MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of PSLR (SLP millibars ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.122 0.008 -0.002 -0.022 0.173 1.289 1.203 1.200 1.088 0.990 2.622 2.546 2.226 2.395 2.318 2.619 2.546 2.226 2.395 2.312 26,023. 26,023. 16,761. 26,023. 26,023.
3 0.155 -0.009 -0.151 0.055 0.454 1.166 1.179 1.164 1.303 1.510 2.406 2.414 1.977 2.504 2.617 2.401 2.414 1.971 2.504 2.578 25,268. 25,268. 16,211. 25,268. 25,268.
6 -0.042 -0.175 -0.220 0.379 0.878 1.238 1.156 1.158 1.393 1.529 2.503 2.443 2.451 2.649 2.731 2.503 2.437 2.441 2.622 2.585 23,840. 23,840. 23,840. 23,840. 23,840.
9 0.341 0.053 -0.075 0.356 1.615 1.376 1.318 1.295 1.456 1.898 2.606 2.553 2.533 2.684 3.037 2.584 2.553 2.532 2.660 2.572 23,324. 23,324. 23,324. 23,324. 23,324.
12 0.730 0.402 0.253 0.370 1.209 1.484 1.313 1.254 1.532 1.635 2.592 2.445 2.390 2.606 2.695 2.487 2.412 2.377 2.580 2.408 23,786. 23,786. 23,786. 23,786. 23,786.
15 0.402 0.064 -0.095 0.249 1.285 1.475 1.358 1.325 1.541 1.707 2.612 2.498 2.466 2.642 2.800 2.581 2.497 2.464 2.630 2.488 25,380. 25,380. 25,380. 25,380. 25,380.
18 -0.600 -0.850 -0.944 -0.483 0.440 1.631 1.626 1.627 1.605 1.392 2.692 2.673 2.673 2.676 2.499 2.625 2.534 2.501 2.632 2.460 26,213. 26,213. 26,213. 26,213. 26,213.
21 -0.724 -0.927 -0.994 -0.565 0.476 1.781 1.785 1.774 1.718 1.450 2.962 2.957 2.944 2.920 2.718 2.872 2.808 2.771 2.865 2.676 25,942. 25,942. 25,942. 25,942. 25,942.
24 -0.230 -0.441 -0.541 -0.539 0.027 1.749 1.718 1.709 1.794 1.510 2.913 2.886 2.875 2.938 2.699 2.904 2.852 2.824 2.888 2.699 25,606. 25,606. 25,606. 25,606. 25,606.
27 -0.108 -0.370 -0.498 -0.262 0.296 1.854 1.812 1.797 1.859 1.561 2.954 2.913 2.900 2.965 2.709 2.952 2.889 2.857 2.953 2.693 24,747. 24,747. 24,747. 24,747. 24,747.
30 -0.121 -0.408 -0.567 0.017 0.850 1.986 1.916 1.892 1.979 1.740 3.162 3.105 3.088 3.150 2.965 3.160 3.078 3.036 3.150 2.840 23,987. 23,987. 23,987. 23,987. 23,987.
33 0.259 -0.087 -0.262 -0.057 1.275 2.148 2.027 1.977 2.119 2.019 3.370 3.260 3.215 3.322 3.280 3.360 3.259 3.204 3.322 3.022 23,424. 23,424. 23,424. 23,424. 23,424.
36 0.291 -0.071 -0.252 -0.353 0.758 2.331 2.204 2.149 2.289 1.930 3.455 3.341 3.285 3.393 3.101 3.443 3.340 3.275 3.374 3.007 23,884. 23,884. 23,884. 23,884. 23,884.
39 0.318 -0.023 -0.194 -0.219 0.305 2.415 2.287 2.229 2.322 1.925 3.572 3.453 3.399 3.447 3.127 3.558 3.453 3.394 3.440 3.113 25,389. 25,389. 25,389. 25,389. 25,389.
42 -0.598 -0.882 -0.989 -0.627 0.358 2.472 2.433 2.406 2.354 2.045 3.558 3.539 3.519 3.432 3.171 3.507 3.428 3.377 3.375 3.150 26,093. 26,093. 26,093. 26,093. 26,093.
45 -0.655 -0.883 -0.968 -0.791 0.944 2.516 2.490 2.469 2.401 2.280 3.750 3.746 3.730 3.635 3.518 3.693 3.640 3.602 3.548 3.389 25,826. 25,826. 25,826. 25,826. 25,826.
48 -0.110 -0.344 -0.456 -0.871 0.248 2.486 2.457 2.437 2.453 2.179 3.699 3.678 3.659 3.657 3.366 3.697 3.662 3.630 3.552 3.357 25,469. 25,469. 25,469. 25,469. 25,469.
51 -0.018 -0.277 ******* -0.218 0.316 2.537 2.475 ******* 2.464 2.217 3.686 3.637 ******* 3.606 3.343 3.686 3.626 -9999.00 3.600 3.328 25,044. 25,044. 0. 25,044. 25,044.
54 -0.011 -0.293 ******* -0.138 0.920 2.657 2.568 ******* 2.592 2.390 3.893 3.815 ******* 3.806 3.618 3.893 3.804 -9999.00 3.804 3.499 24,259. 24,259. 0. 24,259. 24,259.
57 0.468 0.116 ******* 0.001 1.607 2.799 2.679 ******* 2.689 2.677 4.059 3.932 ******* 3.946 3.956 4.032 3.930 -9999.00 3.947 3.616 23,646. 23,646. 0. 23,646. 23,646.
60 0.639 0.274 ******* -0.277 0.953 2.934 2.802 ******* 2.765 2.557 4.108 3.971 ******* 3.934 3.764 4.058 3.961 -9999.00 3.924 3.641 24,094. 24,094. 0. 24,094. 24,094.
63 0.581 0.236 ******* -0.045 0.777 2.990 2.876 ******* 2.804 2.615 4.175 4.053 ******* 3.972 3.873 4.134 4.046 -9999.00 3.972 3.794 25,678. 25,678. 0. 25,678. 25,678.
66 -0.442 -0.728 ******* -0.635 1.039 2.951 2.924 ******* 2.812 2.755 4.095 4.079 ******* 3.961 3.936 4.072 4.014 -9999.00 3.910 3.797 26,390. 26,390. 0. 26,390. 26,390.
69 -0.330 -0.558 ******* -0.752 1.172 2.957 2.943 ******* 2.853 2.840 4.230 4.210 ******* 4.153 4.122 4.218 4.173 -9999.00 4.085 3.952 26,110. 26,110. 0. 26,110. 26,110.
72 0.290 0.047 ******* -0.628 0.550 3.027 3.010 ******* 2.953 2.798 4.313 4.268 ******* 4.291 4.045 4.304 4.268 -9999.00 4.244 4.008 25,640. 25,640. 0. 25,640. 25,640.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of PSLR (SLP millibars ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 1.498 1.271 0.970 0.197 0.740 1.740 1.620 1.469 1.132 1.091 3.062 2.958 2.520 2.299 2.261 2.671 2.672 2.325 2.291 2.136 23,750. 23,750. 15,203. 23,750. 23,750.
3 1.142 0.996 0.734 -0.020 0.879 1.510 1.451 1.292 1.391 1.637 2.662 2.622 2.122 2.543 2.756 2.405 2.425 1.992 2.543 2.612 25,319. 25,319. 16,335. 25,319. 25,319.
6 -0.033 -0.009 -0.012 -0.272 0.559 1.261 1.199 1.179 1.405 1.466 2.337 2.296 2.281 2.456 2.478 2.337 2.296 2.281 2.441 2.415 25,279. 25,279. 25,279. 25,279. 25,279.
9 -0.378 -0.426 -0.442 -0.813 0.780 1.443 1.409 1.385 1.615 1.483 2.676 2.650 2.628 2.802 2.700 2.649 2.616 2.591 2.682 2.585 25,365. 25,365. 25,365. 25,365. 25,365.
12 0.270 0.239 0.185 -0.750 -0.020 1.470 1.441 1.407 1.617 1.343 2.640 2.613 2.584 2.745 2.523 2.626 2.602 2.577 2.640 2.523 25,025. 25,025. 25,025. 25,025. 25,025.
15 0.422 0.271 0.169 -0.086 0.620 1.554 1.492 1.449 1.545 1.470 2.687 2.629 2.594 2.677 2.604 2.654 2.615 2.589 2.675 2.529 24,260. 24,260. 24,260. 24,260. 24,260.
18 0.547 0.346 0.198 0.042 0.652 1.723 1.627 1.565 1.676 1.496 2.892 2.807 2.756 2.845 2.695 2.840 2.786 2.749 2.845 2.615 23,550. 23,550. 23,550. 23,550. 23,550.
21 0.792 0.534 0.366 0.087 1.116 1.971 1.842 1.759 1.818 1.782 3.148 3.038 2.965 2.991 2.979 3.047 2.991 2.942 2.990 2.762 22,781. 22,781. 22,781. 22,781. 22,781.
24 0.972 0.674 0.499 -0.105 0.722 2.168 2.015 1.918 1.922 1.683 3.231 3.087 2.997 2.973 2.775 3.081 3.012 2.955 2.971 2.680 23,226. 23,226. 23,226. 23,226. 23,226.
27 0.706 0.407 0.238 -0.180 0.494 2.141 2.019 1.939 1.961 1.633 3.244 3.127 3.051 3.045 2.795 3.166 3.100 3.041 3.039 2.751 24,793. 24,793. 24,793. 24,793. 24,793.
30 -0.287 -0.511 -0.613 -0.666 0.613 2.070 2.046 2.016 2.008 1.667 3.062 3.036 3.011 3.005 2.714 3.049 2.992 2.948 2.931 2.644 25,385. 25,385. 25,385. 25,385. 25,385.
33 -0.378 -0.571 -0.644 -0.956 1.030 2.113 2.100 2.078 2.125 1.877 3.267 3.255 3.232 3.283 3.081 3.245 3.205 3.167 3.140 2.904 25,121. 25,121. 25,121. 25,121. 25,121.
36 0.173 -0.026 -0.126 -0.762 0.631 2.148 2.124 2.097 2.136 1.807 3.300 3.269 3.243 3.291 2.984 3.295 3.269 3.240 3.202 2.917 24,780. 24,780. 24,780. 24,780. 24,780.
39 0.594 0.364 0.225 -0.050 0.534 2.304 2.212 2.161 2.154 1.805 3.396 3.311 3.266 3.269 2.924 3.344 3.291 3.258 3.269 2.875 23,938. 23,938. 23,938. 23,938. 23,938.
42 0.620 0.346 0.176 0.104 1.118 2.458 2.337 2.270 2.354 2.108 3.600 3.483 3.423 3.498 3.279 3.546 3.466 3.419 3.496 3.082 23,220. 23,220. 23,220. 23,220. 23,220.
45 0.870 0.549 0.368 0.080 1.733 2.658 2.506 2.421 2.491 2.493 3.822 3.664 3.589 3.646 3.684 3.721 3.623 3.570 3.646 3.251 22,588. 22,588. 22,588. 22,588. 22,588.
48 0.869 0.535 0.348 -0.309 1.226 2.809 2.644 2.557 2.640 2.377 3.915 3.748 3.670 3.726 3.504 3.818 3.710 3.654 3.713 3.283 22,924. 22,924. 22,924. 22,924. 22,924.
51 0.669 0.347 ******* -0.283 1.053 2.848 2.703 ******* 2.691 2.396 4.018 3.870 ******* 3.862 3.570 3.961 3.854 -9999.00 3.851 3.411 25,024. 25,024. 0. 25,024. 25,024.
54 -0.338 -0.585 ******* -0.795 1.075 2.755 2.697 ******* 2.740 2.437 3.916 3.873 ******* 3.889 3.500 3.902 3.829 -9999.00 3.807 3.331 25,792. 25,792. 0. 25,792. 25,792.
57 -0.229 -0.443 ******* -0.741 1.429 2.798 2.750 ******* 2.805 2.636 4.100 4.068 ******* 4.148 3.843 4.094 4.044 -9999.00 4.081 3.568 25,519. 25,519. 0. 25,519. 25,519.
60 0.279 0.065 ******* -0.873 0.775 2.878 2.832 ******* 2.897 2.526 4.180 4.133 ******* 4.247 3.699 4.171 4.132 -9999.00 4.157 3.617 25,199. 25,199. 0. 25,199. 25,199.
63 0.284 0.050 ******* -0.355 0.835 2.972 2.900 ******* 2.918 2.617 4.237 4.178 ******* 4.176 3.793 4.228 4.177 -9999.00 4.161 3.700 24,351. 24,351. 0. 24,351. 24,351.
66 0.196 -0.071 ******* -0.207 1.757 3.117 3.027 ******* 3.066 3.018 4.426 4.343 ******* 4.345 4.269 4.422 4.342 -9999.00 4.340 3.890 23,631. 23,631. 0. 23,631. 23,631.
69 0.730 0.406 ******* -0.155 2.088 3.303 3.192 ******* 3.115 3.253 4.589 4.472 ******* 4.380 4.516 4.531 4.454 -9999.00 4.377 4.005 23,092. 23,092. 0. 23,092. 23,092.
72 1.003 0.659 ******* -0.231 1.742 3.446 3.327 ******* 3.179 3.166 4.717 4.584 ******* 4.388 4.397 4.609 4.536 -9999.00 4.382 4.037 23,434. 23,434. 0. 23,434. 23,434.