MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2002120100 to 2003022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid 
0 0.079 -0.088 -0.201 -1.440 1.959 1.865 1.876 2.529 2.970 2.875 2.816 3.578 2.969 2.873 2.809 3.276 51,783. 51,783. 37,881. 51,783.
3 0.801 0.909 0.950 -0.671 2.040 1.984 1.928 2.217 3.092 3.044 2.921 3.325 2.986 2.905 2.762 3.257 52,002. 52,002. 37,609. 52,002.
6 0.830 1.048 1.223 -0.425 2.210 2.177 2.166 2.275 3.288 3.265 3.263 3.347 3.181 3.093 3.025 3.320 52,006. 52,006. 52,006. 52,006.
9 0.825 1.108 1.373 -0.356 2.318 2.300 2.306 2.341 3.412 3.419 3.447 3.438 3.311 3.235 3.162 3.420 49,871. 49,871. 49,871. 49,871.
12 0.790 1.129 1.429 -0.324 2.406 2.394 2.407 2.418 3.499 3.525 3.567 3.525 3.409 3.340 3.269 3.510 50,688. 50,688. 50,688. 50,688.
15 0.739 1.084 1.392 -0.300 2.445 2.420 2.420 2.445 3.567 3.577 3.605 3.592 3.489 3.409 3.325 3.579 51,144. 51,144. 51,144. 51,144.
18 -0.362 -0.031 0.184 -0.617 2.333 2.154 2.054 2.466 3.478 3.271 3.150 3.619 3.459 3.271 3.145 3.566 52,168. 52,168. 52,168. 52,168.
21 -0.658 -0.313 -0.159 -0.812 2.504 2.289 2.189 2.646 3.584 3.356 3.244 3.748 3.523 3.341 3.240 3.659 52,147. 52,147. 52,147. 52,147.
24 -0.228 0.031 0.186 -0.922 2.198 2.024 1.960 2.354 3.238 3.066 3.002 3.405 3.230 3.066 2.996 3.278 51,581. 51,581. 51,581. 51,581.
27 0.598 0.790 1.020 -0.522 2.098 2.036 2.041 2.211 3.153 3.099 3.112 3.313 3.096 2.996 2.940 3.272 51,763. 51,763. 51,763. 51,763.
30 0.672 0.926 1.207 -0.214 2.257 2.211 2.236 2.284 3.337 3.308 3.352 3.376 3.269 3.176 3.127 3.370 52,159. 52,159. 52,159. 52,159.
33 0.726 1.003 1.295 -0.192 2.390 2.347 2.364 2.400 3.484 3.459 3.503 3.516 3.408 3.311 3.255 3.511 49,939. 49,939. 49,939. 49,939.
36 0.682 1.010 1.324 -0.200 2.507 2.457 2.466 2.529 3.618 3.583 3.626 3.658 3.553 3.438 3.376 3.653 50,770. 50,770. 50,770. 50,770.
39 0.668 1.009 1.327 -0.178 2.574 2.506 2.506 2.604 3.714 3.662 3.689 3.772 3.653 3.520 3.442 3.768 51,096. 51,096. 51,096. 51,096.
42 -0.492 -0.134 0.098 -0.577 2.494 2.285 2.188 2.567 3.650 3.404 3.293 3.744 3.617 3.402 3.292 3.699 52,143. 52,143. 52,143. 52,143.
45 -0.890 -0.456 -0.274 -0.813 2.743 2.498 2.408 2.738 3.832 3.577 3.473 3.844 3.727 3.548 3.462 3.757 52,091. 52,091. 52,091. 52,091.
48 -0.463 -0.142 0.040 -0.996 2.437 2.234 2.177 2.507 3.477 3.281 3.224 3.575 3.446 3.278 3.224 3.433 51,481. 51,481. 51,481. 51,481.
51 0.424 0.667 ******* -0.520 2.226 2.152 ******* 2.327 3.284 3.219 ******* 3.428 3.257 3.149 -9999.00 3.389 51,993. 51,993. 0. 51,993.
54 0.480 0.780 ******* -0.339 2.376 2.321 ******* 2.434 3.447 3.401 ******* 3.522 3.413 3.310 -9999.00 3.505 52,284. 52,284. 0. 52,284.
57 0.522 0.863 ******* -0.369 2.505 2.461 ******* 2.566 3.595 3.569 ******* 3.690 3.557 3.463 -9999.00 3.671 50,178. 50,178. 0. 50,178.
60 0.494 0.886 ******* -0.385 2.612 2.561 ******* 2.670 3.724 3.691 ******* 3.796 3.691 3.583 -9999.00 3.776 51,002. 51,002. 0. 51,002.
63 0.507 0.904 ******* -0.357 2.654 2.600 ******* 2.731 3.803 3.761 ******* 3.889 3.769 3.651 -9999.00 3.873 51,415. 51,415. 0. 51,415.
66 -0.578 -0.188 ******* -0.687 2.597 2.389 ******* 2.706 3.751 3.508 ******* 3.858 3.706 3.503 -9999.00 3.796 52,471. 52,471. 0. 52,471.
69 -0.930 -0.496 ******* -0.869 2.803 2.568 ******* 2.868 3.907 3.659 ******* 3.949 3.795 3.626 -9999.00 3.852 51,558. 51,558. 0. 51,558.
72 -0.460 -0.128 ******* -0.914 2.504 2.312 ******* 2.602 3.556 3.366 ******* 3.657 3.526 3.363 -9999.00 3.541 50,596. 50,596. 0. 50,596.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM1 (Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2002120100 to 2003022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid 
0 -0.758 -0.900 -1.122 -0.048 2.291 2.258 2.262 2.396 3.399 3.340 3.227 3.514 3.313 3.217 3.025 3.514 51,637. 51,637. 36,339. 51,637.
3 -0.040 0.198 0.355 0.053 2.290 2.199 2.048 2.408 3.408 3.329 3.041 3.571 3.408 3.323 3.020 3.570 52,067. 52,067. 36,617. 52,067.
6 -0.904 -0.708 -0.605 -0.248 2.333 2.173 2.085 2.314 3.496 3.296 3.183 3.479 3.378 3.219 3.125 3.470 52,780. 52,780. 52,780. 52,780.
9 -0.945 -0.818 -0.752 -0.499 2.460 2.293 2.209 2.465 3.550 3.361 3.256 3.573 3.422 3.260 3.168 3.538 52,745. 52,745. 52,745. 52,745.
12 -0.484 -0.412 -0.314 -0.657 2.110 1.975 1.909 2.207 3.147 2.999 2.928 3.254 3.110 2.970 2.911 3.187 52,026. 52,026. 52,026. 52,026.
15 0.298 0.370 0.582 -0.307 1.985 1.879 1.849 2.131 3.044 2.939 2.911 3.242 3.029 2.916 2.852 3.227 52,361. 52,361. 52,361. 52,361.
18 0.348 0.531 0.809 -0.002 2.143 2.060 2.037 2.199 3.208 3.130 3.126 3.289 3.190 3.084 3.019 3.289 52,631. 52,631. 52,631. 52,631.
21 0.393 0.620 0.910 0.046 2.258 2.186 2.152 2.292 3.342 3.280 3.270 3.403 3.319 3.221 3.141 3.403 50,456. 50,456. 50,456. 50,456.
24 0.404 0.685 0.991 0.033 2.385 2.306 2.263 2.386 3.476 3.417 3.404 3.505 3.452 3.348 3.256 3.505 51,292. 51,292. 51,292. 51,292.
27 0.417 0.709 1.021 0.059 2.448 2.359 2.319 2.446 3.575 3.509 3.495 3.603 3.551 3.436 3.343 3.603 51,721. 51,721. 51,721. 51,721.
30 -0.683 -0.388 -0.168 -0.379 2.427 2.220 2.097 2.447 3.585 3.346 3.205 3.612 3.520 3.324 3.201 3.592 52,766. 52,766. 52,766. 52,766.
33 -1.032 -0.680 -0.509 -0.658 2.649 2.403 2.296 2.618 3.738 3.478 3.358 3.719 3.593 3.411 3.319 3.660 52,706. 52,706. 52,706. 52,706.
36 -0.606 -0.339 -0.172 -0.797 2.332 2.140 2.067 2.354 3.360 3.168 3.095 3.403 3.305 3.150 3.090 3.308 51,990. 51,990. 51,990. 51,990.
39 0.327 0.503 0.750 -0.372 2.116 2.021 2.018 2.202 3.176 3.089 3.095 3.303 3.159 3.048 3.002 3.282 52,328. 52,328. 52,328. 52,328.
42 0.387 0.644 0.944 -0.145 2.278 2.198 2.210 2.325 3.351 3.283 3.311 3.415 3.329 3.220 3.174 3.412 52,590. 52,590. 52,590. 52,590.
45 0.415 0.721 1.029 -0.137 2.409 2.333 2.336 2.469 3.503 3.444 3.472 3.590 3.478 3.367 3.316 3.587 50,402. 50,402. 50,402. 50,402.
48 0.407 0.752 1.085 -0.167 2.526 2.445 2.445 2.580 3.636 3.573 3.606 3.719 3.613 3.493 3.439 3.715 51,253. 51,253. 51,253. 51,253.
51 0.421 0.771 ******* -0.135 2.593 2.497 ******* 2.646 3.740 3.661 ******* 3.820 3.716 3.578 -9999.00 3.817 51,994. 51,994. 0. 51,994.
54 -0.659 -0.310 ******* -0.545 2.578 2.356 ******* 2.651 3.732 3.476 ******* 3.825 3.674 3.462 -9999.00 3.786 53,059. 53,059. 0. 53,059.
57 -0.983 -0.598 ******* -0.750 2.803 2.563 ******* 2.814 3.901 3.645 ******* 3.918 3.775 3.596 -9999.00 3.845 52,926. 52,926. 0. 52,926.
60 -0.536 -0.239 ******* -0.854 2.512 2.304 ******* 2.533 3.552 3.345 ******* 3.587 3.512 3.336 -9999.00 3.484 52,146. 52,146. 0. 52,146.
63 0.373 0.577 ******* -0.490 2.284 2.190 ******* 2.377 3.351 3.266 ******* 3.476 3.331 3.214 -9999.00 3.442 52,442. 52,442. 0. 52,442.
66 0.437 0.704 ******* -0.275 2.442 2.362 ******* 2.501 3.527 3.458 ******* 3.599 3.500 3.385 -9999.00 3.589 52,755. 52,755. 0. 52,755.
69 0.484 0.798 ******* -0.249 2.585 2.524 ******* 2.635 3.694 3.647 ******* 3.776 3.663 3.558 -9999.00 3.768 50,640. 50,640. 0. 50,640.
72 0.458 0.830 ******* -0.256 2.710 2.649 ******* 2.747 3.843 3.794 ******* 3.907 3.816 3.702 -9999.00 3.899 51,478. 51,478. 0. 51,478.