MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of WDIR (Wind Direction Degrees ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 7.402 7.438 10.058 7.445 6.960 61.353 61.343 64.270 61.364 63.990 79.002 79.004 81.835 79.031 81.177 78.654 78.654 81.215 78.680 80.879 115,545. 115,545. 75,292. 115,545. 115,545.
3 12.478 8.841 7.897 12.534 6.254 66.565 62.973 62.480 67.196 66.726 83.762 80.753 80.599 84.242 83.584 82.827 80.268 80.212 83.305 83.350 116,794. 116,794. 75,923. 116,794. 116,794.
6 15.597 12.205 9.976 15.391 7.266 70.028 65.594 63.629 70.416 69.385 87.080 83.224 81.481 87.292 86.322 85.672 82.324 80.869 85.925 86.016 112,311. 112,311. 112,311. 112,311. 112,311.
9 15.829 12.091 9.343 15.647 8.632 72.280 67.837 65.313 72.692 71.362 89.115 85.321 83.171 89.341 88.235 87.698 84.461 82.645 87.961 87.813 108,657. 108,657. 108,657. 108,657. 108,657.
12 15.417 11.746 9.056 15.824 10.152 73.189 68.490 65.745 73.171 71.454 89.987 85.993 83.672 89.791 88.253 88.657 85.188 83.181 88.387 87.667 112,018. 112,018. 112,018. 112,018. 112,018.
15 14.956 11.180 9.077 15.893 10.213 73.722 69.238 66.457 73.165 71.738 90.469 86.701 84.405 89.732 88.648 89.225 85.978 83.916 88.314 88.058 114,937. 114,937. 114,937. 114,937. 114,937.
18 13.126 9.973 7.410 13.677 9.071 70.504 66.644 63.477 69.629 68.610 87.619 84.588 81.810 86.830 86.017 86.631 83.998 81.474 85.746 85.538 115,434. 115,434. 115,434. 115,434. 115,434.
21 10.403 7.760 6.191 9.985 6.837 65.993 61.849 59.370 65.854 65.213 83.567 79.998 77.892 83.322 82.803 82.917 79.621 77.646 82.722 82.521 116,844. 116,844. 116,844. 116,844. 116,844.
24 8.561 6.584 5.833 8.935 6.288 65.522 62.019 60.370 65.765 64.761 83.054 80.195 78.951 83.112 82.064 82.612 79.924 78.736 82.631 81.823 115,596. 115,596. 115,596. 115,596. 115,596.
27 9.884 7.879 7.040 10.504 6.181 69.527 66.160 64.422 69.206 67.911 86.677 83.795 82.357 86.178 84.886 86.112 83.424 82.056 85.536 84.661 116,416. 116,416. 116,416. 116,416. 116,416.
30 12.726 10.263 8.229 13.383 8.409 72.131 68.193 65.991 72.025 70.351 88.939 85.636 83.802 88.613 87.176 88.024 85.020 83.398 87.597 86.770 113,628. 113,628. 113,628. 113,628. 113,628.
33 13.422 10.814 8.749 14.194 9.574 74.238 70.161 67.799 73.927 72.601 90.822 87.408 85.541 90.360 89.276 89.825 86.737 85.093 89.239 88.761 109,071. 109,071. 109,071. 109,071. 109,071.
36 13.533 10.209 8.443 14.554 10.175 74.848 70.853 68.211 74.452 72.575 91.392 88.180 85.950 90.815 89.242 90.384 87.588 85.534 89.642 88.660 112,394. 112,394. 112,394. 112,394. 112,394.
39 14.221 11.030 8.646 15.420 10.264 75.217 71.289 68.944 74.755 72.753 91.635 88.583 86.720 91.063 89.478 90.525 87.894 86.288 89.749 88.887 114,442. 114,442. 114,442. 114,442. 114,442.
42 12.197 8.790 6.887 13.138 9.017 72.519 69.020 66.151 71.779 70.279 89.419 86.803 84.375 88.713 87.453 88.584 86.357 84.094 87.735 86.987 114,728. 114,728. 114,728. 114,728. 114,728.
45 8.424 6.473 5.593 8.778 6.780 68.405 64.405 62.317 67.783 67.217 85.731 82.403 80.677 84.927 84.418 85.317 82.149 80.483 84.472 84.146 116,078. 116,078. 116,078. 116,078. 116,078.
48 7.295 5.824 5.532 7.927 6.007 67.889 64.807 63.566 67.463 66.938 85.222 82.789 82.018 84.500 83.941 84.909 82.584 81.831 84.127 83.726 114,609. 114,609. 114,609. 114,609. 114,609.
51 8.761 6.925 ******* 10.126 5.848 71.538 68.408 ******* 70.876 70.057 88.447 85.948 ******* 87.569 86.931 88.012 85.669 -9999.00 86.982 86.735 116,265. 116,265. 0. 116,265. 116,265.
54 12.120 9.470 ******* 12.709 7.427 73.842 70.148 ******* 73.680 71.937 90.320 87.345 ******* 90.033 88.622 89.503 86.830 -9999.00 89.132 88.311 113,314. 113,314. 0. 113,314. 113,314.
57 12.753 9.486 ******* 12.713 7.595 75.586 71.488 ******* 75.487 73.898 91.984 88.569 ******* 91.666 90.340 91.096 88.060 -9999.00 90.780 90.020 108,819. 108,819. 0. 108,819. 108,819.
60 12.710 9.550 ******* 12.919 8.297 76.119 72.107 ******* 76.002 73.861 92.420 89.231 ******* 92.164 90.277 91.543 88.719 -9999.00 91.254 89.895 111,783. 111,783. 0. 111,783. 111,783.
63 13.513 10.045 ******* 14.008 8.241 76.227 72.484 ******* 75.761 73.998 92.458 89.640 ******* 91.918 90.494 91.466 89.076 -9999.00 90.845 90.119 114,746. 114,746. 0. 114,746. 114,746.
66 11.557 8.051 ******* 12.092 7.817 73.272 70.041 ******* 72.487 71.452 90.057 87.664 ******* 89.359 88.528 89.313 87.294 -9999.00 88.537 88.182 114,854. 114,854. 0. 114,854. 114,854.
69 7.596 5.457 ******* 7.721 5.529 69.432 65.744 ******* 69.100 68.286 86.630 83.563 ******* 86.208 85.427 86.297 83.385 -9999.00 85.862 85.248 114,995. 114,995. 0. 114,995. 114,995.
72 6.284 5.151 ******* 7.037 4.384 69.519 66.746 ******* 69.374 68.256 86.744 84.610 ******* 86.344 85.173 86.516 84.453 -9999.00 86.058 85.061 113,297. 113,297. 0. 113,297. 113,297.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of WDIR (Wind Direction Degrees ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 11.278 11.251 12.513 11.292 9.937 69.625 69.632 71.056 69.643 72.388 86.853 86.869 88.080 86.878 89.023 86.118 86.138 87.187 86.142 88.467 110,689. 110,689. 71,942. 110,689. 110,689.
3 17.885 12.660 9.387 15.478 10.056 71.978 67.624 66.503 72.025 72.336 88.867 85.353 84.492 88.678 89.179 87.049 84.409 83.970 87.318 88.610 113,323. 113,323. 73,638. 113,323. 113,323.
6 15.016 10.495 7.744 14.510 8.140 69.661 64.918 62.376 68.871 68.405 86.974 83.132 80.773 86.072 85.871 85.668 82.468 80.401 84.840 85.484 111,691. 111,691. 111,691. 111,691. 111,691.
9 10.727 7.543 5.608 11.270 7.092 65.239 60.396 57.810 65.494 64.565 82.959 78.680 76.438 82.983 82.176 82.263 78.318 76.232 82.214 81.869 114,598. 114,598. 114,598. 114,598. 114,598.
12 8.817 6.681 5.338 9.613 6.216 64.475 60.672 59.055 65.155 64.311 82.226 79.095 77.833 82.504 81.668 81.752 78.812 77.650 81.943 81.431 113,415. 113,415. 113,415. 113,415. 113,415.
15 10.900 8.691 7.038 10.774 5.653 68.290 64.504 62.578 68.345 67.761 85.597 82.331 80.723 85.428 84.688 84.901 81.872 80.416 84.746 84.500 114,115. 114,115. 114,115. 114,115. 114,115.
18 14.533 11.577 9.156 14.128 8.158 71.186 66.775 64.243 71.015 69.994 88.160 84.333 82.172 87.824 86.920 86.955 83.535 81.660 86.680 86.536 111,368. 111,368. 111,368. 111,368. 111,368.
21 15.246 12.271 9.653 14.761 9.718 73.615 68.869 65.994 73.247 72.273 90.380 86.295 83.834 89.709 89.072 89.085 85.419 83.276 88.487 88.541 106,196. 106,196. 106,196. 106,196. 106,196.
24 14.611 11.382 9.131 15.046 9.746 74.450 69.693 66.735 73.882 72.373 91.064 87.197 84.547 90.307 89.174 89.885 86.451 84.052 89.046 88.640 109,430. 109,430. 109,430. 109,430. 109,430.
27 15.020 11.606 9.243 15.669 10.620 74.592 70.394 67.838 73.800 72.446 91.205 87.822 85.699 90.246 89.261 89.961 87.052 85.199 88.876 88.627 111,876. 111,876. 111,876. 111,876. 111,876.
30 12.924 9.076 6.838 13.498 9.447 71.906 67.976 65.075 70.954 69.752 88.897 85.870 83.399 88.000 87.067 87.953 85.390 83.118 86.959 86.553 111,637. 111,637. 111,637. 111,637. 111,637.
33 9.769 7.074 5.472 9.724 6.921 67.386 63.456 61.202 66.945 66.598 84.838 81.561 79.642 84.291 83.951 84.274 81.254 79.454 83.729 83.666 112,999. 112,999. 112,999. 112,999. 112,999.
36 8.343 6.354 5.572 8.617 5.852 67.042 63.739 62.325 66.586 66.374 84.542 81.897 80.879 83.848 83.517 84.130 81.651 80.687 83.404 83.312 111,471. 111,471. 111,471. 111,471. 111,471.
39 9.893 7.888 6.892 10.537 6.198 71.085 67.649 65.908 70.461 69.480 88.062 85.206 83.794 87.264 86.428 87.505 84.841 83.510 86.626 86.206 112,707. 112,707. 112,707. 112,707. 112,707.
42 12.885 10.290 8.545 13.303 8.049 73.486 69.396 67.255 72.996 71.618 90.056 86.693 84.955 89.502 88.384 89.130 86.080 84.525 88.509 88.017 109,986. 109,986. 109,986. 109,986. 109,986.
45 13.583 10.884 8.966 13.793 8.983 75.264 71.008 68.617 74.982 73.454 91.714 88.158 86.171 91.287 89.972 90.703 87.484 85.703 90.239 89.523 105,582. 105,582. 105,582. 105,582. 105,582.
48 13.883 10.559 8.726 14.175 9.329 76.079 71.698 69.173 75.429 73.361 92.449 88.953 86.763 91.695 89.852 91.401 88.324 86.324 90.593 89.366 108,537. 108,537. 108,537. 108,537. 108,537.
51 14.610 10.733 ******* 15.323 9.717 75.898 72.099 ******* 75.313 73.553 92.280 89.383 ******* 91.551 89.964 91.116 88.736 -9999.00 90.260 89.439 111,851. 111,851. 0. 111,851. 111,851.
54 12.133 8.677 ******* 12.643 9.100 73.438 69.760 ******* 72.798 71.362 90.319 87.480 ******* 89.603 88.344 89.500 87.049 -9999.00 88.707 87.875 112,286. 112,286. 0. 112,286. 112,286.
57 7.800 5.983 ******* 7.976 6.994 69.354 65.529 ******* 69.198 68.414 86.580 83.464 ******* 86.348 85.478 86.228 83.249 -9999.00 85.979 85.191 113,459. 113,459. 0. 113,459. 113,459.
60 6.758 5.286 ******* 7.424 6.275 69.416 66.407 ******* 69.405 68.071 86.606 84.348 ******* 86.354 84.948 86.342 84.182 -9999.00 86.034 84.717 112,306. 112,306. 0. 112,306. 112,306.
63 8.744 6.914 ******* 9.551 6.270 73.408 70.214 ******* 72.936 71.172 90.059 87.563 ******* 89.470 87.766 89.634 87.290 -9999.00 88.959 87.542 113,232. 113,232. 0. 113,232. 113,232.
66 11.786 9.274 ******* 11.943 8.032 75.618 71.849 ******* 75.555 73.584 91.921 88.852 ******* 91.780 90.032 91.162 88.367 -9999.00 91.000 89.674 110,327. 110,327. 0. 110,327. 110,327.
69 11.368 9.328 ******* 12.085 7.577 76.897 73.130 ******* 77.113 75.164 93.104 90.075 ******* 93.122 91.358 92.407 89.592 -9999.00 92.335 91.044 105,955. 105,955. 0. 105,955. 105,955.
72 11.756 9.086 ******* 12.752 7.980 77.470 73.472 ******* 77.534 74.781 93.636 90.508 ******* 93.470 91.025 92.896 90.051 -9999.00 92.597 90.675 108,888. 108,888. 0. 108,888. 108,888.