MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2000091500 to 2000111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.851 -0.895 ******* -0.178 1.814 1.812 ******* 2.083 2.430 2.421 ******* 2.667 2.276 2.250 -9999.00 2.661 25,521. 25,521. 0. 25,521.
3 1.612 1.610 ******* -0.300 2.294 2.249 ******* 2.126 3.110 3.064 ******* 2.685 2.659 2.607 -9999.00 2.668 25,155. 25,155. 0. 25,155.
6 1.691 1.810 ******* -0.297 2.584 2.576 ******* 2.339 3.561 3.571 ******* 2.971 3.134 3.078 -9999.00 2.956 25,460. 25,460. 0. 25,460.
9 1.815 2.008 ******* -0.398 2.828 2.835 ******* 2.550 3.910 3.944 ******* 3.246 3.463 3.395 -9999.00 3.222 24,816. 24,816. 0. 24,816.
12 1.903 2.134 2.124 -0.493 2.980 3.003 2.993 2.669 4.122 4.183 4.168 3.406 3.656 3.597 3.586 3.371 25,432. 25,432. 25,432. 25,432.
15 1.340 1.576 1.624 -0.871 2.794 2.776 2.744 2.770 3.791 3.802 3.764 3.587 3.546 3.460 3.395 3.480 25,218. 25,218. 25,218. 25,218.
18 -1.445 -1.253 -1.511 -0.631 2.638 2.403 2.478 2.382 3.305 3.022 3.098 3.015 2.972 2.750 2.705 2.948 23,883. 23,883. 23,883. 23,883.
21 -1.932 -1.831 -2.043 -0.645 2.805 2.635 2.761 2.357 3.480 3.281 3.414 2.991 2.895 2.722 2.735 2.920 23,803. 23,803. 23,803. 23,803.
24 -1.212 -1.215 -1.450 -0.652 2.322 2.196 2.305 2.367 2.967 2.829 2.940 3.004 2.708 2.555 2.557 2.933 25,600. 25,600. 25,600. 25,600.
27 1.134 1.065 0.923 -0.579 2.286 2.156 2.060 2.279 3.050 2.872 2.738 2.878 2.832 2.667 2.578 2.819 25,312. 25,312. 25,312. 25,312.
30 1.376 1.410 1.433 -0.440 2.582 2.504 2.449 2.431 3.493 3.385 3.316 3.085 3.211 3.077 2.991 3.054 25,453. 25,453. 25,453. 25,453.
33 1.554 1.664 1.760 -0.484 2.843 2.788 2.741 2.588 3.848 3.792 3.738 3.308 3.521 3.407 3.298 3.273 24,770. 24,770. 24,770. 24,770.
36 1.662 1.841 1.994 -0.570 2.993 2.960 2.943 2.688 4.017 4.007 3.992 3.452 3.657 3.560 3.458 3.405 25,013. 25,013. 25,013. 25,013.
39 1.133 1.340 ******* -1.068 2.858 2.789 ******* 2.868 3.781 3.729 ******* 3.709 3.607 3.480 -9999.00 3.552 25,453. 25,453. 0. 25,453.
42 -1.662 -1.464 ******* -0.741 2.800 2.586 ******* 2.450 3.519 3.257 ******* 3.097 3.101 2.910 -9999.00 3.007 24,040. 24,040. 0. 24,040.
45 -2.183 -2.036 ******* -0.787 3.056 2.901 ******* 2.468 3.783 3.606 ******* 3.111 3.090 2.977 -9999.00 3.010 23,802. 23,802. 0. 23,801.
48 -1.395 -1.340 ******* -0.869 2.547 2.452 ******* 2.495 3.251 3.140 ******* 3.143 2.937 2.839 -9999.00 3.021 25,423. 25,423. 0. 25,421.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2000091500 to 2000111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 2.650 2.507 ******* -1.258 3.143 3.062 ******* 2.729 4.342 4.245 ******* 3.541 3.440 3.426 -9999.00 3.310 25,492. 25,492. 0. 25,065.
3 1.666 1.549 ******* -1.030 2.696 2.559 ******* 2.659 3.707 3.543 ******* 3.470 3.312 3.187 -9999.00 3.314 25,277. 25,277. 0. 24,840.
6 -1.244 -1.302 ******* -0.658 2.434 2.333 ******* 2.289 3.104 2.970 ******* 2.918 2.844 2.669 -9999.00 2.843 23,943. 23,943. 0. 23,587.
9 -1.773 -1.884 ******* -0.562 2.672 2.632 ******* 2.254 3.315 3.262 ******* 2.849 2.802 2.663 -9999.00 2.794 23,863. 23,863. 0. 23,428.
12 -1.215 -1.368 -1.376 -0.591 2.332 2.299 2.304 2.316 2.962 2.929 2.934 2.918 2.701 2.590 2.592 2.857 25,600. 25,600. 25,600. 25,161.
15 0.984 0.787 0.918 -0.575 2.146 1.973 1.998 2.218 2.831 2.619 2.667 2.787 2.655 2.498 2.504 2.727 25,312. 25,312. 25,312. 24,883.
18 1.079 1.061 1.431 -0.490 2.401 2.291 2.390 2.379 3.213 3.091 3.263 3.015 3.026 2.904 2.933 2.975 25,453. 25,453. 25,453. 25,021.
21 1.205 1.271 1.747 -0.527 2.634 2.538 2.665 2.556 3.554 3.462 3.669 3.260 3.343 3.220 3.226 3.217 24,346. 24,346. 24,346. 23,927.
24 1.261 1.405 1.938 -0.609 2.742 2.681 2.841 2.658 3.700 3.658 3.909 3.403 3.479 3.378 3.395 3.348 25,014. 25,014. 25,014. 24,588.
27 0.647 0.827 1.399 -1.051 2.652 2.550 2.616 2.814 3.520 3.422 3.554 3.648 3.460 3.321 3.267 3.494 24,967. 24,967. 24,967. 24,549.
30 -2.068 -1.946 -1.622 -0.786 2.909 2.752 2.532 2.376 3.663 3.463 3.201 3.010 3.023 2.864 2.760 2.906 22,512. 22,512. 22,512. 22,082.
33 -2.368 -2.324 -2.140 -0.784 3.117 3.015 2.877 2.425 3.837 3.735 3.587 3.045 3.019 2.924 2.879 2.943 22,335. 22,335. 22,335. 21,905.
36 -1.517 -1.559 -1.455 -0.791 2.515 2.452 2.375 2.436 3.188 3.135 3.051 3.067 2.803 2.720 2.682 2.963 24,028. 24,028. 24,028. 23,577.
39 0.750 0.622 ******* -0.704 2.180 2.040 ******* 2.333 2.851 2.671 ******* 2.939 2.750 2.597 -9999.00 2.853 24,512. 24,512. 0. 24,107.
42 0.949 0.967 ******* -0.530 2.478 2.389 ******* 2.511 3.272 3.153 ******* 3.184 3.132 3.001 -9999.00 3.140 24,655. 24,655. 0. 24,242.
45 1.071 1.173 ******* -0.571 2.726 2.641 ******* 2.713 3.618 3.521 ******* 3.446 3.456 3.320 -9999.00 3.398 23,991. 23,991. 0. 23,618.
48 1.183 1.362 ******* -0.695 2.907 2.844 ******* 2.881 3.840 3.786 ******* 3.657 3.653 3.532 -9999.00 3.590 24,660. 24,660. 0. 24,275.