MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999121300 to 2000073100

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -1.394 -1.299 ******* -0.228 2.284 2.180 ******* 2.340 2.948 2.847 ******* 3.092 2.598 2.533 -9999.00 3.084 56,947. 56,947. 0. 56,426.
3 -0.378 -0.201 ******* -1.726 1.815 1.601 ******* 2.691 2.391 2.133 ******* 3.408 2.360 2.124 -9999.00 2.938 54,856. 54,856. 0. 54,337.
6 0.159 0.283 0.396 -1.412 1.895 1.771 1.748 2.479 2.503 2.375 2.361 3.166 2.498 2.358 2.328 2.834 54,842. 54,842. 54,533. 54,312.
9 0.372 0.552 0.248 -1.331 2.001 1.922 1.841 2.408 2.660 2.594 2.470 3.099 2.633 2.534 2.457 2.798 53,076. 53,076. 52,761. 52,566.
12 0.595 0.792 0.511 -1.251 2.121 2.087 1.963 2.392 2.825 2.817 2.655 3.112 2.762 2.703 2.605 2.849 53,520. 53,520. 53,520. 53,031.
15 -0.027 0.280 -0.052 -0.410 1.939 1.793 1.724 2.073 2.548 2.385 2.299 2.794 2.548 2.369 2.299 2.764 55,487. 55,487. 55,487. 54,952.
18 -0.192 0.192 -0.103 0.770 2.045 1.855 1.785 2.504 2.694 2.485 2.378 3.296 2.687 2.477 2.376 3.205 56,151. 56,151. 56,151. 55,629.
21 -0.526 -0.105 -0.227 0.793 2.297 2.073 2.022 2.641 3.023 2.801 2.711 3.487 2.976 2.799 2.702 3.396 55,629. 55,629. 55,629. 55,108.
24 -1.219 -0.767 -0.899 -0.347 2.510 2.167 2.139 2.523 3.195 2.839 2.791 3.310 2.953 2.733 2.643 3.292 56,116. 56,116. 56,116. 55,837.
27 -0.597 -0.454 -0.660 -1.533 2.055 1.821 1.804 2.699 2.676 2.394 2.354 3.446 2.608 2.351 2.259 3.087 54,336. 54,336. 54,336. 54,062.
30 0.063 0.153 0.109 -1.165 1.933 1.816 1.751 2.431 2.531 2.386 2.303 3.138 2.530 2.382 2.301 2.913 54,550. 54,550. 54,550. 54,278.
33 0.305 0.452 0.501 -1.011 2.046 1.965 1.908 2.369 2.682 2.591 2.535 3.078 2.665 2.551 2.486 2.908 52,847. 52,847. 52,847. 52,580.
36 0.537 0.691 0.787 -0.942 2.148 2.103 2.071 2.386 2.825 2.787 2.771 3.129 2.773 2.701 2.657 2.984 53,538. 53,538. 53,538. 53,264.
39 -0.151 0.054 ******* -0.114 2.003 1.836 ******* 2.108 2.637 2.447 ******* 2.864 2.632 2.447 -9999.00 2.862 55,935. 55,935. 0. 55,664.
42 -0.466 -0.120 ******* 0.990 2.163 1.948 ******* 2.644 2.836 2.595 ******* 3.481 2.798 2.592 -9999.00 3.338 56,470. 56,470. 0. 56,207.
45 -0.733 -0.289 ******* 0.915 2.496 2.279 ******* 2.831 3.240 3.026 ******* 3.719 3.156 3.012 -9999.00 3.605 55,936. 55,936. 0. 55,640.
48 -1.386 -0.894 ******* -0.278 2.736 2.395 ******* 2.675 3.450 3.103 ******* 3.486 3.160 2.972 -9999.00 3.475 56,565. 56,565. 0. 56,279.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999121300 to 2000073100

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 1.813 1.841 ******* -1.960 2.433 2.422 ******* 2.718 3.264 3.277 ******* 3.496 2.714 2.711 -9999.00 2.895 53,591. 53,591. 0. 52,677.
3 0.385 0.401 ******* -0.953 1.784 1.675 ******* 2.128 2.398 2.267 ******* 2.839 2.367 2.231 -9999.00 2.674 55,677. 55,677. 0. 54,517.
6 0.052 0.283 0.397 0.386 1.930 1.781 1.785 2.346 2.564 2.407 2.418 3.092 2.563 2.390 2.385 3.068 56,542. 56,542. 55,459. 55,645.
9 -0.332 -0.086 0.200 0.526 2.170 2.004 1.967 2.566 2.894 2.724 2.679 3.366 2.875 2.722 2.671 3.325 55,931. 55,931. 55,250. 55,062.
12 -1.031 -0.810 -0.475 -0.535 2.341 2.092 1.941 2.513 3.005 2.743 2.594 3.275 2.822 2.621 2.550 3.231 55,908. 55,908. 55,908. 55,296.
15 -0.639 -0.551 -0.206 -1.740 2.019 1.803 1.681 2.792 2.630 2.363 2.213 3.538 2.551 2.298 2.203 3.081 54,325. 54,325. 54,325. 53,490.
18 -0.006 0.038 0.571 -1.361 1.908 1.785 1.807 2.508 2.496 2.338 2.381 3.220 2.496 2.337 2.312 2.919 54,329. 54,329. 54,329. 53,706.
21 0.209 0.312 0.940 -1.194 2.003 1.902 1.996 2.429 2.620 2.501 2.670 3.143 2.612 2.481 2.499 2.907 52,583. 52,583. 52,583. 51,975.
24 0.404 0.527 1.191 -1.149 2.086 2.013 2.172 2.442 2.736 2.665 2.917 3.185 2.706 2.613 2.663 2.970 52,842. 52,842. 52,842. 52,210.
27 -0.349 -0.100 0.497 -0.320 2.004 1.800 1.806 2.095 2.626 2.387 2.407 2.836 2.603 2.384 2.355 2.818 55,252. 55,252. 55,252. 54,594.
30 -0.574 -0.235 0.105 0.766 2.158 1.913 1.862 2.547 2.834 2.544 2.484 3.341 2.775 2.533 2.482 3.252 55,436. 55,436. 55,436. 54,769.
33 -0.765 -0.366 -0.165 0.736 2.436 2.212 2.141 2.741 3.172 2.939 2.858 3.601 3.078 2.917 2.853 3.525 55,362. 55,362. 55,362. 54,692.
36 -1.410 -0.984 -0.861 -0.397 2.648 2.310 2.215 2.635 3.352 2.993 2.886 3.438 3.041 2.826 2.755 3.415 55,434. 55,434. 55,434. 54,778.
39 -0.850 -0.632 ******* -1.531 2.192 1.938 ******* 2.756 2.831 2.525 ******* 3.510 2.701 2.445 -9999.00 3.159 54,715. 54,715. 0. 54,002.
42 -0.135 -0.026 ******* -1.121 2.003 1.887 ******* 2.470 2.597 2.455 ******* 3.182 2.593 2.455 -9999.00 2.978 54,127. 54,127. 0. 53,413.
45 0.108 0.256 ******* -0.960 2.100 2.019 ******* 2.424 2.728 2.636 ******* 3.138 2.725 2.624 -9999.00 2.988 50,991. 50,991. 0. 50,144.
48 0.338 0.484 ******* -0.873 2.197 2.143 ******* 2.445 2.868 2.818 ******* 3.190 2.848 2.776 -9999.00 3.068 50,992. 50,992. 0. 50,294.