MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2002120100 to 2003022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid 
0 -0.069 -0.134 -0.140 -1.937 1.899 1.914 1.911 2.810 2.885 2.903 2.835 3.845 2.884 2.900 2.832 3.322 51,783. 51,783. 37,881. 51,783.
3 0.183 0.270 0.269 -1.071 1.899 1.854 1.806 2.341 2.890 2.855 2.738 3.427 2.884 2.842 2.725 3.255 52,002. 52,002. 37,609. 52,002.
6 0.244 0.396 0.535 -0.768 2.047 1.991 1.961 2.291 3.040 2.996 2.971 3.318 3.031 2.969 2.922 3.228 52,006. 52,006. 52,006. 52,006.
9 0.256 0.454 0.631 -0.682 2.144 2.093 2.052 2.311 3.156 3.119 3.085 3.356 3.146 3.086 3.020 3.286 49,871. 49,871. 49,871. 49,871.
12 0.239 0.463 0.656 -0.617 2.228 2.173 2.129 2.353 3.246 3.206 3.171 3.404 3.237 3.172 3.103 3.348 50,688. 50,688. 50,688. 50,688.
15 0.187 0.413 0.617 -0.601 2.274 2.197 2.144 2.377 3.325 3.265 3.219 3.466 3.320 3.239 3.159 3.414 51,144. 51,144. 51,144. 51,144.
18 -0.348 -0.064 0.140 -0.719 2.194 2.069 2.002 2.355 3.269 3.140 3.066 3.435 3.250 3.140 3.062 3.359 52,168. 52,168. 52,168. 52,168.
21 -0.595 -0.155 0.049 -0.932 2.445 2.301 2.256 2.626 3.510 3.381 3.334 3.684 3.460 3.378 3.334 3.564 52,147. 52,147. 52,147. 52,147.
24 -0.701 -0.375 -0.200 -1.552 2.265 2.046 1.964 2.655 3.270 3.078 3.006 3.679 3.194 3.055 2.999 3.336 51,581. 51,581. 51,581. 51,581.
27 -0.035 0.134 0.308 -0.896 2.002 1.898 1.847 2.281 2.998 2.906 2.861 3.371 2.998 2.903 2.844 3.250 51,763. 51,763. 51,763. 51,763.
30 0.083 0.248 0.437 -0.536 2.134 2.032 1.989 2.255 3.148 3.060 3.022 3.311 3.147 3.050 2.990 3.267 52,159. 52,159. 52,159. 52,159.
33 0.157 0.320 0.509 -0.503 2.249 2.146 2.095 2.345 3.278 3.182 3.136 3.412 3.274 3.166 3.095 3.374 49,939. 49,939. 49,939. 49,939.
36 0.143 0.329 0.530 -0.481 2.361 2.248 2.197 2.444 3.409 3.299 3.251 3.529 3.406 3.282 3.207 3.496 50,770. 50,770. 50,770. 50,770.
39 0.112 0.308 0.517 -0.473 2.429 2.296 2.235 2.523 3.508 3.383 3.322 3.647 3.506 3.369 3.281 3.616 51,096. 51,096. 51,096. 51,096.
42 -0.488 -0.176 0.046 -0.666 2.334 2.174 2.100 2.448 3.424 3.258 3.177 3.557 3.389 3.253 3.177 3.494 52,143. 52,143. 52,143. 52,143.
45 -0.828 -0.306 -0.076 -0.918 2.659 2.477 2.430 2.703 3.735 3.580 3.530 3.773 3.641 3.567 3.529 3.660 52,091. 52,091. 52,091. 52,091.
48 -0.910 -0.539 -0.342 -1.653 2.501 2.244 2.158 2.822 3.525 3.294 3.215 3.883 3.405 3.250 3.196 3.514 51,481. 51,481. 51,481. 51,481.
51 -0.197 0.012 ******* -0.882 2.164 2.031 ******* 2.378 3.180 3.060 ******* 3.474 3.174 3.060 -9999.00 3.360 51,993. 51,993. 0. 51,993.
54 -0.096 0.110 ******* -0.652 2.274 2.157 ******* 2.396 3.300 3.188 ******* 3.457 3.298 3.186 -9999.00 3.395 52,284. 52,284. 0. 52,284.
57 -0.041 0.187 ******* -0.676 2.381 2.279 ******* 2.503 3.426 3.330 ******* 3.599 3.426 3.324 -9999.00 3.535 50,178. 50,178. 0. 50,178.
60 -0.044 0.207 ******* -0.662 2.484 2.377 ******* 2.575 3.548 3.441 ******* 3.675 3.548 3.434 -9999.00 3.615 51,002. 51,002. 0. 51,002.
63 -0.035 0.213 ******* -0.647 2.525 2.412 ******* 2.641 3.626 3.513 ******* 3.772 3.625 3.506 -9999.00 3.717 51,415. 51,415. 0. 51,415.
66 -0.575 -0.233 ******* -0.774 2.426 2.270 ******* 2.570 3.523 3.355 ******* 3.671 3.476 3.347 -9999.00 3.588 52,471. 52,471. 0. 52,471.
69 -0.860 -0.347 ******* -0.959 2.730 2.553 ******* 2.832 3.816 3.664 ******* 3.883 3.718 3.647 -9999.00 3.763 51,558. 51,558. 0. 51,558.
72 -0.913 -0.523 ******* -1.501 2.573 2.330 ******* 2.876 3.610 3.382 ******* 3.924 3.493 3.341 -9999.00 3.626 50,596. 50,596. 0. 50,596.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 2002120100 to 2003022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid 
0 -0.779 -0.826 -0.990 -0.447 2.125 2.161 2.187 2.332 3.199 3.232 3.139 3.380 3.103 3.124 2.979 3.350 51,637. 51,637. 36,339. 51,637.
3 -0.661 -0.502 -0.423 -0.266 2.241 2.161 2.037 2.324 3.318 3.242 2.969 3.424 3.252 3.203 2.939 3.413 52,067. 52,067. 36,617. 52,067.
6 -0.926 -0.733 -0.621 -0.359 2.215 2.092 2.019 2.207 3.321 3.183 3.099 3.288 3.189 3.097 3.036 3.268 52,780. 52,780. 52,780. 52,780.
9 -0.856 -0.628 -0.510 -0.624 2.417 2.269 2.207 2.454 3.493 3.355 3.289 3.507 3.386 3.296 3.250 3.452 52,745. 52,745. 52,745. 52,745.
12 -0.987 -0.819 -0.699 -0.998 2.250 2.071 1.984 2.340 3.257 3.095 3.013 3.355 3.104 2.984 2.931 3.203 52,026. 52,026. 52,026. 52,026.
15 -0.392 -0.322 -0.172 -0.700 1.963 1.848 1.769 2.215 2.972 2.870 2.789 3.296 2.946 2.852 2.784 3.221 52,361. 52,361. 52,361. 52,361.
18 -0.286 -0.180 -0.008 -0.334 2.081 1.969 1.882 2.171 3.092 2.986 2.901 3.204 3.079 2.980 2.901 3.187 52,631. 52,631. 52,631. 52,631.
21 -0.210 -0.084 0.089 -0.270 2.171 2.057 1.962 2.218 3.198 3.091 2.997 3.272 3.192 3.090 2.996 3.260 50,456. 50,456. 50,456. 50,456.
24 -0.171 -0.021 0.157 -0.478 2.273 2.157 2.056 2.355 3.316 3.205 3.106 3.401 3.312 3.205 3.102 3.367 51,292. 51,292. 51,292. 51,292.
27 -0.157 0.006 0.191 -0.236 2.338 2.206 2.108 2.349 3.414 3.296 3.198 3.451 3.410 3.296 3.192 3.443 51,721. 51,721. 51,721. 51,721.
30 -0.710 -0.424 -0.222 -0.475 2.291 2.117 2.015 2.325 3.386 3.207 3.098 3.421 3.311 3.179 3.090 3.388 52,766. 52,766. 52,766. 52,766.
33 -0.958 -0.521 -0.304 -0.769 2.578 2.375 2.309 2.590 3.653 3.468 3.399 3.649 3.525 3.429 3.385 3.567 52,706. 52,706. 52,706. 52,706.
36 -1.046 -0.724 -0.541 -1.121 2.426 2.175 2.076 2.473 3.442 3.214 3.122 3.497 3.279 3.132 3.075 3.312 51,990. 51,990. 51,990. 51,990.
39 -0.316 -0.165 0.020 -0.739 2.087 1.946 1.883 2.259 3.103 2.978 2.916 3.339 3.087 2.973 2.916 3.257 52,328. 52,328. 52,328. 52,328.
42 -0.212 -0.046 0.147 -0.461 2.212 2.081 2.020 2.286 3.231 3.109 3.053 3.338 3.224 3.109 3.049 3.306 52,590. 52,590. 52,590. 52,590.
45 -0.164 0.028 0.220 -0.447 2.324 2.194 2.132 2.404 3.365 3.239 3.178 3.482 3.361 3.239 3.171 3.453 50,402. 50,402. 50,402. 50,402.
48 -0.146 0.058 0.262 -0.653 2.423 2.292 2.229 2.551 3.484 3.352 3.289 3.633 3.481 3.351 3.279 3.573 51,253. 51,253. 51,253. 51,253.
51 -0.143 0.064 ******* -0.425 2.488 2.342 ******* 2.547 3.582 3.438 ******* 3.683 3.579 3.437 -9999.00 3.659 51,994. 51,994. 0. 51,994.
54 -0.677 -0.342 ******* -0.627 2.413 2.232 ******* 2.513 3.513 3.321 ******* 3.633 3.447 3.304 -9999.00 3.578 53,059. 53,059. 0. 53,059.
57 -0.906 -0.451 ******* -0.847 2.723 2.536 ******* 2.776 3.813 3.640 ******* 3.848 3.704 3.612 -9999.00 3.754 52,926. 52,926. 0. 52,926.
60 -0.980 -0.638 ******* -1.173 2.580 2.330 ******* 2.634 3.613 3.377 ******* 3.673 3.478 3.317 -9999.00 3.481 52,146. 52,146. 0. 52,146.
63 -0.266 -0.098 ******* -0.860 2.243 2.109 ******* 2.427 3.273 3.146 ******* 3.521 3.262 3.145 -9999.00 3.415 52,442. 52,442. 0. 52,442.
66 -0.164 0.003 ******* -0.589 2.362 2.236 ******* 2.463 3.399 3.278 ******* 3.537 3.395 3.278 -9999.00 3.487 52,755. 52,755. 0. 52,755.
69 -0.106 0.085 ******* -0.560 2.484 2.373 ******* 2.569 3.544 3.437 ******* 3.682 3.543 3.436 -9999.00 3.640 50,640. 50,640. 0. 50,640.
72 -0.108 0.112 ******* -0.760 2.600 2.490 ******* 2.729 3.681 3.572 ******* 3.842 3.680 3.570 -9999.00 3.766 51,478. 51,478. 0. 51,478.