MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999030100 to 1999063012

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -1.933 -1.679 ******* -0.718 2.681 2.395 ******* 3.082 3.482 3.185 ******* 3.841 2.897 2.707 -9999.00 3.774 9,926. 9,926. 0. 9,884.
3 -0.216 0.069 ******* -1.189 1.916 1.647 ******* 2.988 2.533 2.268 ******* 3.647 2.524 2.267 -9999.00 3.448 9,861. 9,861. 0. 9,822.
6 0.279 0.522 ******* -0.800 1.896 1.712 ******* 2.652 2.438 2.275 ******* 3.231 2.422 2.215 -9999.00 3.130 9,202. 9,202. 0. 9,166.
9 0.349 0.607 ******* -0.781 1.965 1.826 ******* 2.521 2.563 2.457 ******* 3.085 2.540 2.380 -9999.00 2.984 8,844. 8,844. 0. 8,805.
12 0.475 0.716 0.755 -0.776 2.032 1.942 1.955 2.463 2.671 2.630 2.665 3.027 2.628 2.531 2.556 2.925 8,797. 8,797. 8,797. 8,761.
15 -0.093 0.257 0.064 -0.215 1.889 1.763 1.760 2.367 2.486 2.390 2.378 2.955 2.485 2.376 2.378 2.948 9,868. 9,868. 9,868. 9,844.
18 -0.743 -0.186 -0.457 0.197 2.243 2.073 2.045 2.687 2.991 2.822 2.793 3.444 2.897 2.816 2.756 3.439 9,726. 9,726. 9,726. 9,697.
21 -1.254 -0.612 -0.905 -0.009 2.563 2.269 2.290 3.072 3.387 3.085 3.086 3.890 3.146 3.024 2.950 3.891 9,820. 9,820. 9,820. 9,792.
24 -1.636 -1.035 -1.337 -0.670 2.627 2.255 2.318 3.180 3.487 3.096 3.153 3.979 3.080 2.917 2.855 3.923 9,813. 9,813. 9,813. 9,777.
27 -0.884 -0.577 -0.888 -1.085 2.154 1.820 1.871 3.005 2.849 2.501 2.551 3.683 2.708 2.433 2.392 3.519 9,752. 9,752. 9,752. 9,719.
30 -0.258 -0.022 -0.193 -0.705 1.991 1.766 1.738 2.658 2.543 2.306 2.272 3.236 2.530 2.306 2.264 3.158 9,067. 9,067. 9,067. 9,034.
33 -0.155 0.101 0.047 -0.715 2.053 1.869 1.822 2.556 2.641 2.454 2.399 3.129 2.636 2.452 2.399 3.046 8,697. 8,697. 8,697. 8,665.
36 -0.022 0.242 0.221 -0.766 2.113 1.984 1.930 2.519 2.736 2.606 2.554 3.109 2.736 2.595 2.545 3.013 8,767. 8,767. 8,767. 8,734.
39 -0.541 -0.219 ******* -0.172 2.029 1.838 ******* 2.390 2.656 2.464 ******* 2.998 2.601 2.455 -9999.00 2.993 9,935. 9,935. 0. 9,911.
42 -1.174 -0.631 ******* 0.204 2.446 2.206 ******* 2.877 3.245 3.014 ******* 3.669 3.025 2.947 -9999.00 3.664 9,792. 9,792. 0. 9,767.
45 -1.571 -0.865 ******* -0.069 2.826 2.491 ******* 3.313 3.706 3.363 ******* 4.174 3.357 3.250 -9999.00 4.174 9,688. 9,688. 0. 9,670.
48 -1.957 -1.223 ******* -0.897 2.938 2.501 ******* 3.432 3.859 3.396 ******* 4.284 3.326 3.169 -9999.00 4.190 9,122. 9,122. 0. 9,099.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999030100 to 1999063012

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 1.729 1.750 ******* -1.321 2.334 2.245 ******* 2.765 3.175 3.085 ******* 3.436 2.663 2.541 -9999.00 3.173 8,843. 8,843. 0. 8,730.
3 0.305 0.367 ******* -0.691 1.782 1.658 ******* 2.428 2.354 2.241 ******* 2.998 2.334 2.210 -9999.00 2.917 9,911. 9,911. 0. 9,780.
6 -0.516 -0.110 ******* -0.381 2.096 1.939 ******* 2.756 2.787 2.630 ******* 3.458 2.739 2.628 -9999.00 3.437 9,781. 9,781. 0. 9,630.
9 -1.057 -0.567 ******* -0.485 2.428 2.161 ******* 3.100 3.192 2.914 ******* 3.887 3.012 2.858 -9999.00 3.857 9,776. 9,776. 0. 9,610.
12 -1.462 -0.990 -0.950 -0.975 2.464 2.141 2.135 3.229 3.250 2.914 2.916 4.059 2.903 2.740 2.757 3.940 9,604. 9,604. 9,604. 9,487.
15 -0.743 -0.545 -0.405 -1.249 2.055 1.760 1.709 3.041 2.704 2.397 2.346 3.718 2.599 2.335 2.310 3.502 9,543. 9,543. 9,543. 9,426.
18 -0.135 0.001 0.427 -0.845 1.936 1.710 1.792 2.684 2.469 2.230 2.354 3.261 2.466 2.230 2.315 3.150 8,872. 8,872. 8,872. 8,764.
21 -0.043 0.113 0.680 -0.851 1.991 1.800 1.935 2.553 2.562 2.360 2.591 3.128 2.562 2.357 2.500 3.010 8,492. 8,492. 8,492. 8,315.
24 0.040 0.202 0.859 -0.891 2.085 1.908 2.105 2.522 2.699 2.517 2.833 3.107 2.698 2.509 2.700 2.977 8,578. 8,578. 8,578. 8,398.
27 -0.512 -0.250 0.280 -0.301 2.007 1.791 1.877 2.392 2.607 2.388 2.496 2.984 2.556 2.375 2.480 2.969 9,621. 9,621. 9,621. 9,441.
30 -1.039 -0.568 -0.323 0.064 2.355 2.129 2.148 2.746 3.094 2.883 2.898 3.498 2.915 2.826 2.880 3.497 9,500. 9,500. 9,500. 9,312.
33 -1.392 -0.793 -0.700 -0.118 2.679 2.364 2.330 3.170 3.494 3.194 3.142 3.985 3.205 3.095 3.064 3.984 9,322. 9,322. 9,322. 9,140.
36 -1.824 -1.203 -1.136 -0.819 2.783 2.369 2.338 3.303 3.655 3.232 3.179 4.122 3.167 3.000 2.970 4.040 9,300. 9,300. 9,300. 9,121.
39 -1.134 -0.811 ******* -1.246 2.320 1.964 ******* 3.158 3.039 2.662 ******* 3.848 2.820 2.536 -9999.00 3.641 9,482. 9,482. 0. 9,209.
42 -0.418 -0.219 ******* -0.814 2.072 1.839 ******* 2.728 2.676 2.409 ******* 3.324 2.644 2.399 -9999.00 3.223 8,726. 8,726. 0. 8,563.
45 -0.260 -0.087 ******* -0.865 2.123 1.914 ******* 2.631 2.746 2.505 ******* 3.227 2.734 2.504 -9999.00 3.109 8,069. 8,069. 0. 7,896.
48 -0.091 0.104 ******* -0.896 2.175 2.018 ******* 2.601 2.825 2.646 ******* 3.216 2.824 2.644 -9999.00 3.088 8,177. 8,177. 0. 7,996.