MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999121300 to 2000073100

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.994 -1.083 ******* -0.300 1.979 2.040 ******* 1.975 2.626 2.700 ******* 2.609 2.431 2.473 -9999.00 2.592 56,947. 56,947. 0. 56,426.
3 0.522 0.523 ******* -0.418 1.700 1.596 ******* 1.916 2.347 2.206 ******* 2.516 2.289 2.143 -9999.00 2.481 54,856. 54,856. 0. 54,337.
6 1.194 1.189 1.187 0.063 2.121 2.033 2.032 1.976 2.926 2.832 2.829 2.601 2.672 2.570 2.568 2.601 54,842. 54,842. 54,533. 54,312.
9 1.351 1.428 1.297 0.116 2.312 2.249 2.169 2.079 3.187 3.130 3.034 2.752 2.887 2.785 2.743 2.749 53,076. 53,076. 52,761. 52,566.
12 1.535 1.674 1.549 0.158 2.490 2.463 2.349 2.163 3.406 3.402 3.274 2.882 3.041 2.961 2.885 2.878 53,520. 53,520. 53,520. 53,031.
15 0.224 0.397 0.199 -0.025 2.136 1.949 1.916 1.972 2.855 2.658 2.607 2.649 2.846 2.629 2.600 2.649 55,487. 55,487. 55,487. 54,952.
18 -0.947 -0.799 -1.057 -0.222 2.388 2.114 2.177 2.018 3.099 2.759 2.810 2.740 2.951 2.640 2.604 2.731 56,151. 56,151. 56,151. 55,629.
21 -1.332 -1.226 -1.416 -0.409 2.653 2.406 2.449 2.176 3.362 3.068 3.101 2.898 3.087 2.813 2.758 2.869 55,629. 55,629. 55,629. 55,108.
24 -1.206 -1.116 -1.298 -0.545 2.537 2.338 2.380 2.237 3.241 3.007 3.040 2.902 3.008 2.793 2.749 2.851 56,116. 56,116. 56,116. 55,837.
27 0.255 0.212 -0.048 -0.334 1.924 1.783 1.748 2.054 2.593 2.419 2.365 2.693 2.581 2.410 2.365 2.672 54,336. 54,336. 54,336. 54,062.
30 1.054 1.007 0.939 0.210 2.143 2.050 1.983 2.026 2.874 2.772 2.700 2.670 2.674 2.583 2.532 2.662 54,550. 54,550. 54,550. 54,278.
33 1.259 1.305 1.351 0.351 2.346 2.275 2.249 2.158 3.158 3.087 3.070 2.852 2.896 2.797 2.757 2.830 52,847. 52,847. 52,847. 52,580.
36 1.461 1.564 1.666 0.390 2.511 2.474 2.480 2.258 3.375 3.349 3.375 3.005 3.042 2.962 2.935 2.980 53,538. 53,538. 53,538. 53,264.
39 0.125 0.286 ******* 0.206 2.228 2.034 ******* 2.063 2.985 2.777 ******* 2.787 2.982 2.762 -9999.00 2.779 55,935. 55,935. 0. 55,664.
42 -1.200 -1.026 ******* -0.043 2.581 2.303 ******* 2.115 3.338 3.001 ******* 2.858 3.114 2.820 -9999.00 2.857 56,470. 56,470. 0. 56,207.
45 -1.555 -1.417 ******* -0.316 2.901 2.673 ******* 2.336 3.653 3.390 ******* 3.069 3.306 3.079 -9999.00 3.053 55,936. 55,936. 0. 55,640.
48 -1.393 -1.253 ******* -0.510 2.791 2.597 ******* 2.383 3.525 3.316 ******* 3.085 3.238 3.070 -9999.00 3.043 56,565. 56,565. 0. 56,279.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999121300 to 2000073100

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 2.040 1.880 ******* -0.630 2.589 2.521 ******* 2.141 3.534 3.455 ******* 2.853 2.886 2.898 -9999.00 2.783 53,591. 53,591. 0. 52,677.
3 0.708 0.533 ******* -0.592 2.003 1.834 ******* 1.972 2.772 2.561 ******* 2.642 2.680 2.505 -9999.00 2.575 55,677. 55,677. 0. 54,517.
6 -0.658 -0.718 -0.752 -0.612 2.186 2.010 2.007 1.997 2.871 2.642 2.631 2.693 2.794 2.542 2.521 2.622 56,542. 56,542. 55,459. 55,645.
9 -1.150 -1.173 -1.078 -0.685 2.471 2.314 2.232 2.171 3.177 2.975 2.878 2.865 2.961 2.734 2.669 2.782 55,931. 55,931. 55,250. 55,062.
12 -1.079 -1.075 -0.978 -0.738 2.359 2.213 2.134 2.231 3.045 2.869 2.783 2.869 2.847 2.660 2.606 2.773 55,908. 55,908. 55,908. 55,296.
15 0.305 0.190 0.276 -0.519 1.843 1.720 1.708 2.051 2.483 2.322 2.296 2.680 2.464 2.314 2.279 2.629 54,325. 54,325. 54,325. 53,490.
18 1.053 0.952 1.289 0.019 2.104 2.000 2.093 2.010 2.827 2.700 2.836 2.642 2.624 2.527 2.526 2.642 54,329. 54,329. 54,329. 53,706.
21 1.227 1.228 1.690 0.180 2.283 2.199 2.371 2.134 3.087 2.988 3.231 2.814 2.833 2.724 2.754 2.808 52,583. 52,583. 52,583. 51,975.
24 1.371 1.441 1.970 0.194 2.419 2.360 2.600 2.231 3.276 3.219 3.537 2.960 2.975 2.878 2.937 2.953 52,842. 52,842. 52,842. 52,210.
27 0.006 0.146 0.619 0.001 2.188 1.984 1.984 2.021 2.930 2.696 2.726 2.722 2.930 2.692 2.654 2.722 55,252. 55,252. 55,252. 54,594.
30 -1.251 -1.127 -0.896 -0.252 2.573 2.305 2.178 2.081 3.332 2.989 2.858 2.806 3.088 2.768 2.714 2.794 55,436. 55,436. 55,436. 54,769.
33 -1.593 -1.485 -1.377 -0.492 2.856 2.635 2.546 2.304 3.608 3.338 3.243 3.041 3.237 2.990 2.936 3.001 55,362. 55,362. 55,362. 54,692.
36 -1.461 -1.336 -1.284 -0.622 2.724 2.520 2.467 2.371 3.450 3.215 3.157 3.057 3.126 2.924 2.884 2.993 55,434. 55,434. 55,434. 54,778.
39 0.049 0.053 ******* -0.346 1.981 1.869 ******* 2.121 2.641 2.501 ******* 2.772 2.640 2.500 -9999.00 2.750 54,715. 54,715. 0. 54,002.
42 0.877 0.864 ******* 0.248 2.126 2.067 ******* 2.071 2.834 2.766 ******* 2.729 2.695 2.627 -9999.00 2.718 54,127. 54,127. 0. 53,413.
45 1.062 1.125 ******* 0.395 2.319 2.269 ******* 2.203 3.100 3.055 ******* 2.912 2.913 2.840 -9999.00 2.885 50,991. 50,991. 0. 50,144.
48 1.239 1.349 ******* 0.429 2.462 2.438 ******* 2.305 3.300 3.287 ******* 3.069 3.059 2.997 -9999.00 3.039 50,992. 50,992. 0. 50,294.