MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of WSP1 (Lowest Sigma Wind Speed Knots ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 0.908 0.952 1.276 0.998 1.445 3.515 3.536 3.538 3.555 3.887 4.720 4.744 4.757 4.764 5.235 4.631 4.648 4.583 4.659 5.032 117,394. 117,394. 76,403. 117,394. 117,394.
3 3.538 3.461 3.351 2.414 1.550 4.790 4.700 4.532 4.145 3.768 5.954 5.909 5.812 5.350 5.009 4.789 4.789 4.748 4.775 4.763 118,360. 118,360. 76,906. 118,360. 118,360.
6 3.968 4.036 3.702 2.620 1.596 5.070 5.080 4.806 4.256 3.777 6.252 6.342 6.128 5.431 5.040 4.831 4.892 4.883 4.757 4.780 113,802. 113,802. 113,802. 113,802. 113,802.
9 4.065 4.081 3.577 2.738 1.638 5.131 5.102 4.695 4.291 3.743 6.281 6.365 6.031 5.443 5.021 4.789 4.885 4.855 4.705 4.746 110,050. 110,050. 110,050. 110,050. 110,050.
12 4.189 4.123 3.600 2.826 1.599 5.254 5.163 4.730 4.386 3.766 6.402 6.442 6.092 5.542 5.060 4.841 4.950 4.914 4.767 4.801 113,389. 113,389. 113,389. 113,389. 113,389.
15 4.453 4.279 3.699 3.044 1.606 5.449 5.290 4.804 4.517 3.779 6.618 6.588 6.200 5.679 5.079 4.896 5.010 4.976 4.794 4.818 116,323. 116,323. 116,323. 116,323. 116,323.
18 3.728 3.526 3.090 2.482 1.572 5.183 5.005 4.650 4.315 3.949 6.604 6.547 6.244 5.569 5.304 5.451 5.517 5.426 4.986 5.066 117,687. 117,687. 117,687. 117,687. 117,687.
21 2.868 2.912 2.742 1.923 1.604 4.830 4.820 4.640 4.094 4.075 6.300 6.405 6.263 5.376 5.502 5.609 5.705 5.631 5.020 5.263 119,535. 119,535. 119,535. 119,535. 119,535.
24 3.047 3.192 3.048 2.054 1.776 4.719 4.767 4.606 4.128 4.102 6.075 6.226 6.096 5.400 5.526 5.256 5.345 5.280 4.994 5.232 117,453. 117,453. 117,453. 117,453. 117,453.
27 3.926 4.001 3.701 2.637 1.860 5.173 5.204 4.933 4.366 4.015 6.412 6.541 6.322 5.596 5.351 5.069 5.174 5.125 4.936 5.018 117,989. 117,989. 117,989. 117,989. 117,989.
30 4.278 4.242 3.783 2.929 1.872 5.394 5.367 4.996 4.538 4.000 6.598 6.717 6.411 5.748 5.335 5.024 5.209 5.176 4.946 4.996 115,143. 115,143. 115,143. 115,143. 115,143.
33 4.419 4.364 3.803 3.186 1.865 5.458 5.405 4.969 4.638 3.941 6.634 6.736 6.375 5.823 5.286 4.947 5.131 5.116 4.874 4.946 110,475. 110,475. 110,475. 110,475. 110,475.
36 4.473 4.395 3.825 3.261 1.767 5.549 5.483 5.019 4.747 3.930 6.739 6.830 6.452 5.942 5.275 5.041 5.227 5.196 4.967 4.970 113,768. 113,768. 113,768. 113,768. 113,768.
39 4.651 4.466 3.866 3.432 1.804 5.697 5.559 5.060 4.852 3.954 6.913 6.934 6.528 6.053 5.297 5.115 5.304 5.261 4.986 4.980 115,814. 115,814. 115,814. 115,814. 115,814.
42 3.958 3.722 3.281 2.851 1.803 5.490 5.335 4.984 4.627 4.166 6.977 6.984 6.692 5.922 5.603 5.746 5.910 5.833 5.191 5.305 116,951. 116,951. 116,951. 116,951. 116,951.
45 3.082 3.114 2.960 2.290 1.838 5.152 5.158 4.992 4.376 4.296 6.703 6.865 6.747 5.717 5.805 5.952 6.118 6.063 5.239 5.507 118,741. 118,741. 118,741. 118,741. 118,741.
48 3.209 3.347 3.187 2.355 1.994 4.978 5.046 4.897 4.380 4.311 6.394 6.595 6.485 5.708 5.807 5.531 5.683 5.648 5.199 5.453 116,434. 116,434. 116,434. 116,434. 116,434.
51 4.037 4.103 ******* 2.885 1.949 5.368 5.407 ******* 4.612 4.163 6.666 6.828 ******* 5.899 5.587 5.305 5.458 -9999.00 5.145 5.236 117,832. 117,832. 0. 117,832. 117,832.
54 4.343 4.337 ******* 3.164 1.916 5.565 5.564 ******* 4.785 4.126 6.839 6.978 ******* 6.053 5.543 5.284 5.466 -9999.00 5.160 5.202 114,821. 114,821. 0. 114,821. 114,821.
57 4.505 4.472 ******* 3.393 1.858 5.633 5.603 ******* 4.867 4.033 6.880 7.024 ******* 6.099 5.427 5.200 5.416 -9999.00 5.068 5.098 110,213. 110,213. 0. 110,213. 110,213.
60 4.569 4.467 ******* 3.495 1.742 5.717 5.633 ******* 4.971 4.001 6.964 7.051 ******* 6.196 5.361 5.256 5.456 -9999.00 5.116 5.070 113,148. 113,148. 0. 113,148. 113,148.
63 4.717 4.527 ******* 3.607 1.719 5.818 5.701 ******* 5.045 3.984 7.068 7.135 ******* 6.280 5.337 5.264 5.515 -9999.00 5.141 5.052 116,124. 116,124. 0. 116,124. 116,124.
66 4.102 3.803 ******* 3.072 1.656 5.668 5.500 ******* 4.855 4.209 7.165 7.175 ******* 6.161 5.638 5.875 6.085 -9999.00 5.341 5.390 117,038. 117,038. 0. 117,038. 117,038.
69 3.197 3.194 ******* 2.463 1.663 5.286 5.323 ******* 4.567 4.341 6.838 7.047 ******* 5.939 5.839 6.044 6.281 -9999.00 5.404 5.598 117,610. 117,610. 0. 117,610. 117,610.
72 3.243 3.434 ******* 2.498 1.914 5.073 5.215 ******* 4.575 4.388 6.517 6.808 ******* 5.958 5.879 5.652 5.878 -9999.00 5.409 5.559 115,098. 115,098. 0. 115,098. 115,098.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of WSP1 (Lowest Sigma Wind Speed Knots ) From 2002090912 to 2003042112

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  ETA  32 km 
0 2.113 2.162 2.170 2.198 1.293 3.922 3.955 3.933 3.977 3.619 5.081 5.120 5.118 5.146 4.888 4.621 4.641 4.636 4.653 4.714 112,021. 112,021. 72,779. 112,021. 112,021.
3 4.380 4.090 3.499 2.922 1.449 5.362 5.095 4.609 4.379 3.691 6.512 6.330 5.932 5.539 4.998 4.819 4.832 4.789 4.706 4.784 114,660. 114,660. 74,492. 114,660. 114,660.
6 3.479 3.274 2.885 2.297 1.452 4.998 4.799 4.491 4.177 3.880 6.446 6.336 6.061 5.425 5.256 5.426 5.424 5.331 4.915 5.051 113,793. 113,793. 113,793. 113,793. 113,793.
9 2.337 2.381 2.206 1.700 1.443 4.533 4.479 4.280 3.967 3.968 5.981 6.045 5.856 5.230 5.385 5.505 5.556 5.425 4.946 5.188 117,204. 117,204. 117,204. 117,204. 117,204.
12 2.589 2.784 2.631 1.881 1.640 4.413 4.454 4.302 4.004 3.998 5.722 5.863 5.740 5.247 5.391 5.103 5.160 5.101 4.898 5.135 115,188. 115,188. 115,188. 115,188. 115,188.
15 3.804 3.828 3.505 2.505 1.711 5.048 5.028 4.745 4.249 3.922 6.241 6.324 6.090 5.438 5.226 4.948 5.035 4.980 4.827 4.938 115,642. 115,642. 115,642. 115,642. 115,642.
18 4.210 4.159 3.647 2.806 1.733 5.300 5.238 4.830 4.413 3.916 6.470 6.539 6.209 5.593 5.238 4.912 5.046 5.025 4.838 4.943 112,830. 112,830. 112,830. 112,830. 112,830.
21 4.419 4.284 3.684 3.077 1.744 5.423 5.308 4.830 4.522 3.864 6.580 6.623 6.226 5.687 5.192 4.875 5.050 5.019 4.782 4.890 107,540. 107,540. 107,540. 107,540. 107,540.
24 4.467 4.333 3.726 3.121 1.638 5.508 5.389 4.892 4.606 3.846 6.666 6.716 6.314 5.775 5.176 4.948 5.131 5.097 4.859 4.910 110,749. 110,749. 110,749. 110,749. 110,749.
27 4.592 4.414 3.774 3.234 1.649 5.605 5.466 4.941 4.681 3.853 6.786 6.815 6.392 5.855 5.183 4.996 5.193 5.159 4.881 4.913 113,203. 113,203. 113,203. 113,203. 113,203.
30 3.793 3.565 3.098 2.674 1.610 5.314 5.151 4.780 4.475 4.039 6.762 6.750 6.427 5.744 5.439 5.598 5.731 5.631 5.084 5.195 113,779. 113,779. 113,779. 113,779. 113,779.
33 2.854 2.875 2.704 2.121 1.655 4.939 4.925 4.764 4.234 4.173 6.450 6.569 6.448 5.548 5.650 5.784 5.906 5.854 5.126 5.402 115,562. 115,562. 115,562. 115,562. 115,562.
36 3.037 3.212 3.039 2.262 1.784 4.799 4.886 4.725 4.276 4.162 6.174 6.386 6.269 5.573 5.606 5.376 5.519 5.483 5.093 5.315 113,226. 113,226. 113,226. 113,226. 113,226.
39 4.014 4.044 3.725 2.865 1.853 5.301 5.320 5.049 4.531 4.060 6.562 6.708 6.496 5.778 5.436 5.192 5.351 5.321 5.018 5.110 114,205. 114,205. 114,205. 114,205. 114,205.
42 4.312 4.277 3.814 3.111 1.852 5.483 5.466 5.103 4.680 4.037 6.711 6.836 6.550 5.906 5.413 5.142 5.333 5.325 5.020 5.086 111,423. 111,423. 111,423. 111,423. 111,423.
45 4.471 4.380 3.806 3.346 1.844 5.552 5.495 5.051 4.769 3.968 6.753 6.860 6.500 5.979 5.336 5.061 5.279 5.270 4.955 5.007 106,911. 106,911. 106,911. 106,911. 106,911.
48 4.543 4.385 3.825 3.437 1.787 5.641 5.530 5.086 4.871 3.971 6.866 6.924 6.577 6.093 5.344 5.149 5.359 5.350 5.031 5.037 109,835. 109,835. 109,835. 109,835. 109,835.
51 4.713 4.500 ******* 3.589 1.835 5.773 5.635 ******* 4.979 4.018 7.015 7.042 ******* 6.209 5.396 5.196 5.417 -9999.00 5.067 5.075 113,167. 113,167. 0. 113,167. 113,167.
54 4.029 3.773 ******* 3.046 1.789 5.569 5.422 ******* 4.773 4.216 7.084 7.105 ******* 6.115 5.669 5.826 6.021 -9999.00 5.302 5.379 114,423. 114,423. 0. 114,423. 114,423.
57 3.134 3.136 ******* 2.400 1.715 5.251 5.253 ******* 4.499 4.308 6.858 7.004 ******* 5.908 5.834 6.100 6.262 -9999.00 5.398 5.576 116,037. 116,037. 0. 116,037. 116,037.
60 3.202 3.399 ******* 2.404 1.843 5.037 5.157 ******* 4.463 4.313 6.516 6.783 ******* 5.853 5.837 5.675 5.870 -9999.00 5.336 5.538 114,077. 114,077. 0. 114,077. 114,077.
63 4.107 4.171 ******* 2.908 1.867 5.461 5.493 ******* 4.672 4.169 6.796 6.974 ******* 6.014 5.650 5.415 5.589 -9999.00 5.264 5.333 114,746. 114,746. 0. 114,746. 114,746.
66 4.409 4.410 ******* 3.219 1.853 5.634 5.643 ******* 4.849 4.158 6.948 7.096 ******* 6.143 5.635 5.369 5.559 -9999.00 5.232 5.322 111,772. 111,772. 0. 111,772. 111,772.
69 4.530 4.486 ******* 3.438 1.820 5.668 5.637 ******* 4.927 4.045 6.929 7.070 ******* 6.179 5.468 5.244 5.464 -9999.00 5.134 5.157 107,299. 107,299. 0. 107,299. 107,299.
72 4.566 4.493 ******* 3.485 1.714 5.751 5.696 ******* 5.000 4.035 7.005 7.122 ******* 6.245 5.450 5.312 5.526 -9999.00 5.182 5.174 110,199. 110,199. 0. 110,199. 110,199.