MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 0.114 0.041 -0.075 -1.879 0.050 2.013 2.024 2.011 2.872 2.648 2.949 2.969 2.791 3.836 3.619 2.947 2.968 2.790 3.344 3.618 125,287. 125,287. 80,900. 125,287. 125,287.
3 0.517 0.595 0.754 -1.563 -1.647 2.008 1.947 1.953 2.736 2.763 2.933 2.887 2.745 3.800 3.678 2.887 2.825 2.639 3.463 3.289 126,106. 126,106. 81,442. 126,106. 126,106.
6 0.691 0.827 0.968 -0.948 -1.345 2.178 2.130 2.111 2.480 2.670 3.160 3.135 3.131 3.448 3.585 3.084 3.024 2.977 3.315 3.324 123,878. 123,878. 123,878. 123,878. 123,878.
9 0.787 0.974 1.155 -0.826 -1.223 2.322 2.287 2.276 2.526 2.701 3.357 3.351 3.360 3.540 3.636 3.263 3.207 3.155 3.442 3.424 120,191. 120,191. 120,191. 120,191. 120,191.
12 0.830 1.042 1.242 -0.663 -1.244 2.419 2.388 2.382 2.537 2.756 3.458 3.460 3.480 3.549 3.687 3.357 3.300 3.252 3.486 3.471 122,921. 122,921. 122,921. 122,921. 122,921.
15 0.558 0.750 0.961 -0.556 -0.550 2.378 2.321 2.293 2.509 2.748 3.417 3.384 3.374 3.540 3.725 3.371 3.300 3.234 3.496 3.685 124,012. 124,012. 124,012. 124,012. 124,012.
18 -0.476 -0.158 0.074 -0.732 1.874 2.279 2.153 2.085 2.551 3.109 3.269 3.146 3.067 3.550 4.130 3.234 3.142 3.066 3.474 3.681 125,988. 125,988. 125,988. 125,988. 125,988.
21 -0.914 -0.472 -0.231 -0.948 1.877 2.558 2.386 2.308 2.774 3.240 3.562 3.414 3.339 3.788 4.276 3.443 3.381 3.331 3.668 3.842 126,216. 126,216. 126,216. 126,216. 126,216.
24 -1.053 -0.674 -0.477 -1.780 -0.098 2.497 2.251 2.136 2.911 2.718 3.463 3.248 3.143 3.892 3.685 3.299 3.177 3.107 3.461 3.683 125,115. 125,115. 125,115. 125,115. 125,115.
27 -0.047 0.095 0.272 -1.521 -1.386 2.104 1.972 1.910 2.754 2.698 3.029 2.913 2.856 3.839 3.612 3.028 2.911 2.843 3.525 3.336 125,594. 125,594. 125,594. 125,594. 125,594.
30 0.247 0.398 0.605 -0.881 -1.106 2.217 2.121 2.080 2.511 2.634 3.177 3.100 3.074 3.509 3.559 3.168 3.074 3.014 3.397 3.382 125,283. 125,283. 125,283. 125,283. 125,283.
33 0.421 0.597 0.809 -0.753 -1.070 2.355 2.273 2.239 2.588 2.695 3.365 3.301 3.285 3.621 3.641 3.339 3.247 3.184 3.542 3.480 120,728. 120,728. 120,728. 120,728. 120,728.
36 0.506 0.707 0.922 -0.643 -1.125 2.473 2.388 2.360 2.646 2.763 3.494 3.426 3.417 3.693 3.708 3.457 3.352 3.290 3.637 3.533 123,397. 123,397. 123,397. 123,397. 123,397.
39 0.277 0.465 0.692 -0.590 -0.496 2.486 2.376 2.335 2.650 2.798 3.528 3.434 3.398 3.718 3.782 3.517 3.402 3.327 3.671 3.749 123,467. 123,467. 123,467. 123,467. 123,467.
42 -0.754 -0.405 -0.148 -0.778 2.029 2.453 2.286 2.202 2.670 3.283 3.478 3.311 3.214 3.711 4.334 3.395 3.286 3.211 3.628 3.830 125,206. 125,206. 125,206. 125,206. 125,206.
45 -1.162 -0.669 -0.406 -1.026 2.041 2.797 2.592 2.508 2.898 3.426 3.831 3.652 3.568 3.945 4.511 3.651 3.591 3.545 3.809 4.023 125,396. 125,396. 125,396. 125,396. 125,396.
48 -1.261 -0.859 -0.639 -1.902 0.024 2.727 2.454 2.335 3.075 2.810 3.724 3.477 3.365 4.086 3.802 3.504 3.369 3.304 3.616 3.802 124,125. 124,125. 124,125. 124,125. 124,125.
51 -0.245 -0.079 ******* -1.534 -1.335 2.244 2.092 ******* 2.862 2.724 3.182 3.045 ******* 3.971 3.653 3.172 3.044 -9999.00 3.663 3.400 125,730. 125,730. 0. 125,730. 125,730.
54 0.051 0.220 ******* -0.959 -1.093 2.336 2.214 ******* 2.657 2.673 3.296 3.187 ******* 3.667 3.606 3.296 3.179 -9999.00 3.540 3.437 125,286. 125,286. 0. 125,286. 125,286.
57 0.222 0.420 ******* -0.855 -1.040 2.477 2.373 ******* 2.757 2.739 3.481 3.386 ******* 3.810 3.692 3.474 3.360 -9999.00 3.712 3.542 120,828. 120,828. 0. 120,828. 120,828.
60 0.319 0.542 ******* -0.771 -1.112 2.590 2.489 ******* 2.809 2.818 3.606 3.512 ******* 3.871 3.768 3.592 3.470 -9999.00 3.794 3.600 123,154. 123,154. 0. 123,154. 123,154.
63 0.124 0.331 ******* -0.692 -0.475 2.595 2.481 ******* 2.777 2.857 3.641 3.533 ******* 3.853 3.848 3.639 3.517 -9999.00 3.791 3.818 124,282. 124,282. 0. 124,282. 124,282.
66 -0.851 -0.475 ******* -0.926 2.092 2.550 2.376 ******* 2.780 3.389 3.583 3.404 ******* 3.826 4.459 3.481 3.371 -9999.00 3.712 3.938 125,752. 125,752. 0. 125,752. 125,752.
69 -1.182 -0.680 ******* -1.093 2.085 2.882 2.669 ******* 3.016 3.540 3.924 3.740 ******* 4.062 4.660 3.741 3.678 -9999.00 3.912 4.168 123,932. 123,932. 0. 123,932. 123,932.
72 -1.267 -0.831 ******* -1.869 0.120 2.818 2.533 ******* 3.155 2.916 3.840 3.573 ******* 4.175 3.937 3.624 3.475 -9999.00 3.733 3.936 122,317. 122,317. 0. 122,317. 122,317.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.728 -0.777 -0.979 -0.425 -1.745 2.279 2.303 2.471 2.464 2.923 3.284 3.302 3.334 3.455 3.923 3.202 3.209 3.187 3.429 3.513 121,622. 121,622. 78,328. 121,622. 121,622.
3 -0.780 -0.582 -0.428 -0.068 -1.002 2.388 2.290 2.287 2.440 2.748 3.395 3.297 3.116 3.480 3.721 3.304 3.246 3.086 3.479 3.584 122,472. 122,472. 78,727. 122,472. 122,472.
6 -1.212 -0.997 -0.875 -0.165 1.538 2.401 2.271 2.172 2.395 2.877 3.414 3.272 3.154 3.387 3.875 3.192 3.116 3.031 3.383 3.556 121,802. 121,802. 121,802. 121,802. 121,802.
9 -1.265 -1.026 -0.879 -0.440 1.639 2.620 2.471 2.390 2.592 3.049 3.605 3.475 3.394 3.570 4.065 3.376 3.320 3.278 3.543 3.720 123,593. 123,593. 123,593. 123,593. 123,593.
12 -1.380 -1.173 -1.043 -1.056 -0.354 2.546 2.359 2.257 2.506 2.730 3.500 3.340 3.244 3.453 3.678 3.217 3.127 3.072 3.287 3.661 122,601. 122,601. 122,601. 122,601. 122,601.
15 -0.501 -0.447 -0.300 -1.202 -1.587 2.070 1.945 1.853 2.586 2.757 2.987 2.879 2.783 3.614 3.682 2.945 2.844 2.767 3.408 3.323 123,009. 123,009. 123,009. 123,009. 123,009.
18 -0.235 -0.127 0.060 -0.592 -1.298 2.148 2.036 1.948 2.401 2.660 3.080 2.981 2.895 3.366 3.588 3.071 2.978 2.894 3.314 3.345 122,630. 122,630. 122,630. 122,630. 122,630.
21 -0.048 0.098 0.291 -0.449 -1.201 2.254 2.149 2.069 2.466 2.688 3.227 3.136 3.060 3.480 3.635 3.227 3.134 3.046 3.451 3.431 117,375. 117,375. 117,375. 117,375. 117,375.
24 0.078 0.253 0.452 -0.552 -1.235 2.347 2.243 2.171 2.580 2.747 3.324 3.233 3.170 3.581 3.688 3.323 3.224 3.138 3.538 3.475 119,966. 119,966. 119,966. 119,966. 119,966.
27 -0.134 0.068 0.272 -0.300 -0.629 2.401 2.274 2.189 2.524 2.733 3.411 3.298 3.209 3.557 3.704 3.409 3.297 3.198 3.545 3.650 120,566. 120,566. 120,566. 120,566. 120,566.
30 -1.053 -0.731 -0.503 -0.530 1.823 2.478 2.295 2.178 2.568 3.113 3.499 3.311 3.181 3.581 4.136 3.337 3.229 3.141 3.542 3.713 121,675. 121,675. 121,675. 121,675. 121,675.
33 -1.342 -0.942 -0.702 -0.774 1.799 2.782 2.581 2.486 2.771 3.254 3.797 3.620 3.527 3.786 4.302 3.552 3.495 3.456 3.706 3.908 121,910. 121,910. 121,910. 121,910. 121,910.
36 -1.411 -1.080 -0.884 -1.357 -0.155 2.692 2.449 2.327 2.702 2.776 3.668 3.454 3.341 3.666 3.741 3.386 3.281 3.222 3.405 3.738 120,596. 120,596. 120,596. 120,596. 120,596.
39 -0.404 -0.271 -0.082 -1.364 -1.433 2.182 2.032 1.959 2.740 2.726 3.104 2.969 2.895 3.814 3.652 3.078 2.956 2.894 3.562 3.359 121,554. 121,554. 121,554. 121,554. 121,554.
42 -0.122 0.034 0.246 -0.760 -1.152 2.277 2.148 2.089 2.547 2.656 3.213 3.097 3.045 3.535 3.585 3.211 3.097 3.035 3.452 3.395 121,172. 121,172. 121,172. 121,172. 121,172.
45 0.049 0.240 0.453 -0.652 -1.086 2.407 2.288 2.236 2.650 2.703 3.384 3.275 3.231 3.677 3.652 3.384 3.266 3.199 3.618 3.487 116,646. 116,646. 116,646. 116,646. 116,646.
48 0.172 0.376 0.596 -0.746 -1.145 2.518 2.402 2.358 2.768 2.771 3.516 3.410 3.375 3.802 3.725 3.512 3.389 3.322 3.728 3.544 119,065. 119,065. 119,065. 119,065. 119,065.
51 -0.055 0.177 ******* -0.513 -0.544 2.567 2.423 ******* 2.704 2.790 3.597 3.462 ******* 3.773 3.773 3.597 3.458 -9999.00 3.738 3.734 120,956. 120,956. 0. 120,956. 120,956.
54 -0.997 -0.624 ******* -0.712 2.020 2.564 2.380 ******* 2.711 3.332 3.603 3.412 ******* 3.752 4.393 3.462 3.355 -9999.00 3.684 3.901 122,790. 122,790. 0. 122,790. 122,790.
57 -1.286 -0.843 ******* -0.875 2.085 2.899 2.700 ******* 2.913 3.481 3.946 3.770 ******* 3.954 4.579 3.731 3.675 -9999.00 3.856 4.078 122,872. 122,872. 0. 122,872. 122,872.
60 -1.350 -0.995 ******* -1.448 0.052 2.830 2.580 ******* 2.870 2.879 3.845 3.617 ******* 3.864 3.878 3.600 3.477 -9999.00 3.583 3.878 121,853. 121,853. 0. 121,853. 121,853.
63 -0.327 -0.177 ******* -1.427 -1.285 2.313 2.168 ******* 2.884 2.747 3.252 3.118 ******* 3.983 3.681 3.235 3.113 -9999.00 3.719 3.449 122,311. 122,311. 0. 122,311. 122,311.
66 -0.018 0.146 ******* -0.824 -1.012 2.413 2.292 ******* 2.721 2.694 3.367 3.259 ******* 3.740 3.634 3.367 3.256 -9999.00 3.648 3.490 121,899. 121,899. 0. 121,899. 121,899.
69 0.181 0.370 ******* -0.692 -0.956 2.566 2.468 ******* 2.824 2.769 3.566 3.475 ******* 3.884 3.733 3.561 3.455 -9999.00 3.822 3.608 117,547. 117,547. 0. 117,547. 117,547.
72 0.297 0.505 ******* -0.762 -1.013 2.696 2.600 ******* 2.932 2.853 3.708 3.617 ******* 3.986 3.821 3.696 3.581 -9999.00 3.913 3.684 119,915. 119,915. 0. 119,915. 119,915.