MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 0.103 0.070 0.031 -0.004 -0.094 -1.886 0.035 2.013 2.044 2.025 2.066 2.008 2.877 2.654 2.954 2.981 2.974 3.012 2.792 3.845 3.628 2.952 2.980 2.974 3.012 2.791 3.350 3.628 122,534. 122,534. 122,534. 122,534. 78,660. 122,534. 122,534.
3 0.498 0.170 0.579 0.242 0.731 -1.541 -1.647 2.007 1.959 1.945 1.884 1.949 2.725 2.768 2.936 2.886 2.891 2.822 2.746 3.791 3.688 2.893 2.881 2.832 2.811 2.647 3.464 3.300 123,157. 123,157. 123,157. 123,157. 79,000. 123,157. 123,157.
6 0.676 0.309 0.813 0.426 0.955 -0.940 -1.340 2.176 2.107 2.127 2.041 2.106 2.476 2.670 3.161 3.081 3.134 3.032 3.128 3.448 3.591 3.088 3.066 3.027 3.002 2.979 3.317 3.331 121,016. 121,016. 121,016. 121,016. 121,016. 121,016. 121,016.
9 0.774 0.426 0.962 0.573 1.144 -0.819 -1.213 2.319 2.264 2.283 2.205 2.269 2.521 2.697 3.356 3.286 3.348 3.251 3.355 3.539 3.636 3.265 3.259 3.207 3.201 3.154 3.443 3.428 117,532. 117,532. 117,532. 117,532. 117,532. 117,532. 117,532.
12 0.819 0.505 1.031 0.664 1.230 -0.650 -1.230 2.414 2.375 2.383 2.314 2.375 2.528 2.749 3.457 3.401 3.457 3.370 3.475 3.546 3.685 3.358 3.364 3.300 3.304 3.250 3.486 3.474 119,984. 119,984. 119,984. 119,984. 119,984. 119,984. 119,984.
15 0.554 0.315 0.743 0.441 0.953 -0.531 -0.518 2.375 2.365 2.317 2.280 2.288 2.500 2.738 3.415 3.394 3.381 3.330 3.368 3.535 3.720 3.370 3.379 3.299 3.301 3.230 3.495 3.684 120,385. 120,385. 120,385. 120,385. 120,385. 120,385. 120,385.
18 -0.453 -0.600 -0.141 -0.348 0.089 -0.721 1.849 2.272 2.293 2.147 2.150 2.081 2.543 3.103 3.265 3.292 3.145 3.149 3.069 3.546 4.130 3.233 3.237 3.142 3.129 3.068 3.472 3.693 122,321. 122,321. 122,321. 122,321. 122,321. 122,321. 122,321.
21 -0.887 -0.970 -0.446 -0.576 -0.207 -0.942 1.846 2.547 2.583 2.377 2.399 2.302 2.764 3.234 3.555 3.590 3.410 3.430 3.338 3.783 4.276 3.443 3.457 3.381 3.381 3.332 3.664 3.857 122,119. 122,119. 122,119. 122,119. 122,119. 122,119. 122,119.
24 -1.034 -1.141 -0.655 -0.810 -0.460 -1.772 -0.110 2.485 2.518 2.242 2.276 2.130 2.896 2.720 3.454 3.491 3.244 3.276 3.143 3.878 3.691 3.295 3.300 3.177 3.174 3.109 3.450 3.689 121,180. 121,180. 121,180. 121,180. 121,180. 121,180. 121,180.
27 -0.040 -0.198 0.100 -0.097 0.275 -1.473 -1.375 2.098 2.107 1.969 1.966 1.907 2.725 2.697 3.029 3.040 2.916 2.912 2.860 3.809 3.616 3.028 3.033 2.914 2.911 2.846 3.512 3.344 121,337. 121,337. 121,337. 121,337. 121,337. 121,337. 121,337.
30 0.256 0.063 0.402 0.174 0.606 -0.831 -1.101 2.210 2.218 2.115 2.107 2.072 2.487 2.631 3.173 3.177 3.097 3.080 3.070 3.483 3.559 3.163 3.176 3.071 3.075 3.009 3.382 3.385 121,067. 121,067. 121,067. 121,067. 121,067. 121,067. 121,067.
33 0.433 0.250 0.600 0.371 0.811 -0.699 -1.069 2.346 2.345 2.264 2.258 2.229 2.562 2.691 3.359 3.347 3.295 3.271 3.278 3.591 3.640 3.331 3.338 3.240 3.250 3.176 3.522 3.479 116,810. 116,810. 116,810. 116,810. 116,810. 116,810. 116,810.
36 0.530 0.372 0.719 0.494 0.932 -0.573 -1.120 2.457 2.462 2.374 2.375 2.346 2.610 2.754 3.479 3.472 3.413 3.397 3.404 3.646 3.701 3.438 3.452 3.337 3.361 3.274 3.601 3.528 119,193. 119,193. 119,193. 119,193. 119,193. 119,193. 119,193.
39 0.305 0.167 0.479 0.263 0.704 -0.510 -0.471 2.464 2.466 2.356 2.367 2.315 2.607 2.788 3.505 3.503 3.413 3.410 3.378 3.663 3.773 3.492 3.499 3.380 3.400 3.304 3.627 3.744 119,195. 119,195. 119,195. 119,195. 119,195. 119,195. 119,195.
42 -0.706 -0.790 -0.369 -0.512 -0.117 -0.742 2.007 2.429 2.440 2.270 2.296 2.190 2.641 3.277 3.451 3.469 3.294 3.322 3.205 3.679 4.337 3.378 3.378 3.274 3.282 3.203 3.603 3.844 120,895. 120,895. 120,895. 120,895. 120,895. 120,895. 120,895.
45 -1.113 -1.111 -0.627 -0.686 -0.367 -1.005 2.023 2.772 2.775 2.574 2.593 2.494 2.879 3.427 3.804 3.806 3.635 3.648 3.557 3.926 4.519 3.638 3.641 3.580 3.583 3.538 3.796 4.041 121,281. 121,281. 121,281. 121,281. 121,281. 121,281. 121,281.
48 -1.223 -1.243 -0.827 -0.904 -0.608 -1.864 0.029 2.706 2.711 2.440 2.471 2.324 3.046 2.815 3.703 3.711 3.464 3.494 3.358 4.056 3.813 3.495 3.497 3.364 3.375 3.302 3.602 3.813 119,407. 119,407. 119,407. 119,407. 119,407. 119,407. 119,407.
51 -0.236 -0.327 -0.074 -0.217 ******* -1.472 -1.326 2.239 2.248 2.089 2.112 ******* 2.826 2.730 3.182 3.196 3.049 3.069 ******* 3.928 3.663 3.174 3.180 3.048 3.061 -9999.00 3.641 3.414 120,844. 120,844. 120,844. 120,844. 0. 120,844. 120,844.
54 0.056 -0.050 0.220 0.069 ******* -0.908 -1.087 2.331 2.347 2.208 2.239 ******* 2.636 2.671 3.296 3.312 3.188 3.209 ******* 3.644 3.611 3.296 3.312 3.180 3.208 -9999.00 3.530 3.443 120,455. 120,455. 120,455. 120,455. 0. 120,455. 120,455.
57 0.222 0.125 0.416 0.255 ******* -0.811 -1.036 2.476 2.483 2.369 2.385 ******* 2.745 2.735 3.484 3.493 3.388 3.398 ******* 3.797 3.694 3.477 3.490 3.363 3.389 -9999.00 3.709 3.546 116,324. 116,324. 116,324. 116,324. 0. 116,324. 116,324.
60 0.325 0.265 0.544 0.406 ******* -0.716 -1.102 2.589 2.595 2.487 2.499 ******* 2.796 2.811 3.609 3.616 3.516 3.519 ******* 3.857 3.767 3.594 3.606 3.474 3.496 -9999.00 3.790 3.602 118,352. 118,352. 118,352. 118,352. 0. 118,352. 118,352.
63 0.128 0.091 0.332 0.206 ******* -0.631 -0.449 2.592 2.602 2.476 2.502 ******* 2.760 2.852 3.642 3.651 3.533 3.546 ******* 3.835 3.848 3.640 3.650 3.517 3.540 -9999.00 3.783 3.821 119,460. 119,460. 119,460. 119,460. 0. 119,460. 119,460.
66 -0.826 -0.790 -0.458 -0.489 ******* -0.908 2.076 2.547 2.574 2.374 2.439 ******* 2.771 3.385 3.580 3.608 3.403 3.469 ******* 3.816 4.463 3.483 3.520 3.372 3.434 -9999.00 3.707 3.951 120,863. 120,863. 120,863. 120,863. 0. 120,863. 120,863.
69 -1.158 -1.074 -0.657 -0.632 ******* -1.088 2.078 2.875 2.891 2.665 2.728 ******* 3.013 3.548 3.921 3.945 3.741 3.803 ******* 4.060 4.676 3.747 3.796 3.683 3.750 -9999.00 3.911 4.189 119,200. 119,200. 119,200. 119,200. 0. 119,200. 119,200.
72 -1.251 -1.177 -0.816 -0.802 ******* -1.846 0.122 2.812 2.808 2.529 2.587 ******* 3.140 2.925 3.836 3.846 3.574 3.638 ******* 4.160 3.953 3.627 3.661 3.479 3.548 -9999.00 3.728 3.951 117,516. 117,516. 117,516. 117,516. 0. 117,516. 117,516.


12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5-ETA  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5-ETA  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.722 -0.743 -0.771 -0.793 -0.972 -0.416 -1.727 2.272 2.312 2.296 2.348 2.462 2.458 2.913 3.281 3.314 3.300 3.343 3.331 3.450 3.915 3.201 3.229 3.208 3.248 3.186 3.425 3.514 119,279. 119,279. 119,279. 119,279. 76,527. 119,279. 119,279.
3 -0.772 -1.103 -0.575 -0.962 -0.426 -0.057 -0.982 2.379 2.460 2.282 2.357 2.278 2.434 2.739 3.392 3.476 3.293 3.366 3.111 3.478 3.715 3.303 3.296 3.242 3.225 3.081 3.477 3.583 120,056. 120,056. 120,056. 120,056. 76,887. 120,056. 120,056.
6 -1.194 -1.343 -0.980 -1.175 -0.859 -0.181 1.513 2.390 2.466 2.260 2.350 2.163 2.387 2.869 3.407 3.492 3.265 3.367 3.150 3.383 3.870 3.191 3.224 3.115 3.155 3.031 3.379 3.563 119,351. 119,351. 119,351. 119,351. 119,351. 119,351. 119,351.
9 -1.250 -1.424 -1.007 -1.187 -0.860 -0.462 1.613 2.610 2.718 2.460 2.562 2.379 2.588 3.041 3.598 3.705 3.467 3.569 3.387 3.567 4.060 3.374 3.420 3.317 3.366 3.276 3.537 3.726 121,197. 121,197. 121,197. 121,197. 121,197. 121,197. 121,197.
12 -1.373 -1.572 -1.162 -1.354 -1.031 -1.064 -0.364 2.538 2.648 2.351 2.443 2.249 2.502 2.731 3.493 3.608 3.333 3.435 3.238 3.451 3.681 3.211 3.248 3.123 3.157 3.070 3.282 3.663 120,353. 120,353. 120,353. 120,353. 120,353. 120,353. 120,353.
15 -0.506 -0.734 -0.449 -0.686 -0.302 -1.181 -1.584 2.069 2.129 1.944 1.999 1.852 2.573 2.760 2.990 3.052 2.882 2.937 2.787 3.600 3.688 2.947 2.963 2.847 2.856 2.770 3.401 3.330 120,578. 120,578. 120,578. 120,578. 120,578. 120,578. 120,578.
18 -0.239 -0.479 -0.132 -0.391 0.055 -0.577 -1.296 2.145 2.192 2.033 2.071 1.944 2.390 2.660 3.081 3.130 2.981 3.019 2.895 3.357 3.590 3.072 3.093 2.978 2.993 2.894 3.307 3.349 120,244. 120,244. 120,244. 120,244. 120,244. 120,244. 120,244.
21 -0.047 -0.272 0.095 -0.161 0.288 -0.430 -1.198 2.248 2.286 2.143 2.177 2.062 2.452 2.685 3.225 3.261 3.133 3.160 3.056 3.467 3.635 3.224 3.250 3.132 3.156 3.043 3.440 3.432 115,251. 115,251. 115,251. 115,251. 115,251. 115,251. 115,251.
24 0.089 -0.117 0.259 0.008 0.457 -0.519 -1.231 2.340 2.371 2.239 2.267 2.166 2.563 2.744 3.320 3.347 3.231 3.249 3.167 3.563 3.687 3.318 3.345 3.221 3.249 3.134 3.525 3.475 117,009. 117,009. 117,009. 117,009. 117,009. 117,009. 117,009.
27 -0.118 -0.296 0.076 -0.165 0.279 -0.263 -0.621 2.392 2.424 2.268 2.307 2.183 2.509 2.731 3.405 3.443 3.295 3.329 3.205 3.541 3.704 3.403 3.431 3.294 3.325 3.193 3.531 3.652 117,527. 117,527. 117,527. 117,527. 117,527. 117,527. 117,527.
30 -1.030 -1.172 -0.710 -0.885 -0.484 -0.536 1.792 2.465 2.523 2.283 2.359 2.169 2.554 3.097 3.489 3.560 3.305 3.385 3.179 3.569 4.125 3.334 3.362 3.228 3.267 3.142 3.529 3.716 119,223. 119,223. 119,223. 119,223. 119,223. 119,223. 119,223.
33 -1.323 -1.396 -0.918 -1.019 -0.679 -0.787 1.774 2.770 2.824 2.568 2.640 2.475 2.763 3.245 3.790 3.849 3.614 3.682 3.524 3.782 4.298 3.552 3.587 3.495 3.538 3.458 3.699 3.915 119,522. 119,522. 119,522. 119,522. 119,522. 119,522. 119,522.
36 -1.399 -1.484 -1.065 -1.176 -0.869 -1.355 -0.162 2.681 2.745 2.437 2.519 2.316 2.691 2.775 3.663 3.737 3.449 3.533 3.339 3.658 3.748 3.385 3.429 3.280 3.331 3.224 3.398 3.745 118,172. 118,172. 118,172. 118,172. 118,172. 118,172. 118,172.
39 -0.406 -0.540 -0.271 -0.441 -0.083 -1.320 -1.433 2.180 2.211 2.030 2.073 1.957 2.712 2.730 3.108 3.145 2.974 3.016 2.900 3.780 3.661 3.082 3.099 2.962 2.983 2.899 3.542 3.369 119,132. 119,132. 119,132. 119,132. 119,132. 119,132. 119,132.
42 -0.118 -0.250 0.036 -0.133 0.248 -0.724 -1.147 2.274 2.297 2.146 2.173 2.087 2.534 2.656 3.216 3.242 3.101 3.124 3.048 3.522 3.589 3.214 3.232 3.100 3.121 3.038 3.447 3.401 118,179. 118,179. 118,179. 118,179. 118,179. 118,179. 118,179.
45 0.050 -0.062 0.238 0.073 0.452 -0.620 -1.080 2.406 2.433 2.287 2.312 2.234 2.641 2.700 3.389 3.412 3.278 3.296 3.233 3.669 3.656 3.389 3.412 3.270 3.295 3.201 3.617 3.492 113,753. 113,753. 113,753. 113,753. 113,753. 113,753. 113,753.
48 0.173 0.080 0.374 0.223 0.594 -0.711 -1.135 2.519 2.539 2.403 2.426 2.358 2.761 2.767 3.522 3.537 3.415 3.426 3.378 3.797 3.726 3.518 3.536 3.394 3.419 3.326 3.730 3.548 116,114. 116,114. 116,114. 116,114. 116,114. 116,114. 116,114.
51 -0.055 -0.126 0.172 0.028 ******* -0.484 -0.521 2.559 2.570 2.415 2.443 ******* 2.690 2.778 3.594 3.607 3.457 3.476 ******* 3.760 3.766 3.593 3.605 3.453 3.476 -9999.00 3.729 3.730 117,372. 117,372. 117,372. 117,372. 0. 117,372. 117,372.
54 -0.980 -1.019 -0.610 -0.688 ******* -0.721 1.998 2.562 2.587 2.377 2.434 ******* 2.702 3.321 3.606 3.647 3.416 3.478 ******* 3.751 4.389 3.471 3.502 3.361 3.410 -9999.00 3.681 3.908 119,142. 119,142. 119,142. 119,142. 0. 119,142. 119,142.
57 -1.267 -1.254 -0.822 -0.843 ******* -0.886 2.066 2.894 2.915 2.698 2.748 ******* 2.906 3.474 3.950 3.984 3.776 3.831 ******* 3.953 4.580 3.741 3.781 3.686 3.737 -9999.00 3.853 4.087 119,345. 119,345. 119,345. 119,345. 0. 119,345. 119,345.
60 -1.346 -1.353 -0.988 -1.022 ******* -1.442 0.043 2.828 2.832 2.580 2.614 ******* 2.859 2.877 3.848 3.875 3.622 3.672 ******* 3.855 3.881 3.605 3.632 3.484 3.527 -9999.00 3.575 3.881 118,446. 118,446. 118,446. 118,446. 0. 118,446. 118,446.
63 -0.336 -0.411 -0.182 -0.293 ******* -1.376 -1.280 2.312 2.323 2.167 2.190 ******* 2.851 2.746 3.255 3.293 3.122 3.161 ******* 3.944 3.683 3.238 3.267 3.116 3.148 -9999.00 3.696 3.454 118,321. 118,321. 118,321. 118,321. 0. 118,321. 118,321.
66 -0.030 -0.124 0.137 0.001 ******* -0.802 -1.010 2.401 2.413 2.280 2.303 ******* 2.702 2.688 3.358 3.388 3.249 3.277 ******* 3.723 3.630 3.358 3.386 3.246 3.277 -9999.00 3.635 3.487 118,039. 118,039. 118,039. 118,039. 0. 118,039. 118,039.
69 0.164 0.076 0.355 0.208 ******* -0.671 -0.959 2.553 2.545 2.453 2.449 ******* 2.804 2.759 3.552 3.553 3.459 3.458 ******* 3.864 3.723 3.548 3.553 3.441 3.452 -9999.00 3.805 3.597 113,583. 113,583. 113,583. 113,583. 0. 113,583. 113,583.
72 0.271 0.195 0.479 0.325 ******* -0.749 -1.024 2.680 2.640 2.580 2.554 ******* 2.909 2.843 3.690 3.659 3.595 3.573 ******* 3.959 3.809 3.680 3.654 3.563 3.558 -9999.00 3.888 3.668 115,409. 115,409. 115,409. 115,409. 0. 115,409. 115,409.