MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1997092912 to 1999121212

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -1.187 -0.870 ******* 0.239 2.377 2.164 ******* 2.786 3.140 2.919 ******* 3.559 2.907 2.786 -9999.00 3.551 53,783. 53,783. 0. 50,334.
3 0.154 0.504 ******* -1.052 2.038 1.878 ******* 2.707 2.701 2.586 ******* 3.357 2.697 2.537 -9999.00 3.188 52,956. 52,956. 0. 45,409.
6 0.596 0.900 ******* -0.885 2.105 2.029 ******* 2.544 2.774 2.762 ******* 3.154 2.710 2.611 -9999.00 3.028 48,946. 48,946. 0. 45,822.
9 0.690 1.007 ******* -0.952 2.169 2.119 ******* 2.517 2.876 2.892 ******* 3.141 2.792 2.711 -9999.00 2.993 47,151. 47,151. 0. 40,594.
12 0.828 1.134 1.187 -0.969 2.223 2.199 2.218 2.494 2.967 3.012 3.056 3.138 2.849 2.790 2.816 2.985 46,763. 46,763. 46,763. 43,566.
15 0.563 0.919 0.824 -0.513 2.208 2.128 2.088 2.498 2.952 2.901 2.844 3.183 2.898 2.751 2.722 3.142 52,868. 52,868. 52,868. 45,382.
18 -0.260 0.219 0.026 0.705 2.314 2.090 2.035 2.717 3.090 2.861 2.789 3.471 3.079 2.853 2.789 3.399 52,710. 52,710. 52,710. 49,345.
21 -0.879 -0.321 -0.516 1.007 2.510 2.198 2.165 3.059 3.363 3.053 2.996 3.896 3.247 3.036 2.951 3.763 52,323. 52,323. 52,323. 44,724.
24 -1.161 -0.644 -0.853 0.066 2.508 2.165 2.164 2.850 3.387 3.019 3.000 3.627 3.182 2.950 2.876 3.627 52,082. 52,082. 52,082. 47,864.
27 -0.206 0.064 -0.144 -0.703 2.205 1.957 1.949 2.685 2.931 2.706 2.690 3.342 2.924 2.706 2.686 3.268 51,437. 51,437. 51,437. 44,203.
30 0.300 0.546 0.453 -0.621 2.172 2.042 1.986 2.520 2.867 2.783 2.715 3.131 2.851 2.729 2.677 3.068 47,435. 47,435. 47,435. 44,476.
33 0.400 0.674 0.651 -0.775 2.227 2.143 2.086 2.518 2.945 2.904 2.839 3.150 2.917 2.825 2.764 3.053 45,531. 45,531. 45,531. 39,280.
36 0.534 0.807 0.817 -0.874 2.288 2.236 2.183 2.532 3.036 3.024 2.970 3.205 2.988 2.914 2.856 3.083 45,664. 45,664. 45,664. 42,536.
39 0.257 0.539 ******* -0.443 2.300 2.187 ******* 2.552 3.090 3.007 ******* 3.262 3.079 2.959 -9999.00 3.232 52,336. 52,336. 0. 45,116.
42 -0.647 -0.219 ******* 0.758 2.489 2.235 ******* 2.851 3.367 3.096 ******* 3.646 3.305 3.088 -9999.00 3.566 51,738. 51,738. 0. 48,468.
45 -1.230 -0.655 ******* 0.935 2.776 2.457 ******* 3.212 3.739 3.405 ******* 4.112 3.531 3.342 -9999.00 4.004 51,026. 51,026. 0. 43,578.
48 -1.539 -0.950 ******* 0.009 2.886 2.514 ******* 3.100 3.884 3.478 ******* 3.929 3.566 3.346 -9999.00 3.929 46,155. 46,155. 0. 42,476.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1997092912 to 1999121212

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 2.152 2.293 ******* -0.940 2.700 2.712 ******* 2.742 3.718 3.753 ******* 3.522 3.032 2.971 -9999.00 3.394 48,846. 48,846. 0. 46,319.
3 0.894 1.066 ******* -0.696 2.164 2.083 ******* 2.431 2.939 2.889 ******* 3.083 2.800 2.685 -9999.00 3.004 55,366. 55,366. 0. 48,536.
6 -0.041 0.353 ******* 0.556 2.227 2.042 ******* 2.621 2.982 2.814 ******* 3.329 2.982 2.791 -9999.00 3.282 54,894. 54,894. 0. 52,127.
9 -0.714 -0.253 ******* 0.853 2.418 2.149 ******* 2.972 3.264 3.011 ******* 3.775 3.185 3.001 -9999.00 3.677 54,868. 54,868. 0. 47,615.
12 -1.045 -0.605 -0.535 -0.011 2.404 2.098 2.087 2.776 3.278 2.935 2.939 3.534 3.107 2.872 2.890 3.534 54,290. 54,290. 54,290. 50,388.
15 -0.159 0.063 0.239 -0.754 2.142 1.897 1.904 2.659 2.885 2.666 2.686 3.304 2.881 2.666 2.675 3.217 53,230. 53,230. 53,230. 46,176.
18 0.329 0.515 0.899 -0.653 2.126 1.980 2.093 2.488 2.847 2.749 2.900 3.078 2.828 2.701 2.758 3.008 49,261. 49,261. 49,261. 46,638.
21 0.404 0.621 1.099 -0.793 2.179 2.067 2.236 2.473 2.925 2.855 3.092 3.087 2.897 2.787 2.890 2.983 47,586. 47,586. 47,586. 41,229.
24 0.500 0.723 1.264 -0.893 2.238 2.154 2.377 2.480 3.018 2.972 3.276 3.127 2.977 2.883 3.022 2.997 47,826. 47,826. 47,826. 45,058.
27 0.224 0.500 0.984 -0.439 2.253 2.116 2.286 2.505 3.063 2.953 3.146 3.185 3.055 2.911 2.988 3.154 53,944. 53,944. 53,944. 46,916.
30 -0.601 -0.184 0.075 0.784 2.430 2.170 2.193 2.776 3.306 3.009 3.047 3.551 3.251 3.003 3.047 3.463 53,594. 53,594. 53,594. 50,709.
33 -1.125 -0.602 -0.456 1.012 2.675 2.349 2.315 3.126 3.618 3.274 3.237 3.994 3.439 3.219 3.205 3.863 52,893. 52,893. 52,893. 45,745.
36 -1.393 -0.876 -0.765 0.016 2.719 2.354 2.312 2.935 3.683 3.274 3.230 3.730 3.409 3.154 3.138 3.730 52,493. 52,493. 52,493. 48,425.
39 -0.495 -0.226 ******* -0.816 2.350 2.098 ******* 2.785 3.171 2.942 ******* 3.467 3.133 2.933 -9999.00 3.370 52,538. 52,538. 0. 45,436.
42 0.073 0.286 ******* -0.713 2.248 2.118 ******* 2.576 3.008 2.936 ******* 3.215 3.007 2.922 -9999.00 3.135 48,278. 48,278. 0. 45,565.
45 0.208 0.423 ******* -0.887 2.287 2.184 ******* 2.587 3.052 3.002 ******* 3.246 3.045 2.972 -9999.00 3.123 45,569. 45,569. 0. 39,388.
48 0.348 0.564 ******* -0.974 2.347 2.279 ******* 2.642 3.139 3.131 ******* 3.390 3.120 3.080 -9999.00 3.247 42,739. 42,739. 0. 40,107.