MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999091500 to 1999111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.729 -0.456 ******* 0.458 2.324 2.260 ******* 2.444 3.048 2.983 ******* 3.171 2.960 2.948 -9999.00 3.138 5,830. 5,830. 0. 5,467.
3 1.244 1.500 ******* -1.951 2.324 2.368 ******* 2.938 3.049 3.195 ******* 3.649 2.783 2.822 -9999.00 3.084 5,819. 5,819. 0. 5,433.
6 1.594 1.864 ******* -1.779 2.672 2.722 ******* 2.975 3.491 3.647 ******* 3.716 3.106 3.135 -9999.00 3.263 5,177. 5,177. 0. 4,863.
9 1.719 1.975 ******* -1.931 2.774 2.812 ******* 3.081 3.655 3.785 ******* 3.837 3.225 3.229 -9999.00 3.315 4,975. 4,975. 0. 4,681.
12 1.745 1.960 2.017 -2.122 2.807 2.806 2.859 3.216 3.716 3.791 3.867 4.035 3.281 3.245 3.300 3.432 4,962. 4,962. 4,962. 4,612.
15 1.563 1.762 1.587 -2.286 2.808 2.767 2.659 3.324 3.718 3.717 3.560 4.213 3.374 3.273 3.187 3.539 5,873. 5,873. 5,873. 5,474.
18 0.221 0.468 0.067 -0.110 2.385 2.183 2.096 2.709 3.175 2.938 2.820 3.444 3.168 2.900 2.819 3.443 5,580. 5,580. 5,580. 5,191.
21 -0.285 -0.043 -0.329 1.035 2.456 2.167 2.111 2.736 3.242 2.954 2.880 3.540 3.230 2.954 2.861 3.385 5,590. 5,590. 5,590. 5,197.
24 -0.489 -0.212 -0.571 -0.063 2.255 2.005 2.006 2.502 2.957 2.693 2.693 3.161 2.917 2.684 2.632 3.161 5,642. 5,642. 5,642. 5,261.
27 1.124 1.187 0.926 -1.130 2.305 2.183 2.069 2.618 2.980 2.881 2.747 3.305 2.760 2.626 2.587 3.106 5,723. 5,723. 5,723. 5,332.
30 1.414 1.538 1.443 -1.173 2.613 2.551 2.435 2.754 3.354 3.324 3.189 3.483 3.042 2.947 2.844 3.280 5,039. 5,039. 5,039. 4,724.
33 1.486 1.632 1.619 -1.543 2.724 2.685 2.574 2.908 3.504 3.486 3.364 3.702 3.173 3.080 2.949 3.366 4,878. 4,878. 4,878. 4,501.
36 1.502 1.627 1.677 -1.757 2.777 2.721 2.634 3.117 3.597 3.549 3.464 3.974 3.269 3.155 3.031 3.565 4,992. 4,992. 4,992. 4,552.
39 1.354 1.476 ******* -2.036 2.773 2.705 ******* 3.300 3.587 3.521 ******* 4.236 3.322 3.197 -9999.00 3.715 5,677. 5,677. 0. 5,172.
42 -0.166 0.034 ******* -0.184 2.422 2.242 ******* 2.743 3.163 2.964 ******* 3.468 3.159 2.964 -9999.00 3.464 5,340. 5,340. 0. 4,837.
45 -0.732 -0.377 ******* 0.600 2.602 2.360 ******* 2.724 3.377 3.125 ******* 3.488 3.297 3.103 -9999.00 3.436 5,369. 5,369. 0. 4,891.
48 -0.920 -0.575 ******* -0.488 2.480 2.228 ******* 2.648 3.214 2.943 ******* 3.326 3.080 2.887 -9999.00 3.290 5,420. 5,420. 0. 4,947.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999091500 to 1999111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 3.354 3.591 ******* 1.762 3.766 3.948 ******* 3.676 5.024 5.255 ******* 4.703 3.740 3.837 -9999.00 4.360 5,198. 5,198. 0. 5,198.
3 2.013 2.215 ******* -1.038 2.927 3.020 ******* 2.734 3.946 4.090 ******* 3.516 3.394 3.439 -9999.00 3.360 5,998. 5,998. 0. 5,893.
6 0.480 0.743 ******* 0.882 2.314 2.217 ******* 2.555 3.086 2.993 ******* 3.249 3.048 2.899 -9999.00 3.127 5,636. 5,636. 0. 5,530.
9 -0.166 0.051 ******* 1.583 2.333 2.138 ******* 2.807 3.086 2.862 ******* 3.628 3.082 2.862 -9999.00 3.264 5,770. 5,770. 0. 5,663.
12 -0.364 -0.209 -0.139 0.388 2.125 1.965 1.960 2.385 2.810 2.621 2.621 3.008 2.786 2.612 2.618 2.983 5,727. 5,727. 5,727. 5,629.
15 1.192 1.226 1.411 -0.781 2.218 2.103 2.190 2.469 2.879 2.794 2.897 3.113 2.621 2.510 2.530 3.014 5,647. 5,647. 5,647. 5,546.
18 1.443 1.550 1.959 -0.824 2.545 2.448 2.620 2.626 3.308 3.245 3.468 3.296 2.977 2.852 2.863 3.191 5,091. 5,091. 5,091. 5,019.
21 1.496 1.617 2.093 -1.211 2.663 2.592 2.767 2.794 3.473 3.424 3.670 3.515 3.135 3.018 3.014 3.301 4,892. 4,892. 4,892. 4,651.
24 1.439 1.597 2.143 -1.452 2.669 2.593 2.813 2.908 3.499 3.444 3.746 3.657 3.189 3.052 3.072 3.357 5,134. 5,134. 5,134. 4,954.
27 1.334 1.506 2.060 -1.818 2.747 2.659 2.860 3.152 3.602 3.531 3.789 3.993 3.346 3.194 3.180 3.555 5,904. 5,904. 5,904. 5,492.
30 -0.133 0.097 0.317 0.137 2.374 2.155 2.154 2.593 3.132 2.888 2.902 3.298 3.130 2.887 2.885 3.295 5,569. 5,569. 5,569. 5,364.
33 -0.580 -0.284 -0.225 0.972 2.500 2.233 2.205 2.725 3.270 3.004 2.974 3.528 3.219 2.991 2.966 3.392 5,580. 5,580. 5,580. 5,197.
36 -0.736 -0.454 -0.480 -0.273 2.375 2.109 2.092 2.521 3.074 2.799 2.798 3.168 2.985 2.762 2.756 3.156 5,605. 5,605. 5,605. 5,313.
39 0.840 0.910 ******* -1.227 2.259 2.130 ******* 2.687 2.926 2.795 ******* 3.396 2.803 2.643 -9999.00 3.167 5,667. 5,667. 0. 5,158.
42 1.174 1.316 ******* -1.291 2.560 2.507 ******* 2.791 3.287 3.238 ******* 3.534 3.070 2.958 -9999.00 3.290 5,011. 5,011. 0. 4,774.
45 1.268 1.400 ******* -1.762 2.655 2.605 ******* 3.047 3.429 3.379 ******* 3.868 3.187 3.075 -9999.00 3.443 4,634. 4,634. 0. 4,198.
48 1.365 1.506 ******* -1.914 2.746 2.669 ******* 3.197 3.542 3.463 ******* 4.084 3.269 3.119 -9999.00 3.609 4,896. 4,896. 0. 4,538.