MM5 Statistics

0Z Stats  12Z Stats

00Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999111500 to 2000022912

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 -0.071 -0.019 ******* -1.129 1.789 1.717 ******* 2.205 2.429 2.373 ******* 2.924 2.428 2.373 -9999.00 2.697 18,724. 18,724. 0. 18,311.
3 0.115 0.084 ******* -1.492 1.745 1.629 ******* 2.260 2.342 2.200 ******* 3.012 2.340 2.198 -9999.00 2.616 18,228. 18,228. 0. 17,825.
6 0.097 0.127 0.166 -1.468 1.851 1.741 1.761 2.349 2.470 2.336 2.372 3.146 2.468 2.333 2.366 2.783 18,255. 18,255. 15,975. 17,841.
9 0.107 0.167 -0.045 -1.489 1.929 1.827 1.822 2.399 2.570 2.433 2.421 3.222 2.568 2.428 2.421 2.857 17,355. 17,355. 15,135. 16,944.
12 0.193 0.248 0.111 -1.435 1.993 1.890 1.850 2.422 2.654 2.522 2.471 3.302 2.647 2.509 2.469 2.974 17,682. 17,682. 17,682. 17,293.
15 0.280 0.325 0.221 -1.365 2.110 1.995 1.956 2.463 2.784 2.640 2.600 3.342 2.769 2.620 2.591 3.051 17,974. 17,974. 17,974. 17,490.
18 0.072 0.139 -0.084 -0.798 1.993 1.900 1.878 2.056 2.667 2.553 2.501 2.816 2.666 2.549 2.499 2.700 18,538. 18,538. 18,538. 18,131.
21 -0.146 -0.028 -0.167 -0.589 2.290 2.219 2.176 2.034 3.109 3.042 2.981 2.756 3.106 3.042 2.977 2.693 18,106. 18,106. 18,106. 17,740.
24 -0.466 -0.423 -0.572 -1.288 2.189 2.056 2.027 2.286 2.887 2.778 2.742 3.048 2.849 2.746 2.681 2.762 18,372. 18,372. 18,372. 18,218.
27 0.117 0.041 -0.026 -1.216 1.912 1.802 1.773 2.174 2.523 2.389 2.339 2.965 2.520 2.388 2.339 2.705 18,040. 18,040. 18,040. 17,888.
30 0.218 0.150 0.144 -1.123 1.972 1.873 1.836 2.261 2.596 2.478 2.431 3.099 2.587 2.474 2.427 2.888 18,073. 18,073. 18,073. 17,921.
33 0.258 0.201 0.219 -1.059 2.049 1.942 1.902 2.329 2.703 2.574 2.526 3.179 2.690 2.566 2.517 2.997 17,203. 17,203. 17,203. 17,055.
36 0.345 0.294 0.327 -0.986 2.109 1.985 1.947 2.367 2.787 2.645 2.601 3.275 2.766 2.628 2.581 3.123 17,662. 17,662. 17,662. 17,518.
39 0.466 0.421 ******* -0.987 2.219 2.105 ******* 2.469 2.929 2.795 ******* 3.394 2.892 2.764 -9999.00 3.247 18,367. 18,367. 0. 18,198.
42 0.114 0.106 ******* -0.577 2.038 1.953 ******* 2.113 2.718 2.608 ******* 2.870 2.715 2.606 -9999.00 2.812 18,800. 18,800. 0. 18,636.
45 -0.170 -0.018 ******* -0.559 2.369 2.309 ******* 2.116 3.167 3.131 ******* 2.808 3.162 3.131 -9999.00 2.752 18,364. 18,364. 0. 18,180.
48 -0.486 -0.380 ******* -1.252 2.309 2.203 ******* 2.318 3.004 2.914 ******* 3.060 2.964 2.889 -9999.00 2.793 18,498. 18,498. 0. 18,331.

12Z Initialization Verification Statistics of TEM2 (Avg Sfc/Lowest Sigma Temp Kelvin ) From 1999111500 to 2000022912

Forecast Hour Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Square Error Standard Deviation Number of Obs
MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km  MM5  36 km  MM5  12 km  MM5   4 km  ETA  32 km 
0 1.616 1.542 ******* -1.623 2.293 2.234 ******* 2.597 3.102 3.052 ******* 3.484 2.648 2.634 -9999.00 3.083 17,936. 17,936. 0. 17,281.
3 0.810 0.672 ******* -1.593 2.031 1.890 ******* 2.525 2.749 2.564 ******* 3.382 2.627 2.474 -9999.00 2.983 18,376. 18,376. 0. 17,496.
6 0.329 0.318 0.412 -1.022 1.973 1.859 1.920 2.093 2.642 2.489 2.581 2.847 2.621 2.468 2.548 2.658 18,970. 18,970. 16,191. 18,305.
9 0.017 0.033 0.128 -0.819 2.245 2.157 2.275 2.118 3.051 2.948 3.086 2.823 3.051 2.948 3.084 2.701 18,512. 18,512. 15,983. 17,870.
12 -0.399 -0.432 -0.266 -1.452 2.130 2.006 1.970 2.390 2.823 2.713 2.688 3.168 2.795 2.679 2.675 2.816 18,163. 18,163. 18,163. 17,763.
15 0.062 -0.030 0.213 -1.441 1.874 1.750 1.727 2.330 2.467 2.304 2.276 3.149 2.467 2.303 2.266 2.800 17,832. 17,832. 17,832. 17,210.
18 0.132 0.061 0.340 -1.350 1.914 1.819 1.782 2.345 2.522 2.390 2.359 3.166 2.519 2.389 2.334 2.864 18,023. 18,023. 18,023. 17,618.
21 0.149 0.100 0.412 -1.317 1.976 1.878 1.838 2.411 2.605 2.464 2.436 3.249 2.601 2.462 2.401 2.970 17,182. 17,182. 17,182. 16,787.
24 0.202 0.147 0.475 -1.291 2.051 1.941 1.900 2.482 2.695 2.554 2.521 3.370 2.688 2.550 2.476 3.113 17,515. 17,515. 17,515. 17,098.
27 0.282 0.238 0.591 -1.223 2.172 2.053 2.027 2.521 2.847 2.695 2.686 3.423 2.834 2.685 2.620 3.197 18,218. 18,218. 18,218. 17,790.
30 0.034 0.023 0.250 -0.696 1.976 1.880 1.878 2.123 2.653 2.522 2.515 2.872 2.652 2.522 2.503 2.786 18,642. 18,642. 18,642. 18,204.
33 -0.141 -0.055 0.030 -0.618 2.275 2.227 2.227 2.123 3.074 3.041 3.048 2.827 3.071 3.041 3.048 2.759 18,228. 18,228. 18,228. 17,787.
36 -0.486 -0.446 -0.368 -1.298 2.204 2.078 2.051 2.344 2.886 2.783 2.769 3.097 2.845 2.747 2.744 2.812 18,255. 18,255. 18,255. 17,801.
39 0.042 -0.017 ******* -1.155 1.981 1.864 ******* 2.249 2.568 2.432 ******* 3.026 2.568 2.432 -9999.00 2.797 18,440. 18,440. 0. 17,944.
42 0.118 0.067 ******* -1.028 2.093 2.003 ******* 2.350 2.719 2.607 ******* 3.181 2.717 2.607 -9999.00 3.011 18,406. 18,406. 0. 17,910.
45 0.169 0.135 ******* -0.903 2.190 2.092 ******* 2.405 2.857 2.730 ******* 3.261 2.852 2.727 -9999.00 3.134 16,221. 16,221. 0. 15,585.
48 0.266 0.207 ******* -0.799 2.256 2.164 ******* 2.453 2.963 2.835 ******* 3.352 2.951 2.827 -9999.00 3.255 16,865. 16,865. 0. 16,381.