MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999091500 to 1999111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.210 -0.249 ******* 1.132 2.364 2.371 ******* 2.469 3.168 3.173 ******* 3.314 3.161 3.164 -9999.00 3.115 5,830. 5,830. 0. 5,467.
3 2.310 2.297 ******* -0.073 2.885 2.844 ******* 2.241 3.886 3.880 ******* 2.923 3.125 3.127 -9999.00 2.922 5,819. 5,819. 0. 5,433.
6 2.707 2.729 ******* 0.061 3.341 3.279 ******* 2.565 4.480 4.446 ******* 3.276 3.570 3.510 -9999.00 3.276 5,177. 5,177. 0. 4,863.
9 2.800 2.810 ******* -0.211 3.498 3.397 ******* 2.716 4.701 4.620 ******* 3.477 3.777 3.667 -9999.00 3.471 4,975. 4,975. 0. 4,681.
12 2.764 2.756 2.739 -0.541 3.510 3.385 3.374 2.843 4.755 4.627 4.611 3.651 3.869 3.717 3.709 3.612 4,962. 4,962. 4,962. 4,612.
15 2.394 2.411 2.409 -0.829 3.354 3.209 3.127 2.791 4.540 4.379 4.267 3.679 3.858 3.656 3.522 3.585 5,873. 5,873. 5,873. 5,474.
18 -0.010 -0.035 -0.306 -0.594 2.670 2.366 2.331 2.728 3.583 3.221 3.178 3.656 3.583 3.221 3.163 3.608 5,580. 5,580. 5,580. 5,191.
21 -0.523 -0.592 -0.835 0.434 2.745 2.433 2.432 2.595 3.632 3.324 3.325 3.430 3.594 3.271 3.219 3.403 5,590. 5,590. 5,590. 5,197.
24 -0.132 -0.268 -0.575 0.564 2.390 2.156 2.173 2.415 3.177 2.947 2.965 3.159 3.174 2.935 2.909 3.109 5,642. 5,642. 5,642. 5,261.
27 2.143 1.908 1.649 0.536 2.900 2.643 2.474 2.336 3.858 3.556 3.375 2.990 3.209 3.001 2.945 2.941 5,723. 5,723. 5,723. 5,332.
30 2.526 2.399 2.338 0.508 3.305 3.116 2.997 2.606 4.372 4.143 3.996 3.330 3.568 3.378 3.241 3.291 5,039. 5,039. 5,039. 4,724.
33 2.567 2.492 2.507 0.080 3.430 3.258 3.156 2.688 4.538 4.327 4.204 3.490 3.743 3.537 3.374 3.490 4,878. 4,878. 4,878. 4,501.
36 2.545 2.478 2.552 -0.205 3.454 3.279 3.234 2.815 4.596 4.381 4.308 3.674 3.828 3.614 3.471 3.669 4,992. 4,992. 4,992. 4,552.
39 2.269 2.252 ******* -0.586 3.313 3.164 ******* 2.828 4.387 4.209 ******* 3.748 3.755 3.556 -9999.00 3.702 5,677. 5,677. 0. 5,172.
42 -0.313 -0.326 ******* -0.520 2.691 2.457 ******* 2.798 3.595 3.325 ******* 3.734 3.582 3.310 -9999.00 3.698 5,340. 5,340. 0. 4,837.
45 -0.955 -0.911 ******* 0.123 2.875 2.632 ******* 2.700 3.772 3.551 ******* 3.529 3.649 3.432 -9999.00 3.527 5,369. 5,369. 0. 4,891.
48 -0.560 -0.599 ******* 0.218 2.559 2.360 ******* 2.521 3.355 3.186 ******* 3.267 3.309 3.130 -9999.00 3.260 5,420. 5,420. 0. 4,947.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999091500 to 1999111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 3.663 3.620 ******* 2.831 4.094 4.081 ******* 4.037 5.550 5.513 ******* 5.189 4.170 4.158 -9999.00 4.349 5,198. 5,198. 0. 5,198.
3 2.880 2.840 ******* 0.482 3.535 3.479 ******* 2.711 4.839 4.759 ******* 3.592 3.888 3.819 -9999.00 3.560 5,998. 5,998. 0. 5,893.
6 0.247 0.220 ******* 0.378 2.574 2.385 ******* 2.500 3.450 3.225 ******* 3.319 3.441 3.218 -9999.00 3.298 5,636. 5,636. 0. 5,530.
9 -0.429 -0.491 ******* 0.904 2.588 2.383 ******* 2.606 3.449 3.220 ******* 3.451 3.422 3.182 -9999.00 3.331 5,770. 5,770. 0. 5,663.
12 -0.084 -0.217 -0.220 0.931 2.243 2.087 2.100 2.401 3.013 2.847 2.860 3.140 3.012 2.839 2.851 2.999 5,727. 5,727. 5,727. 5,629.
15 2.184 1.900 1.895 0.885 2.798 2.538 2.530 2.363 3.727 3.430 3.415 3.008 3.021 2.856 2.842 2.875 5,647. 5,647. 5,647. 5,546.
18 2.553 2.376 2.603 0.858 3.232 3.006 3.100 2.622 4.328 4.046 4.137 3.339 3.496 3.276 3.216 3.228 5,091. 5,091. 5,091. 5,019.
21 2.602 2.470 2.773 0.418 3.402 3.173 3.296 2.732 4.543 4.272 4.395 3.475 3.725 3.485 3.411 3.450 4,892. 4,892. 4,892. 4,651.
24 2.497 2.444 2.810 0.076 3.354 3.173 3.343 2.713 4.519 4.297 4.478 3.490 3.767 3.535 3.487 3.490 5,134. 5,134. 5,134. 4,954.
27 2.280 2.278 2.669 -0.361 3.316 3.149 3.301 2.763 4.452 4.256 4.403 3.609 3.825 3.595 3.502 3.591 5,904. 5,904. 5,904. 5,492.
30 -0.304 -0.318 -0.159 -0.306 2.680 2.378 2.331 2.630 3.591 3.258 3.212 3.516 3.578 3.242 3.208 3.503 5,569. 5,569. 5,569. 5,364.
33 -0.864 -0.864 -0.847 0.384 2.812 2.527 2.498 2.665 3.699 3.440 3.418 3.503 3.597 3.330 3.311 3.482 5,580. 5,580. 5,580. 5,197.
36 -0.451 -0.523 -0.587 0.380 2.489 2.247 2.245 2.441 3.276 3.056 3.066 3.179 3.245 3.011 3.010 3.156 5,605. 5,605. 5,605. 5,313.
39 1.895 1.665 ******* 0.426 2.806 2.562 ******* 2.387 3.734 3.425 ******* 3.055 3.217 2.993 -9999.00 3.025 5,667. 5,667. 0. 5,158.
42 2.326 2.209 ******* 0.364 3.221 3.049 ******* 2.584 4.250 4.017 ******* 3.328 3.558 3.356 -9999.00 3.308 5,011. 5,011. 0. 4,774.
45 2.367 2.258 ******* -0.164 3.342 3.141 ******* 2.745 4.405 4.146 ******* 3.573 3.716 3.477 -9999.00 3.570 4,634. 4,634. 0. 4,198.
48 2.405 2.341 ******* -0.418 3.377 3.201 ******* 2.824 4.478 4.237 ******* 3.714 3.778 3.531 -9999.00 3.691 4,896. 4,896. 0. 4,538.