MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2000091500 to 2000111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -1.039 -0.986 ******* -0.434 2.026 1.919 ******* 2.401 2.605 2.505 ******* 3.006 2.389 2.303 -9999.00 2.975 25,521. 25,521. 0. 25,521.
3 0.680 0.760 ******* -1.928 1.903 1.834 ******* 2.840 2.477 2.419 ******* 3.552 2.382 2.297 -9999.00 2.984 25,155. 25,155. 0. 25,155.
6 0.868 1.005 ******* -1.858 2.138 2.106 ******* 2.814 2.842 2.840 ******* 3.540 2.706 2.656 -9999.00 3.014 25,460. 25,460. 0. 25,460.
9 1.033 1.211 ******* -1.907 2.344 2.333 ******* 2.912 3.163 3.188 ******* 3.678 2.990 2.949 -9999.00 3.145 24,816. 24,816. 0. 24,816.
12 1.208 1.381 1.442 -1.914 2.545 2.530 2.566 2.984 3.425 3.448 3.511 3.779 3.205 3.160 3.201 3.259 25,432. 25,432. 25,432. 25,432.
15 0.784 0.981 0.754 -1.992 2.460 2.428 2.362 3.099 3.257 3.250 3.151 3.972 3.161 3.098 3.060 3.437 25,218. 25,218. 25,218. 25,218.
18 -0.835 -0.504 -0.851 0.515 2.272 2.060 2.116 2.408 2.851 2.604 2.665 3.025 2.726 2.555 2.525 2.981 23,883. 23,883. 23,883. 23,883.
21 -1.187 -0.875 -1.049 0.648 2.405 2.160 2.192 2.562 3.033 2.765 2.789 3.237 2.791 2.622 2.584 3.171 23,803. 23,803. 23,803. 23,803.
24 -1.285 -1.043 -1.250 -0.870 2.399 2.135 2.179 2.686 3.019 2.724 2.762 3.360 2.732 2.517 2.463 3.246 25,600. 25,600. 25,600. 25,600.
27 0.342 0.365 0.189 -2.060 2.012 1.878 1.792 3.010 2.577 2.410 2.296 3.769 2.555 2.382 2.288 3.157 25,312. 25,312. 25,312. 25,312.
30 0.643 0.691 0.618 -1.867 2.221 2.136 2.051 2.888 2.897 2.789 2.689 3.652 2.824 2.702 2.617 3.139 25,453. 25,453. 25,453. 25,453.
33 0.816 0.915 0.904 -1.898 2.420 2.363 2.288 2.948 3.197 3.139 3.051 3.744 3.091 3.003 2.914 3.228 24,770. 24,770. 24,770. 24,770.
36 0.964 1.090 1.116 -1.930 2.595 2.540 2.478 3.020 3.391 3.349 3.282 3.845 3.251 3.167 3.087 3.326 25,013. 25,013. 25,013. 25,013.
39 0.558 0.671 ******* -2.196 2.554 2.471 ******* 3.262 3.303 3.220 ******* 4.162 3.256 3.149 -9999.00 3.536 25,453. 25,453. 0. 25,453.
42 -1.074 -0.813 ******* 0.415 2.414 2.241 ******* 2.438 3.047 2.837 ******* 3.085 2.851 2.718 -9999.00 3.057 24,040. 24,040. 0. 24,040.
45 -1.434 -1.078 ******* 0.505 2.627 2.408 ******* 2.601 3.317 3.079 ******* 3.316 2.991 2.885 -9999.00 3.278 23,802. 23,802. 0. 23,801.
48 -1.483 -1.192 ******* -1.124 2.634 2.397 ******* 2.845 3.321 3.054 ******* 3.545 2.972 2.812 -9999.00 3.362 25,423. 25,423. 0. 25,421.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2000091500 to 2000111412

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 2.556 2.525 ******* -2.521 2.997 2.979 ******* 3.288 4.053 4.056 ******* 4.187 3.145 3.175 -9999.00 3.344 25,492. 25,492. 0. 25,065.
3 0.804 0.778 ******* -2.138 2.221 2.168 ******* 3.078 2.995 2.939 ******* 3.967 2.885 2.834 -9999.00 3.341 25,277. 25,277. 0. 24,840.
6 -0.680 -0.540 ******* 0.561 2.089 1.961 ******* 2.266 2.648 2.504 ******* 2.853 2.559 2.445 -9999.00 2.798 23,943. 23,943. 0. 23,587.
9 -1.007 -0.960 ******* 0.773 2.258 2.123 ******* 2.424 2.847 2.694 ******* 3.087 2.663 2.517 -9999.00 2.989 23,863. 23,863. 0. 23,428.
12 -1.308 -1.340 -1.264 -0.828 2.442 2.316 2.237 2.666 3.038 2.909 2.818 3.311 2.741 2.581 2.518 3.206 25,600. 25,600. 25,600. 25,161.
15 0.022 -0.057 0.210 -2.076 1.914 1.779 1.751 3.012 2.437 2.270 2.258 3.766 2.437 2.270 2.248 3.143 25,312. 25,312. 25,312. 24,883.
18 0.177 0.182 0.615 -1.918 2.085 1.976 2.003 2.909 2.682 2.558 2.651 3.672 2.676 2.551 2.578 3.131 25,453. 25,453. 25,453. 25,021.
21 0.287 0.345 0.853 -1.932 2.252 2.152 2.197 2.958 2.944 2.840 2.968 3.750 2.930 2.819 2.843 3.215 24,346. 24,346. 24,346. 23,927.
24 0.404 0.490 1.022 -1.948 2.374 2.284 2.351 3.019 3.103 3.015 3.172 3.839 3.077 2.975 3.003 3.308 25,014. 25,014. 25,014. 24,588.
27 -0.124 0.002 0.571 -2.153 2.419 2.297 2.280 3.213 3.132 3.001 3.019 4.116 3.130 3.001 2.965 3.508 24,967. 24,967. 24,967. 24,549.
30 -1.557 -1.323 -0.922 0.311 2.515 2.345 2.152 2.343 3.160 2.963 2.740 2.943 2.750 2.651 2.580 2.926 22,512. 22,512. 22,512. 22,082.
33 -1.610 -1.370 -1.104 0.462 2.663 2.455 2.306 2.529 3.325 3.120 2.949 3.212 2.910 2.803 2.734 3.179 22,335. 22,335. 22,335. 21,905.
36 -1.615 -1.451 -1.280 -1.071 2.633 2.432 2.285 2.805 3.284 3.073 2.908 3.489 2.859 2.709 2.612 3.321 24,028. 24,028. 24,028. 23,577.
39 -0.205 -0.236 ******* -2.180 2.020 1.891 ******* 3.108 2.569 2.404 ******* 3.901 2.561 2.393 -9999.00 3.235 24,512. 24,512. 0. 24,107.
42 0.048 0.066 ******* -1.964 2.220 2.110 ******* 3.027 2.827 2.693 ******* 3.827 2.827 2.692 -9999.00 3.284 24,655. 24,655. 0. 24,242.
45 0.181 0.247 ******* -1.983 2.405 2.309 ******* 3.122 3.095 2.980 ******* 3.947 3.089 2.970 -9999.00 3.413 23,991. 23,991. 0. 23,618.
48 0.352 0.445 ******* -2.044 2.592 2.495 ******* 3.244 3.326 3.221 ******* 4.114 3.308 3.190 -9999.00 3.571 24,660. 24,660. 0. 24,275.