MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of PSLR (SLP millibars ) From 2002120100 to 2003022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid 
0 0.667 0.655 0.670 0.148 1.104 1.080 1.115 1.005 1.914 1.869 2.003 1.747 1.794 1.750 1.888 1.741 10,457. 10,457. 7,502. 10,457.
3 0.506 0.332 0.319 -0.079 1.078 1.059 1.117 1.255 1.662 1.631 1.771 1.857 1.583 1.597 1.742 1.855 10,134. 10,134. 7,238. 10,134.
6 0.032 -0.061 -0.118 0.215 1.219 1.104 1.094 1.374 1.819 1.705 1.698 2.013 1.819 1.704 1.694 2.001 9,685. 9,685. 9,685. 9,685.
9 0.438 0.157 0.033 0.232 1.409 1.324 1.307 1.460 2.090 1.995 1.977 2.151 2.044 1.989 1.976 2.138 9,431. 9,431. 9,431. 9,431.
12 0.837 0.561 0.422 0.194 1.565 1.356 1.300 1.544 2.261 2.059 1.999 2.213 2.100 1.981 1.954 2.204 9,567. 9,567. 9,567. 9,567.
15 0.479 0.142 -0.016 0.122 1.544 1.368 1.339 1.577 2.088 1.876 1.840 2.100 2.032 1.871 1.840 2.096 10,085. 10,085. 10,085. 10,085.
18 -0.612 -0.876 -0.993 -0.673 1.694 1.629 1.647 1.696 2.153 2.079 2.107 2.176 2.064 1.886 1.858 2.070 10,516. 10,516. 10,516. 10,516.
21 -0.640 -0.856 -0.924 -0.718 1.821 1.762 1.752 1.804 2.539 2.460 2.442 2.528 2.457 2.307 2.260 2.425 10,403. 10,403. 10,403. 10,403.
24 -0.070 -0.272 -0.374 -0.504 1.864 1.754 1.735 1.887 2.581 2.462 2.445 2.591 2.580 2.447 2.416 2.542 10,283. 10,283. 10,283. 10,283.
27 -0.300 -0.559 -0.684 -0.611 2.082 1.970 1.966 2.055 2.706 2.585 2.588 2.694 2.690 2.525 2.496 2.624 9,964. 9,964. 9,964. 9,964.
30 -0.303 -0.575 -0.727 -0.306 2.244 2.113 2.101 2.156 2.925 2.796 2.796 2.832 2.909 2.736 2.700 2.816 9,687. 9,687. 9,687. 9,687.
33 0.231 -0.066 -0.229 -0.331 2.456 2.272 2.218 2.318 3.218 3.036 2.988 3.086 3.210 3.036 2.979 3.069 9,430. 9,430. 9,430. 9,430.
36 0.086 -0.234 -0.406 -0.694 2.650 2.469 2.425 2.555 3.487 3.323 3.281 3.380 3.486 3.315 3.256 3.309 9,564. 9,564. 9,564. 9,564.
39 0.348 0.044 -0.135 -0.431 2.738 2.514 2.456 2.551 3.503 3.284 3.232 3.272 3.486 3.284 3.230 3.244 10,091. 10,091. 10,091. 10,091.
42 -0.533 -0.820 -0.953 -0.770 2.731 2.601 2.576 2.560 3.420 3.328 3.320 3.290 3.378 3.225 3.180 3.199 10,513. 10,513. 10,513. 10,513.
45 -0.434 -0.663 -0.754 -0.856 2.691 2.597 2.569 2.585 3.585 3.514 3.493 3.494 3.559 3.452 3.410 3.388 10,402. 10,402. 10,402. 10,402.
48 0.166 -0.050 -0.179 -0.937 2.713 2.595 2.567 2.654 3.620 3.504 3.481 3.559 3.617 3.504 3.477 3.434 10,282. 10,282. 10,282. 10,282.
51 -0.067 -0.318 ******* -0.342 2.839 2.710 ******* 2.743 3.630 3.509 ******* 3.510 3.630 3.495 -9999.00 3.493 10,141. 10,141. 0. 10,141.
54 -0.136 -0.389 ******* -0.495 2.992 2.833 ******* 2.864 3.868 3.735 ******* 3.694 3.866 3.715 -9999.00 3.661 9,864. 9,864. 0. 9,864.
57 0.508 0.186 ******* -0.197 3.150 2.949 ******* 2.907 4.054 3.861 ******* 3.818 4.022 3.857 -9999.00 3.813 9,606. 9,606. 0. 9,606.
60 0.550 0.225 ******* -0.420 3.189 2.966 ******* 2.921 4.135 3.920 ******* 3.840 4.099 3.913 -9999.00 3.817 9,738. 9,738. 0. 9,738.
63 0.748 0.433 ******* 0.017 3.314 3.090 ******* 3.005 4.172 3.941 ******* 3.797 4.104 3.917 -9999.00 3.797 10,264. 10,264. 0. 10,264.
66 -0.344 -0.621 ******* -0.640 3.250 3.112 ******* 3.022 4.008 3.901 ******* 3.796 3.993 3.851 -9999.00 3.742 10,701. 10,701. 0. 10,701.
69 -0.170 -0.386 ******* -0.911 3.261 3.157 ******* 3.134 4.199 4.111 ******* 4.119 4.196 4.093 -9999.00 4.017 10,572. 10,572. 0. 10,572.
72 0.504 0.292 ******* -0.679 3.428 3.309 ******* 3.331 4.485 4.354 ******* 4.445 4.457 4.344 -9999.00 4.393 10,349. 10,349. 0. 10,349.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of PSLR (SLP millibars ) From 2002120100 to 2003022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid 
0 1.795 1.541 1.261 0.363 1.940 1.755 1.562 1.066 2.989 2.815 2.619 1.787 2.390 2.356 2.296 1.750 9,853. 9,853. 6,863. 9,853.
3 1.147 0.983 0.578 -0.256 1.525 1.453 1.263 1.385 2.061 1.988 1.825 1.927 1.712 1.728 1.731 1.910 10,378. 10,378. 7,230. 10,378.
6 0.016 0.053 0.015 -0.219 1.229 1.156 1.151 1.344 1.653 1.579 1.565 1.804 1.653 1.578 1.565 1.791 10,634. 10,634. 10,634. 10,634.
9 -0.377 -0.455 -0.467 -0.756 1.398 1.349 1.337 1.544 2.119 2.059 2.034 2.270 2.085 2.008 1.980 2.140 10,520. 10,520. 10,520. 10,520.
12 0.452 0.457 0.398 -0.701 1.414 1.327 1.291 1.575 2.082 1.995 1.960 2.276 2.032 1.943 1.919 2.166 10,400. 10,400. 10,400. 10,400.
15 0.299 0.159 0.064 -0.103 1.556 1.467 1.444 1.610 2.129 2.019 1.994 2.201 2.108 2.013 1.993 2.198 10,078. 10,078. 10,078. 10,078.
18 0.272 0.106 -0.039 -0.239 1.761 1.640 1.598 1.765 2.396 2.269 2.233 2.396 2.380 2.267 2.232 2.384 9,799. 9,799. 9,799. 9,799.
21 0.515 0.300 0.147 -0.232 2.028 1.868 1.807 1.910 2.755 2.611 2.554 2.599 2.707 2.593 2.550 2.589 9,537. 9,537. 9,537. 9,537.
24 0.667 0.422 0.266 -0.351 2.226 2.029 1.954 2.087 3.001 2.808 2.742 2.797 2.926 2.776 2.729 2.775 9,673. 9,673. 9,673. 9,673.
27 0.551 0.304 0.133 -0.393 2.220 2.019 1.951 2.077 2.895 2.680 2.612 2.694 2.842 2.663 2.609 2.665 10,206. 10,206. 10,206. 10,206.
30 -0.374 -0.611 -0.736 -0.791 2.172 2.066 2.049 2.136 2.737 2.614 2.609 2.726 2.711 2.541 2.503 2.609 10,634. 10,634. 10,634. 10,634.
33 -0.352 -0.554 -0.633 -1.114 2.155 2.056 2.033 2.261 2.901 2.790 2.766 3.043 2.880 2.735 2.693 2.832 10,518. 10,518. 10,518. 10,518.
36 0.176 -0.026 -0.141 -0.845 2.186 2.074 2.048 2.276 2.953 2.828 2.803 3.069 2.948 2.828 2.800 2.951 10,399. 10,399. 10,399. 10,399.
39 0.312 0.090 -0.051 -0.410 2.353 2.210 2.167 2.330 3.068 2.912 2.872 3.062 3.052 2.910 2.871 3.034 10,079. 10,079. 10,079. 10,079.
42 0.369 0.121 -0.047 -0.359 2.549 2.380 2.326 2.509 3.295 3.112 3.063 3.255 3.274 3.110 3.063 3.235 9,800. 9,800. 9,800. 9,800.
45 0.714 0.433 0.259 -0.219 2.811 2.590 2.512 2.744 3.594 3.365 3.293 3.502 3.522 3.337 3.283 3.496 9,537. 9,537. 9,537. 9,537.
48 0.565 0.262 0.082 -0.723 2.913 2.672 2.593 2.849 3.760 3.529 3.467 3.652 3.717 3.519 3.466 3.580 9,671. 9,671. 9,671. 9,671.
51 0.570 0.285 ******* -0.507 3.040 2.799 ******* 2.865 3.814 3.569 ******* 3.613 3.771 3.558 -9999.00 3.577 10,382. 10,382. 0. 10,382.
54 -0.502 -0.745 ******* -1.054 2.973 2.820 ******* 2.979 3.736 3.625 ******* 3.803 3.702 3.548 -9999.00 3.655 10,818. 10,818. 0. 10,818.
57 -0.305 -0.524 ******* -1.062 3.005 2.904 ******* 3.128 3.984 3.925 ******* 4.217 3.972 3.890 -9999.00 4.081 10,690. 10,690. 0. 10,690.
60 0.291 0.094 ******* -0.977 3.155 3.057 ******* 3.211 4.238 4.159 ******* 4.377 4.228 4.158 -9999.00 4.266 10,566. 10,566. 0. 10,566.
63 0.133 -0.082 ******* -0.405 3.328 3.220 ******* 3.251 4.351 4.268 ******* 4.252 4.349 4.267 -9999.00 4.233 10,245. 10,245. 0. 10,245.
66 0.064 -0.178 ******* -0.438 3.528 3.380 ******* 3.463 4.575 4.455 ******* 4.440 4.575 4.452 -9999.00 4.418 9,964. 9,964. 0. 9,964.
69 0.787 0.494 ******* -0.282 3.740 3.549 ******* 3.522 4.782 4.607 ******* 4.527 4.717 4.581 -9999.00 4.518 9,702. 9,702. 0. 9,702.
72 0.928 0.604 ******* -0.410 3.808 3.605 ******* 3.539 4.995 4.805 ******* 4.603 4.908 4.767 -9999.00 4.585 9,834. 9,834. 0. 9,834.