MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999111500 to 2000022912

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 0.189 0.056 ******* -0.251 1.708 1.717 ******* 1.875 2.449 2.456 ******* 2.553 2.442 2.456 -9999.00 2.541 18,724. 18,724. 0. 18,311.
3 1.108 0.964 ******* -0.236 1.917 1.761 ******* 1.786 2.717 2.505 ******* 2.465 2.481 2.312 -9999.00 2.454 18,228. 18,228. 0. 17,825.
6 1.116 1.076 1.048 -0.238 2.072 1.944 1.959 1.970 2.892 2.733 2.749 2.708 2.668 2.512 2.541 2.697 18,255. 18,255. 15,975. 17,841.
9 1.178 1.155 1.126 -0.287 2.192 2.063 2.043 2.069 3.038 2.884 2.860 2.850 2.801 2.643 2.629 2.835 17,355. 17,355. 15,135. 16,944.
12 1.231 1.253 1.230 -0.300 2.280 2.167 2.106 2.141 3.142 3.015 2.952 2.973 2.891 2.743 2.684 2.957 17,682. 17,682. 17,682. 17,293.
15 1.353 1.364 1.338 -0.222 2.393 2.273 2.224 2.214 3.279 3.159 3.105 3.031 2.987 2.849 2.802 3.023 17,974. 17,974. 17,974. 17,490.
18 0.342 0.310 0.173 -0.437 2.080 1.957 1.936 2.021 2.916 2.734 2.685 2.850 2.896 2.717 2.679 2.817 18,538. 18,538. 18,538. 18,131.
21 0.038 -0.042 -0.231 -0.432 2.313 2.174 2.129 2.027 3.169 2.987 2.907 2.815 3.169 2.987 2.898 2.781 18,106. 18,106. 18,106. 17,740.
24 0.237 0.101 -0.065 -0.524 2.170 2.052 1.990 1.948 2.982 2.826 2.739 2.660 2.973 2.824 2.738 2.608 18,372. 18,372. 18,372. 18,218.
27 1.133 0.981 0.921 -0.169 2.134 1.975 1.915 1.867 2.954 2.757 2.676 2.588 2.728 2.577 2.513 2.582 18,040. 18,040. 18,040. 17,888.
30 1.267 1.168 1.192 -0.077 2.237 2.091 2.072 2.044 3.078 2.925 2.905 2.818 2.805 2.682 2.649 2.817 18,073. 18,073. 18,073. 17,921.
33 1.356 1.257 1.293 0.004 2.344 2.193 2.180 2.163 3.224 3.060 3.051 2.975 2.925 2.790 2.763 2.975 17,203. 17,203. 17,203. 17,055.
36 1.424 1.363 1.428 0.029 2.422 2.278 2.283 2.246 3.329 3.173 3.186 3.114 3.009 2.866 2.848 3.114 17,662. 17,662. 17,662. 17,518.
39 1.590 1.543 ******* 0.079 2.552 2.424 ******* 2.352 3.486 3.356 ******* 3.224 3.103 2.981 -9999.00 3.223 18,367. 18,367. 0. 18,198.
42 0.417 0.351 ******* -0.216 2.183 2.060 ******* 2.100 3.018 2.851 ******* 2.935 2.989 2.829 -9999.00 2.927 18,800. 18,800. 0. 18,636.
45 0.026 -0.014 ******* -0.393 2.423 2.311 ******* 2.118 3.273 3.139 ******* 2.884 3.273 3.139 -9999.00 2.857 18,364. 18,364. 0. 18,180.
48 0.228 0.169 ******* -0.502 2.342 2.265 ******* 2.012 3.136 3.045 ******* 2.711 3.128 3.040 -9999.00 2.664 18,498. 18,498. 0. 18,331.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999111500 to 2000022912

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 1.790 1.538 ******* -0.500 2.452 2.374 ******* 2.191 3.383 3.280 ******* 3.033 2.870 2.897 -9999.00 2.992 17,936. 17,936. 0. 17,281.
3 1.797 1.507 ******* -0.370 2.505 2.247 ******* 2.140 3.437 3.119 ******* 2.931 2.929 2.731 -9999.00 2.908 18,376. 18,376. 0. 17,496.
6 0.589 0.413 0.359 -0.580 2.038 1.865 1.880 2.017 2.877 2.615 2.629 2.838 2.816 2.583 2.604 2.778 18,970. 18,970. 16,191. 18,305.
9 0.165 0.004 -0.032 -0.619 2.247 2.092 2.123 2.089 3.086 2.870 2.895 2.860 3.081 2.870 2.894 2.793 18,512. 18,512. 15,983. 17,870.
12 0.269 0.091 0.117 -0.657 2.090 1.966 1.933 2.024 2.875 2.699 2.650 2.729 2.863 2.698 2.647 2.648 18,163. 18,163. 18,163. 17,763.
15 1.051 0.883 1.023 -0.326 2.033 1.872 1.886 1.909 2.820 2.602 2.592 2.656 2.617 2.448 2.382 2.636 17,832. 17,832. 17,832. 17,210.
18 1.167 1.068 1.286 -0.249 2.123 1.996 2.041 2.022 2.936 2.777 2.829 2.790 2.695 2.563 2.520 2.779 18,023. 18,023. 18,023. 17,618.
21 1.253 1.161 1.415 -0.201 2.224 2.099 2.157 2.140 3.062 2.901 2.982 2.931 2.794 2.659 2.625 2.924 17,182. 17,182. 17,182. 16,787.
24 1.278 1.223 1.508 -0.237 2.312 2.194 2.263 2.245 3.170 3.029 3.128 3.092 2.901 2.771 2.741 3.083 17,515. 17,515. 17,515. 17,098.
27 1.405 1.352 1.640 -0.158 2.431 2.313 2.394 2.307 3.318 3.183 3.294 3.151 3.006 2.882 2.857 3.147 18,218. 18,218. 18,218. 17,790.
30 0.338 0.248 0.439 -0.356 2.090 1.975 1.945 2.096 2.916 2.738 2.709 2.913 2.897 2.726 2.673 2.891 18,642. 18,642. 18,642. 18,204.
33 0.029 -0.069 -0.045 -0.453 2.308 2.197 2.163 2.116 3.150 3.009 2.970 2.883 3.150 3.008 2.970 2.847 18,228. 18,228. 18,228. 17,787.
36 0.214 0.088 0.110 -0.552 2.203 2.091 2.062 2.028 2.977 2.843 2.818 2.724 2.970 2.841 2.816 2.668 18,255. 18,255. 18,255. 17,801.
39 1.066 0.956 ******* -0.132 2.130 2.005 ******* 1.964 2.913 2.753 ******* 2.673 2.710 2.582 -9999.00 2.670 18,440. 18,440. 0. 17,944.
42 1.179 1.130 ******* -0.008 2.278 2.179 ******* 2.151 3.102 2.990 ******* 2.945 2.869 2.768 -9999.00 2.945 18,406. 18,406. 0. 17,910.
45 1.216 1.183 ******* 0.082 2.393 2.288 ******* 2.252 3.261 3.141 ******* 3.104 3.026 2.910 -9999.00 3.103 16,221. 16,221. 0. 15,585.
48 1.251 1.238 ******* 0.136 2.467 2.378 ******* 2.341 3.367 3.257 ******* 3.243 3.126 3.012 -9999.00 3.240 16,865. 16,865. 0. 16,381.