MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of WSP1 (Lowest Sigma Wind Speed Knots ) From 2002120100 to 2003022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid 
0 1.291 1.339 1.671 1.390 3.710 3.737 3.945 3.759 5.004 5.037 5.293 5.061 4.835 4.855 5.022 4.867 48,280. 48,280. 35,473. 48,280.
3 4.197 3.909 3.674 3.166 5.312 5.069 4.855 4.705 6.625 6.429 6.331 6.039 5.127 5.105 5.156 5.142 48,755. 48,755. 35,376. 48,755.
6 4.500 4.296 3.883 3.205 5.557 5.357 5.003 4.724 6.846 6.752 6.452 5.997 5.159 5.209 5.153 5.068 47,731. 47,731. 47,731. 47,731.
9 4.590 4.348 3.776 3.300 5.584 5.360 4.893 4.737 6.818 6.731 6.341 5.966 5.042 5.138 5.094 4.970 45,581. 45,581. 45,581. 45,581.
12 4.609 4.305 3.736 3.296 5.650 5.383 4.904 4.792 6.901 6.773 6.378 6.043 5.137 5.230 5.169 5.064 46,594. 46,594. 46,594. 46,594.
15 4.797 4.457 3.883 3.444 5.795 5.528 5.028 4.889 7.048 6.914 6.520 6.140 5.164 5.285 5.237 5.084 47,803. 47,803. 47,803. 47,803.
18 4.530 4.083 3.513 3.181 5.700 5.363 4.902 4.807 7.143 6.930 6.553 6.126 5.523 5.599 5.531 5.236 48,583. 48,583. 48,583. 48,583.
21 3.601 3.350 3.020 2.437 5.243 5.051 4.757 4.427 6.811 6.747 6.489 5.840 5.781 5.857 5.743 5.307 48,985. 48,985. 48,985. 48,985.
24 3.643 3.504 3.214 2.487 5.106 4.962 4.687 4.390 6.566 6.508 6.261 5.795 5.463 5.484 5.373 5.235 48,195. 48,195. 48,195. 48,195.
27 4.501 4.391 3.926 3.172 5.661 5.555 5.163 4.774 7.023 7.017 6.701 6.135 5.391 5.474 5.430 5.252 48,580. 48,580. 48,580. 48,580.
30 4.736 4.524 3.977 3.402 5.828 5.659 5.233 4.939 7.130 7.137 6.791 6.243 5.330 5.520 5.505 5.235 47,850. 47,850. 47,850. 47,850.
33 4.827 4.620 3.998 3.617 5.855 5.675 5.194 5.019 7.096 7.098 6.718 6.273 5.201 5.389 5.399 5.125 45,608. 45,608. 45,608. 45,608.
36 4.755 4.505 3.919 3.578 5.866 5.662 5.190 5.068 7.124 7.086 6.721 6.341 5.304 5.470 5.460 5.236 46,632. 46,632. 46,632. 46,632.
39 4.858 4.559 3.955 3.708 5.981 5.755 5.262 5.166 7.268 7.214 6.813 6.444 5.407 5.591 5.548 5.270 47,725. 47,725. 47,725. 47,725.
42 4.574 4.140 3.562 3.422 5.931 5.607 5.175 5.068 7.401 7.252 6.890 6.420 5.819 5.955 5.898 5.432 48,502. 48,502. 48,502. 48,502.
45 3.714 3.453 3.166 2.748 5.559 5.372 5.121 4.736 7.167 7.152 6.962 6.206 6.130 6.263 6.200 5.565 48,919. 48,919. 48,919. 48,919.
48 3.684 3.548 3.273 2.790 5.330 5.212 4.970 4.670 6.850 6.849 6.653 6.145 5.775 5.858 5.792 5.475 48,041. 48,041. 48,041. 48,041.
51 4.504 4.410 ******* 3.471 5.795 5.722 ******* 5.054 7.210 7.254 ******* 6.460 5.630 5.759 -9999.00 5.448 48,703. 48,703. 0. 48,703.
54 4.775 4.586 ******* 3.705 5.988 5.859 ******* 5.214 7.350 7.374 ******* 6.558 5.588 5.774 -9999.00 5.411 47,837. 47,837. 0. 47,837.
57 4.935 4.733 ******* 3.876 6.030 5.893 ******* 5.273 7.351 7.416 ******* 6.551 5.448 5.709 -9999.00 5.282 45,690. 45,690. 0. 45,690.
60 4.897 4.617 ******* 3.884 6.045 5.849 ******* 5.317 7.374 7.363 ******* 6.587 5.514 5.736 -9999.00 5.320 46,709. 46,709. 0. 46,709.
63 4.961 4.668 ******* 3.917 6.110 5.931 ******* 5.364 7.422 7.450 ******* 6.659 5.521 5.806 -9999.00 5.385 47,879. 47,879. 0. 47,879.
66 4.751 4.289 ******* 3.689 6.124 5.806 ******* 5.332 7.607 7.493 ******* 6.692 5.941 6.144 -9999.00 5.583 48,675. 48,675. 0. 48,675.
69 3.860 3.576 ******* 3.033 5.672 5.559 ******* 5.000 7.288 7.368 ******* 6.489 6.182 6.442 -9999.00 5.737 48,568. 48,568. 0. 48,568.
72 3.772 3.704 ******* 2.978 5.403 5.364 ******* 4.894 6.915 7.027 ******* 6.374 5.796 5.972 -9999.00 5.636 47,433. 47,433. 0. 47,433.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of WSP1 (Lowest Sigma Wind Speed Knots ) From 2002120100 to 2003022812

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  GFS  1° grid 
0 2.335 2.385 2.621 2.426 4.181 4.216 4.482 4.241 5.453 5.496 5.839 5.524 4.928 4.951 5.217 4.963 47,365. 47,365. 33,557. 47,365.
3 4.801 4.341 3.898 3.365 5.749 5.350 5.041 4.792 7.019 6.697 6.516 6.073 5.120 5.100 5.222 5.056 48,548. 48,548. 34,321. 48,548.
6 4.407 3.969 3.473 2.991 5.589 5.206 4.795 4.659 7.097 6.811 6.445 6.003 5.563 5.535 5.430 5.204 49,155. 49,155. 49,155. 49,155.
9 3.245 3.017 2.661 2.233 5.013 4.784 4.457 4.295 6.594 6.496 6.178 5.691 5.740 5.753 5.575 5.235 49,579. 49,579. 49,579. 49,579.
12 3.340 3.299 3.010 2.296 4.886 4.745 4.473 4.262 6.305 6.264 6.029 5.638 5.348 5.325 5.224 5.149 48,618. 48,618. 48,618. 48,618.
15 4.367 4.240 3.795 3.002 5.512 5.371 4.977 4.626 6.815 6.783 6.445 5.937 5.233 5.294 5.210 5.122 49,176. 49,176. 49,176. 49,176.
18 4.624 4.418 3.860 3.228 5.693 5.500 5.045 4.770 6.942 6.912 6.549 6.037 5.177 5.316 5.290 5.102 48,312. 48,312. 48,312. 48,312.
21 4.827 4.544 3.913 3.478 5.794 5.560 5.051 4.867 7.017 6.959 6.554 6.106 5.093 5.270 5.257 5.019 46,104. 46,104. 46,104. 46,104.
24 4.809 4.516 3.895 3.470 5.848 5.611 5.097 4.936 7.096 7.038 6.625 6.195 5.218 5.398 5.360 5.132 47,138. 47,138. 47,138. 47,138.
27 4.841 4.539 3.904 3.479 5.891 5.667 5.132 4.960 7.164 7.108 6.685 6.223 5.281 5.471 5.427 5.159 48,339. 48,339. 48,339. 48,339.
30 4.492 4.055 3.477 3.247 5.785 5.474 5.008 4.910 7.227 7.075 6.683 6.237 5.662 5.798 5.707 5.326 49,116. 49,116. 49,116. 49,116.
33 3.522 3.257 2.947 2.602 5.316 5.122 4.868 4.574 6.900 6.839 6.625 6.023 5.933 6.013 5.933 5.432 49,525. 49,525. 49,525. 49,525.
36 3.565 3.456 3.158 2.652 5.170 5.048 4.794 4.549 6.654 6.639 6.423 5.990 5.619 5.668 5.593 5.371 48,568. 48,568. 48,568. 48,568.
39 4.491 4.348 3.883 3.370 5.737 5.613 5.228 4.929 7.129 7.136 6.816 6.302 5.537 5.659 5.602 5.325 49,119. 49,119. 49,119. 49,119.
42 4.686 4.491 3.943 3.566 5.871 5.715 5.295 5.078 7.203 7.201 6.874 6.392 5.470 5.629 5.631 5.305 48,250. 48,250. 48,250. 48,250.
45 4.837 4.582 3.975 3.773 5.916 5.723 5.248 5.153 7.176 7.157 6.788 6.417 5.301 5.497 5.502 5.191 46,048. 46,048. 46,048. 46,048.
48 4.801 4.489 3.926 3.774 5.948 5.718 5.282 5.209 7.267 7.221 6.888 6.509 5.455 5.656 5.660 5.304 47,085. 47,085. 47,085. 47,085.
51 4.932 4.601 ******* 3.906 6.080 5.852 ******* 5.319 7.417 7.358 ******* 6.622 5.540 5.742 -9999.00 5.347 48,447. 48,447. 0. 48,447.
54 4.691 4.262 ******* 3.746 6.073 5.767 ******* 5.320 7.605 7.474 ******* 6.734 5.986 6.140 -9999.00 5.596 49,248. 49,248. 0. 49,248.
57 3.936 3.651 ******* 3.025 5.764 5.571 ******* 4.972 7.455 7.437 ******* 6.527 6.331 6.479 -9999.00 5.784 49,593. 49,593. 0. 49,593.
60 3.884 3.780 ******* 2.886 5.515 5.424 ******* 4.827 7.111 7.157 ******* 6.364 5.957 6.077 -9999.00 5.672 48,601. 48,601. 0. 48,601.
63 4.609 4.536 ******* 3.417 5.908 5.831 ******* 5.097 7.343 7.423 ******* 6.560 5.716 5.876 -9999.00 5.600 49,154. 49,154. 0. 49,154.
66 4.790 4.663 ******* 3.613 6.034 5.938 ******* 5.230 7.436 7.482 ******* 6.605 5.687 5.852 -9999.00 5.530 48,276. 48,276. 0. 48,276.
69 4.863 4.691 ******* 3.795 6.015 5.890 ******* 5.293 7.332 7.395 ******* 6.593 5.487 5.716 -9999.00 5.392 46,101. 46,101. 0. 46,101.
72 4.810 4.617 ******* 3.764 6.046 5.908 ******* 5.307 7.373 7.439 ******* 6.616 5.589 5.833 -9999.00 5.441 47,136. 47,136. 0. 47,136.