0.745 2.059 1.907 1.899 2.628 2.762 2.605 2.602 3.240 2.730 2.500 2.463 3.153 8,185. 8,185. 8,185. 7,779.
18 -0.203 0.188 0.232 -0.552 1.938 1.775 1.731 2.457 2.537 2.362 2.310 2.988 2.529 2.354 2.298 2.937 8,415. 8,415. 8,415. 8,021.
21 -0.831 -0.297 -0.284 -0.665 2.074 1.813 1.792 2.564 2.710 2.449 2.416 3.104 2.579 2.432 2.399 3.033 8,282. 8,282. 8,282. 7,770.
24 -0.658 -0.252 -0.246 -0.870 2.037 1.718 1.712 2.720 2.642 2.302 2.293 3.284 2.559 2.289 2.280 3.167 8,267. 8,267. 8,267. 7,881.
27 -0.002 0.297 0.342 -0.737 2.030 1.815 1.809 2.689 2.658 2.430 2.414 3.271 2.658 2.412 2.390 3.187 8,041. 8,041. 8,041. 7,589.
30 0.130 0.443 0.502 -0.677 2.084 1.905 1.887 2.733 2.718 2.513 2.485 3.310 2.715 2.474 2.434 3.240 7,538. 7,538. 7,538. 7,205.
33 0.186 0.482 0.556 -0.769 2.078 1.924 1.901 2.686 2.718 2.515 2.495 3.268 2.712 2.469 2.433 3.177 7,084. 7,084. 7,084. 6,737.
36 0.350 0.630 0.702 -0.739 2.098 1.970 1.935 2.666 2.795 2.640 2.618 3.306 2.773 2.564 2.522 3.223 7,008. 7,008. 7,008. 6,634.
39 0.485 0.771 ******* -0.706 2.199 2.075 ******* 2.683 2.919 2.785 ******* 3.335 2.878 2.676 -9999.00 3.259 7,976. 7,976. 0. 7,526.
42 -0.157 0.221 ******* -0.488 2.020 1.883 ******* 2.510 2.643 2.478 ******* 3.060 2.639 2.468 -9999.00 3.021 8,080. 8,080. 0. 7,732.
45 -0.759 -0.234 ******* -0.640 2.181 1.978 ******* 2.584 2.863 2.652 ******* 3.152 2.761 2.642 -9999.00 3.087 7,718. 7,718. 0. 7,292.
48 -0.693 -0.294 ******* -0.988 2.164 1.890 ******* 2.783 2.822 2.525 ******* 3.371 2.736 2.508 -9999.00 3.223 7,730. 7,730. 0. 7,396.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1998111500 to 1999022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 1.318 1.492 ******* -1.128 2.088 2.013 ******* 2.705 2.846 2.785 ******* 3.335 2.522 2.352 -9999.00 3.138 7,578. 7,578. 0. 7,169.
3 0.523 0.710 ******* -1.089 1.989 1.804 ******* 2.683 2.677 2.522 ******* 3.306 2.626 2.421 -9999.00 3.121 8,317. 8,317. 0. 7,910.
6 -0.149 0.152 ******* -0.758 1.856 1.680 ******* 2.487 2.442 2.276 ******* 3.015 2.438 2.271 -9999.00 2.918 8,515. 8,515. 0. 8,119.
9 -0.794 -0.371 ******* -0.839 2.050 1.797 ******* 2.601 2.700 2.448 ******* 3.141 2.581 2.419 -9999.00 3.027 8,537. 8,537. 0. 8,028.
12 -0.682 -0.325 -0.300 -1.030 2.017 1.713 1.689 2.766 2.640 2.298 2.275 3.326 2.551 2.275 2.256 3.163 8,519. 8,519. 8,519. 8,041.
15 -0.057 0.215 0.352 -0.853 1.998 1.755 1.736 2.698 2.636 2.378 2.350 3.267 2.635 2.368 2.324 3.154 8,201. 8,201. 8,201. 7,749.
18 0.063 0.359 0.491 -0.752 2.051 1.834 1.801 2.731 2.682 2.450 2.402 3.290 2.681 2.424 2.351 3.203 7,728. 7,728. 7,728. 7,325.
21 0.099 0.375 0.525 -0.792 2.029 1.831 1.816 2.654 2.662 2.426 2.412 3.220 2.660 2.397 2.354 3.121 7,469. 7,469. 7,469. 7,062.
24 0.176 0.458 0.608 -0.797 2.045 1.886 1.878 2.672 2.766 2.562 2.564 3.301 2.761 2.521 2.491 3.203 7,447. 7,447. 7,447. 7,030.
27 0.362 0.656 0.783 -0.723 2.113 1.966 1.955 2.657 2.818 2.664 2.652 3.284 2.795 2.582 2.534 3.203 8,196. 8,196. 8,196. 7,788.
30 -0.256 0.118 0.196 -0.541 1.966 1.804 1.755 2.493 2.583 2.403 2.345 3.030 2.570 2.401 2.337 2.982 8,416. 8,416. 8,416. 8,022.
33 -0.856 -0.348 -0.317 -0.662 2.127 1.885 1.842 2.575 2.793 2.559 2.506 3.131 2.659 2.535 2.486 3.060 8,346. 8,346. 8,346. 7,921.
36 -0.703 -0.317 -0.272 -0.901 2.100 1.817 1.797 2.747 2.730 2.437 2.418 3.318 2.638 2.416 2.403 3.193 8,402. 8,402. 8,402. 7,942.
39 -0.046 0.219 ******* -0.794 2.128 1.934 ******* 2.741 2.781 2.580 ******* 3.345 2.781 2.571 -9999.00 3.249 8,124. 8,124. 0. 7,686.
42 0.156 0.437 ******* -0.723 2.173 2.010 ******* 2.791 2.836 2.661 ******* 3.405 2.832 2.625 -9999.00 3.327 7,641. 7,641. 0. 7,258.
45 0.226 0.471 ******* -0.804 2.166 2.017 ******* 2.749 2.822 2.636 ******* 3.356 2.814 2.594 -9999.00 3.258 7,158. 7,158. 0. 6,785.
48 0.311 0.569 ******* -0.732 2.186 2.065 ******* 2.848 2.901 2.755 ******* 3.733 2.885 2.696 -9999.00 3.660 7,153. 7,153. 0. 6,652.