MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2000070100 to 2000091412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -2.260 -2.209 ******* 1.645 2.808 2.726 ******* 2.690 3.496 3.426 ******* 3.461 2.667 2.619 -9999.00 3.045 26,521. 26,521. 0. 26,241.
3 -0.656 -0.467 ******* -2.606 2.117 1.899 ******* 3.649 2.719 2.472 ******* 4.442 2.638 2.427 -9999.00 3.597 25,425. 25,425. 0. 25,141.
6 0.385 0.539 0.564 -2.048 2.107 2.010 2.004 3.047 2.774 2.693 2.721 3.732 2.748 2.639 2.663 3.121 26,064. 26,064. 7,900. 25,789.
9 0.896 1.139 0.537 -2.014 2.260 2.241 2.054 2.944 2.999 3.014 2.758 3.632 2.862 2.790 2.706 3.023 25,257. 25,257. 7,773. 24,994.
12 1.423 1.673 1.586 -1.986 2.565 2.605 2.572 2.952 3.379 3.458 3.437 3.672 3.064 3.026 3.049 3.088 25,830. 25,830. 25,830. 25,577.
15 0.164 0.576 0.112 -0.264 2.057 1.953 1.867 2.184 2.692 2.587 2.471 2.797 2.687 2.522 2.469 2.784 24,699. 24,699. 24,699. 24,417.
18 -0.537 -0.148 -0.498 3.350 2.262 1.968 1.949 3.714 2.933 2.582 2.531 4.427 2.883 2.577 2.482 2.894 24,740. 24,740. 24,740. 24,455.
21 -1.267 -0.928 -1.033 3.701 2.588 2.230 2.195 4.090 3.304 2.903 2.828 4.849 3.051 2.751 2.632 3.133 23,774. 23,774. 23,774. 23,491.
24 -2.329 -1.913 -1.965 1.757 3.158 2.704 2.689 2.799 3.863 3.386 3.327 3.652 3.082 2.794 2.686 3.202 25,968. 25,968. 25,968. 25,689.
27 -1.289 -1.235 -1.342 -2.393 2.429 2.204 2.177 3.651 3.074 2.808 2.745 4.445 2.790 2.522 2.395 3.746 24,929. 24,929. 24,929. 24,655.
30 0.003 0.055 0.081 -1.953 2.073 1.951 1.877 3.066 2.658 2.514 2.414 3.760 2.658 2.513 2.413 3.212 25,691. 25,691. 25,691. 25,419.
33 0.550 0.731 0.824 -1.950 2.201 2.132 2.082 2.970 2.851 2.782 2.748 3.666 2.798 2.684 2.621 3.104 24,941. 24,941. 24,941. 24,674.
36 1.101 1.301 1.423 -1.996 2.474 2.457 2.444 3.005 3.198 3.197 3.219 3.739 3.002 2.920 2.887 3.162 25,590. 25,590. 25,590. 25,316.
39 -0.281 -0.037 ******* -0.208 2.049 1.887 ******* 2.208 2.667 2.489 ******* 2.831 2.652 2.488 -9999.00 2.824 24,678. 24,678. 0. 24,407.
42 -1.132 -0.741 ******* 3.644 2.459 2.117 ******* 3.962 3.135 2.747 ******* 4.697 2.923 2.646 -9999.00 2.964 24,688. 24,688. 0. 24,425.
45 -1.837 -1.383 ******* 3.892 2.956 2.549 ******* 4.271 3.663 3.241 ******* 5.051 3.169 2.931 -9999.00 3.220 23,994. 23,994. 0. 23,534.
48 -2.831 -2.315 ******* 1.827 3.570 3.098 ******* 2.929 4.291 3.805 ******* 3.813 3.225 3.021 -9999.00 3.346 26,258. 26,258. 0. 25,970.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2000070100 to 2000091412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 2.652 2.761 ******* -3.116 3.109 3.176 ******* 3.638 4.087 4.186 ******* 4.484 3.109 3.147 -9999.00 3.225 26,045. 26,045. 0. 25,321.
3 0.206 0.317 ******* -0.843 1.875 1.821 ******* 2.230 2.485 2.440 ******* 2.828 2.477 2.419 -9999.00 2.700 24,923. 24,923. 0. 24,213.
6 -0.378 -0.181 0.068 2.915 2.061 1.857 1.813 3.320 2.709 2.467 2.413 4.006 2.682 2.461 2.412 2.748 24,985. 24,985. 7,970. 24,343.
9 -1.059 -0.940 -0.406 3.453 2.449 2.190 1.930 3.861 3.153 2.866 2.593 4.611 2.969 2.707 2.561 3.055 24,478. 24,478. 7,963. 23,753.
12 -2.219 -2.142 -1.935 1.551 3.028 2.807 2.654 2.644 3.729 3.490 3.341 3.453 2.996 2.756 2.724 3.085 26,465. 26,465. 26,465. 25,811.
15 -1.615 -1.625 -1.186 -2.533 2.544 2.362 2.114 3.674 3.202 2.983 2.677 4.453 2.766 2.502 2.400 3.663 25,129. 25,129. 25,129. 24,568.
18 -0.527 -0.497 0.251 -2.156 2.131 2.017 1.934 3.137 2.705 2.557 2.490 3.837 2.653 2.509 2.478 3.174 26,127. 26,127. 26,127. 25,527.
21 -0.101 0.076 0.929 -2.177 2.174 2.069 2.142 3.065 2.763 2.647 2.829 3.771 2.761 2.646 2.672 3.079 25,352. 25,352. 25,352. 24,779.
24 0.354 0.565 1.439 -2.255 2.294 2.234 2.453 3.118 2.932 2.876 3.228 3.861 2.910 2.820 2.889 3.134 26,007. 26,007. 26,007. 25,422.
27 -1.038 -0.676 0.160 -0.475 2.242 1.969 1.873 2.221 2.869 2.571 2.474 2.832 2.674 2.480 2.469 2.792 24,691. 24,691. 24,691. 24,058.
30 -1.616 -1.206 -0.677 3.361 2.674 2.278 2.066 3.727 3.343 2.896 2.687 4.451 2.926 2.633 2.601 2.917 24,750. 24,750. 24,750. 24,044.
33 -2.166 -1.772 -1.381 3.617 3.120 2.693 2.483 4.065 3.817 3.369 3.153 4.860 3.144 2.865 2.834 3.246 24,163. 24,163. 24,163. 23,537.
36 -3.043 -2.638 -2.328 1.696 3.693 3.255 3.034 2.818 4.402 3.952 3.701 3.694 3.180 2.943 2.877 3.282 26,539. 26,539. 26,539. 25,894.
39 -2.079 -1.881 ******* -2.444 2.866 2.581 ******* 3.690 3.558 3.239 ******* 4.486 2.888 2.637 -9999.00 3.762 25,536. 25,536. 0. 24,808.
42 -0.782 -0.649 ******* -2.017 2.214 2.063 ******* 3.101 2.796 2.614 ******* 3.799 2.684 2.533 -9999.00 3.219 26,316. 26,316. 0. 25,574.
45 -0.223 -0.033 ******* -2.023 2.208 2.093 ******* 3.002 2.793 2.664 ******* 3.706 2.784 2.664 -9999.00 3.105 25,535. 25,535. 0. 24,820.
48 0.309 0.496 ******* -2.085 2.322 2.268 ******* 3.045 2.952 2.894 ******* 3.792 2.936 2.851 -9999.00 3.167 26,197. 26,197. 0. 25,475.