MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2000111500 to 2001022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 0.065 0.081 ******* -1.646 1.832 1.789 ******* 2.730 2.467 2.432 ******* 3.517 2.466 2.430 -9999.00 3.108 40,123. 40,123. 0. 40,123.
3 0.347 0.309 ******* -1.887 1.831 1.747 ******* 2.820 2.421 2.328 ******* 3.564 2.396 2.308 -9999.00 3.024 40,153. 40,153. 0. 40,153.
6 0.296 0.318 ******* -2.068 2.037 1.956 ******* 3.015 2.675 2.589 ******* 3.810 2.658 2.570 -9999.00 3.199 40,073. 40,073. 0. 40,073.
9 0.315 0.360 ******* -2.136 2.192 2.105 ******* 3.121 2.878 2.786 ******* 3.946 2.861 2.763 -9999.00 3.318 39,900. 39,900. 0. 39,900.
12 0.416 0.463 0.530 -2.155 2.318 2.241 2.273 3.170 3.032 2.957 3.010 4.029 3.004 2.920 2.963 3.405 40,264. 40,264. 40,264. 40,264.
15 0.484 0.541 0.468 -2.101 2.404 2.311 2.283 3.161 3.115 3.024 2.994 4.035 3.077 2.975 2.957 3.445 39,955. 39,955. 39,955. 39,955.
18 -0.142 -0.041 -0.288 -1.219 2.175 2.084 2.076 2.490 2.839 2.731 2.705 3.218 2.836 2.730 2.690 2.978 39,359. 39,359. 39,359. 39,359.
21 -0.365 -0.251 -0.426 -1.077 2.381 2.304 2.252 2.526 3.168 3.097 3.025 3.251 3.147 3.087 2.995 3.067 38,275. 38,275. 38,275. 38,275.
24 -0.360 -0.342 -0.525 -1.808 2.249 2.118 2.092 2.838 2.973 2.836 2.793 3.645 2.951 2.815 2.743 3.165 39,959. 39,959. 39,959. 39,959.
27 0.485 0.419 0.295 -1.762 2.173 2.046 1.996 2.819 2.834 2.683 2.612 3.601 2.793 2.650 2.595 3.140 39,960. 39,960. 39,960. 39,960.
30 0.528 0.506 0.420 -1.804 2.323 2.196 2.137 2.924 3.013 2.876 2.801 3.754 2.966 2.831 2.769 3.292 39,820. 39,820. 39,820. 39,820.
33 0.554 0.556 0.512 -1.826 2.459 2.341 2.266 2.995 3.184 3.053 2.973 3.851 3.136 3.002 2.928 3.390 39,747. 39,747. 39,747. 39,747.
36 0.619 0.637 0.617 -1.861 2.561 2.441 2.369 3.051 3.314 3.186 3.115 3.948 3.255 3.122 3.053 3.482 40,211. 40,211. 40,211. 40,211.
39 0.664 0.676 ******* -1.855 2.647 2.513 ******* 3.092 3.412 3.267 ******* 4.010 3.347 3.196 -9999.00 3.555 39,900. 39,900. 0. 39,900.
42 -0.097 -0.043 ******* -1.183 2.385 2.281 ******* 2.558 3.093 2.961 ******* 3.318 3.091 2.960 -9999.00 3.100 39,388. 39,388. 0. 39,388.
45 -0.449 -0.283 ******* -1.136 2.596 2.516 ******* 2.591 3.423 3.350 ******* 3.316 3.394 3.338 -9999.00 3.115 38,132. 38,132. 0. 38,130.
48 -0.403 -0.353 ******* -1.785 2.500 2.380 ******* 2.889 3.261 3.135 ******* 3.711 3.236 3.115 -9999.00 3.253 39,715. 39,715. 0. 39,713.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2000111500 to 2001022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 2.021 1.896 ******* -2.384 2.610 2.553 ******* 3.240 3.545 3.489 ******* 4.131 2.912 2.929 -9999.00 3.374 40,366. 40,366. 0. 40,366.
3 0.909 0.762 ******* -2.170 2.177 2.093 ******* 3.100 2.937 2.839 ******* 3.959 2.793 2.735 -9999.00 3.311 40,059. 40,059. 0. 40,059.
6 0.066 0.050 ******* -1.232 2.028 1.959 ******* 2.446 2.692 2.616 ******* 3.196 2.691 2.615 -9999.00 2.949 39,463. 39,463. 0. 39,463.
9 -0.183 -0.250 ******* -1.104 2.316 2.222 ******* 2.544 3.091 2.992 ******* 3.287 3.086 2.982 -9999.00 3.096 38,379. 38,379. 0. 38,379.
12 -0.318 -0.444 -0.363 -1.961 2.151 2.040 2.033 2.925 2.862 2.739 2.744 3.753 2.845 2.703 2.719 3.200 39,959. 39,959. 39,959. 39,959.
15 0.446 0.313 0.443 -1.989 2.023 1.893 1.878 2.934 2.668 2.503 2.501 3.721 2.630 2.484 2.462 3.145 39,960. 39,960. 39,960. 39,960.
18 0.468 0.401 0.590 -2.018 2.149 2.026 2.010 3.021 2.822 2.683 2.679 3.847 2.783 2.653 2.614 3.275 39,820. 39,820. 39,820. 39,820.
21 0.472 0.427 0.646 -1.971 2.268 2.149 2.124 3.044 2.970 2.836 2.833 3.885 2.932 2.804 2.758 3.348 39,330. 39,330. 39,330. 39,330.
24 0.552 0.540 0.760 -1.982 2.397 2.274 2.246 3.088 3.125 2.998 2.993 3.959 3.075 2.949 2.895 3.428 40,211. 40,211. 40,211. 40,211.
27 0.579 0.570 0.809 -1.947 2.495 2.357 2.317 3.105 3.234 3.086 3.071 4.004 3.181 3.033 2.962 3.499 39,843. 39,843. 39,843. 39,843.
30 -0.182 -0.130 0.027 -1.192 2.291 2.179 2.105 2.548 2.992 2.850 2.764 3.296 2.986 2.847 2.764 3.074 39,342. 39,342. 39,342. 39,342.
33 -0.426 -0.321 -0.252 -1.177 2.527 2.433 2.365 2.598 3.351 3.270 3.197 3.338 3.323 3.254 3.187 3.124 38,215. 38,215. 38,215. 38,215.
36 -0.418 -0.392 -0.339 -1.784 2.400 2.263 2.203 2.865 3.154 3.014 2.950 3.683 3.127 2.988 2.931 3.222 39,911. 39,911. 39,911. 39,911.
39 0.444 0.376 ******* -1.706 2.260 2.146 ******* 2.834 2.963 2.812 ******* 3.653 2.929 2.787 -9999.00 3.230 40,006. 40,006. 0. 40,006.
42 0.480 0.450 ******* -1.622 2.390 2.287 ******* 2.972 3.120 2.990 ******* 3.933 3.082 2.956 -9999.00 3.582 39,864. 39,864. 0. 39,861.
45 0.442 0.440 ******* -1.732 2.506 2.409 ******* 2.990 3.263 3.140 ******* 3.878 3.233 3.109 -9999.00 3.470 39,798. 39,798. 0. 39,374.
48 0.449 0.478 ******* -1.741 2.630 2.520 ******* 3.139 3.411 3.277 ******* 4.152 3.382 3.241 -9999.00 3.769 40,184. 40,184. 0. 40,181.